The most recent jobs report showed what economists call a startling decline in unemployment given the recent job losses during COVID-19 pandemic. April's unemployment rate reached 14.7%, its highest rate since before World War II. May's rate dropped to 13.3%, and more than 2 million jobs were added.
Economist Elliott Pollack says most economists expected the jobless number to continue increasing for May. Predictions were dire and dramatic.
"There were still businesses that were in trouble because they hadn't gotten their PPP money," Pollack said. "There were a lot businesses that were anticipated to never open again."
The phased reopening of the economy added jobs, and is cause for cautious optimism. But given the unprecedented nature of the COVID-19 pandemic, it's hard to predict with certainty.
"My thoughts, quite frankly, were that it would be July or August until we had some numbers that we could really say 'this is creating a trend,' but these numbers are so much stronger than anticipated that it can be only taken as a good sign," Pollack said. "Economists had it wrong because there's no history here. You basically know how recessions generally run — a specific pattern. You can usually make some judgments based on historic relationships. Here we have no historic relationships."
That said, Pollack says the growth is a good start.
"Hopefully it continues with the June jobs report," he said. "The expectations were very difficult to judge because we've never been here before."
