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Q&AZ: Arizona's Potential Electoral College Gains

Q&AZ is supported in part by Sierra Nevada Brewing Company

KJZZ listener Enrique reached out to us through our Q&AZ program to ask if Arizona will receive more Electoral College votes after the 2020 census and what impact that will have on our status as a potential swing state. 

William Frey is a demographer and senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. He said the latest projections have Arizona picking up just one congressional district, “Along with Colorado, Montana, Oregon, and North Carolina. Florida should get two seats and Texas should get three seats," Frey said.

Frey said aside from a little more clout in the House of Representatives, going from 11 Electoral College votes to 12 won’t change the state’s standing that much with respect to presidential elections.

However, he does think changing demographics will make Arizona a toss-up in 2020 and in years to come.

He said potential 2020 voter demographics in Arizona will be about 71% white, 19% Latino, 7% Asian and other races, and 4% black.

Jimmy Jenkins was a producer and senior field correspondent at KJZZ from 2014 to 2021.