It may not be the heady days of a decade ago, but consumer confidence in Arizona is now the highest it's been since the national economy went down the drain.
A new report by the Behavior Research Center puts the confidence index for the state at 88.4. That's based on a scale of 100. And while that may not seem like much, it's literally double what it was at the beginning of 2009, in the depths of the Recession.
The index is based on how Arizonans see both current and future employment and business conditions.
What makes all this important is that even a perceived economic rebound can be self-fulfilling: If consumers believe things are getting better, they're more likely to spend money. And the increased spending boosts the economy, increasing the demand for products and services which, in turn, means companies need to hire more people.
"It is certainly a good signal to retailers that the second half of the year may be very active,'' said pollster Earl de Berge.
Economist Dennis Hoffman of the W.P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University echoed that optimism— "It's good that folks are feeling good,'' he said.
Hoffman said the numbers reflect what has been solid job growth in the private sector in Arizona. The most recent figures show the state adding 74,900 jobs year over year, an increase of 3.4 percent.
And Hoffman said that government jobs, notably in K-12 education, may pick up with schools getting a bump of new money from voter approval of Proposition 123.
But he also noted the survey of 700 adult heads of household was conducted between June 6 and 19, before voters in Great Britain approved "Brexit'' and withdrawal from the European Union.
There was an immediate drop in the U.S. stock market, though investors seem to now be taking a more tempered look at the vote. Hoffman said while the effect will be the greatest in Great Britain, it remains to be seen how the fallout from that affects the rest of the world.
Then there's the question of whether some of the factors that led to Brexit exist elsewhere, including here.
"Is there a latent or underlying distrust of institutions and establishments like there apparently is in Britain?'' Hoffman explained. "Is that a part of what the Arizona psyche is?''
And then there's politics. "Will they be disappointed by the election and will they hunker down and not spend?'' he mused.
The brightest spot in the survey, Hoffman said, was Pima County where optimism has really perked up, gaining more than 13 points..