While El Niño has not delivered as much rain as hoped to the Southwest, climate models predict the weakening system will bring above-average precipitation through the rest of the spring. However, models now suggest La Niña may form after El Niño subsides.
The National Weather Service is saying all its climate models are indicating El Niño will weaken to neutral either late this spring or early summer. This resulted from sea surface temperatures decreasing across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific and a reduction in wind-caused oscillation during February.
Models also now give nearly a 50 percent chance of La Niña forming by fall. La Niña, characterized by cooler-than-average water temperatures, also occurs at irregular intervals though it often follows an El Niño. La Niña is known to cause below-average precipitation in the Southwest, but is also credited with creating stronger-than-average hurricane conditions in the Atlantic Ocean.
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