Arizonans may finally believe the recession is behind us — at least those Arizonans outside of one county.
A new survey finds statewide consumer confidence at the highest level since 2007, except in Pima County.
Confidence is being driven by an increasing belief that family income will be higher in six months, and a shrinking number of pessimists who believe that business conditions in the state will get worse.
Economist Dennis Hoffman of Arizona State University said the index is more than just taking the attitudinal temperature of Arizonans. He said good news portends more good news — and vice versa.
"Absolutely, there is a feedback loop in this mechanism. So, if you're feeling good and you think your job prospects are going to continue, or that maybe there's even a raise in the not-too-distant future, you're much more likely to put down that down payment on an automobile, make that consumer durable purchase, spend," said Hoffman.
As to Pima County, Hoffman said the area has two main drivers. One is defense, which affects everything from the Air Force base to contractors like Raytheon. He said spending in that area is down. The other is the University of Arizona, which is laying off staff in the wake of state budget cuts.
"That's got to leave a mark, it seems to me," Hoffman said.