In an election marred by violence, charges of corruption and low voter turnout, the opposition PAN party in Baja California looks to retain its hold on the governorship in the key border state.
When the polls closed on Sunday night in Baja, both the Institutional Revolutionary Party or PRI and the Conservative National Action Party or PAN claimed victory, but early Monday preliminary results showed PAN with a 3 percent lead.
Yet that result may be tainted by charges of vote counting errors. Early Monday the Baja state electoral council announced that preliminary vote counts were unreliable because of “technical errors that occurred.” An official count will begin Wednesday.
Why does this election matter? As we reported last week, A PAN victory, ironically enough, is considered critical to PRI President Enrique Peña Nieto’s agenda for economic reform and revitalization. His so-called “Pact for Mexico” was a deal struck between his party and other major political players to push for more tax revenues and opening up the oil industry to private investment.
An overhaul of Pemex, the state-owned oil monopoly, could have huge implications for the exploitation of oil reserves in shale gas fields along the Texas border. A PAN victory in Baja would leave the political players in place on the national stage to continue the push for a broader federal reform package.
The election also matters because Baja California is a strategic partner to the U.S. It is home to the world’s busiest land border with more than $48 billion in goods traded through California’s ports of entry in 2012. As a key trading partner with the U.S., Baja’s political stability is vitally important to the region.
Yet Baja and its major city, Tijuana, struggle with monumental challenges like crime, population growth, a continued influx of migrants from all across Mexico and tens of thousands of deportees who land there each year from the U.S. In addition to legitimate trade, the vast majority of methamphetamine smuggled into the U.S. come through the San Diego ports of entry.
Five major cities in Baja appear to havesplit the ticket for mayorships — a PRI-led coalition has the lead in Tijuana, Tecate and Ensenada, while the PAN-led coalition is leading in Mexicali and Rosarito Beach.
Elsewhere in Mexico, elections were held for mayorships and state legislators in 14 other states. A PAN candidate has won a decisive and possibly historic victory in Nuevo Laredo, a city plagued by drug violence. In Cuidad Juarez, it looks like the PRI candidate has a slight lead over the PAN.
If this election is seen as a referendum on the PRI’s six-month-old rule of the country, the results are inconclusive. A troubling wave of election-related violence, however, reveals the raw nature of politics in Mexico and the destructive influence of organized crime in small towns across the country. At least nine politicians running for local posts were killed in the run up to the election, and analysts believe the violence is a result of drug cartels exerting their influence on local politicians.
The Associated Press quotes Jose Antonio Crespo from the Center for Economic Research and Teaching in Mexico City:
"There is starting to be violence every time there are elections, especially local elections. There is more violence in local elections because that is where the drug cartels have more influence than on the national level."
Turnout was low across the country — less than 4 percent — revealing a widespread cynicism about the electoral process. Further bolstering that theory: animal candidates. In a number of cities, mayoral candidates were local animals. A burro ran for mayor in Juarez, a chicken in Tepic and Morris the Cat ran for mayor in Xelapa.