The parking lot at the Seventh Avenue and Camelback Park And Ride is completely empty. It's 8 a.m., but it doesn't look like rush hour. Two people board a passing bus, and just two more sit at the light rail station across the street.
Ridership on Valley Metro’s buses and light rail is down about 50% right now.
Even die-hard public transportation enthusiasts like Cory Kincaid haven't been riding.
“I hate having to drive. I have a car, but I drive it as little as I possibly can," said Kincaid, who bought his place in downtown Phoenix specifically to be near light rail. Lately though, Kincaid has been working from home due to the COVID-19 pandemic and he has not needed to ride for a few months.
“Now I leave my apartment once a week on Saturday to go pick up groceries and drop off the recycling and that’s it,” he said.
For Teresa Bourg, riding public transit with strangers always made her a little nervous, but she took the bus sometimes since she lives near a stop. Then, she saw a map that showed her ZIP code as a COVID-19 hot spot.
“Was I squeamish before? Slightly, yes. Now I’m very uncomfortable taking the bus or being at the bus stop," Bourg said.
Todd Barnes was planning to buy a car but he lost some income due to the pandemic so he’s had to rely on the bus. When he rides, he thinks a lot about how he’ll maintain social distancing.
“You don’t know what to expect when you get on the bus, it varies from driver to driver," Barnes said. "Some of them are awesome and do it great and I do feel safe, but I don’t know when that next bus is going to roll by."
And Valley Metro knows many of its riders are facing changes of circumstance or feeling new safety concerns.
“This is a new era," said Susan Tierney, communications manager for Valley Metro.
The agency surveyed about 1,500 riders or former riders to get a sense of the scale of these shifts in habits and attitudes. More than 80% of people surveyed said they plan to use public transit again someday, but they have concerns.
“They really want to see a decline in COVID-19 to ride more, and they want to see social distancing enforced," Tierney said.
"[Riders] really want to see a decline in COVID-19 to ride more, and they want to see social distancing enforced." — Susan Tierney, communications manager for Valley Metro
Research on the safety of buses and trains amid COVID-19 is still very early, said Marlon Boarnet, chair of the Department of Urban Planning and Spatial Analysis at the Sol Price School of Public Policy at the University of Southern California.
“The international experience appears to be quite varied," Boarnet said.
In New York City, at least 90 employees of the bus and subway system are reported to have died from COVID-19. But studies of outbreaks in Japan, Austria and France have found no links to public transit use.
The CDC currently recommends public transportation riders stay a few rows away from other passengers and avoid touching shared surfaces.
Valley Metro has increased cleaning of its buses and trains, riders are required to wear face coverings, and the agency plans to install protective barriers around drivers' seats.
But as transit systems adapt to unprecedented safety concerns, they’re also facing financial challenges.
“The pandemic and the associated economic difficulties have created a large decline in the funds that are available to transit agencies," Boarnet said.
Valley Metro riders paid about $11 million for bus and light rail tickets in fiscal year 2020, according to Valley Metro budget documents. For this fiscal year, fares are expected to bring in under $3 million, though fares make up only a portion of the system's budget. Valley Metro will use about $50 million in federal CARES Act funding to offset some shortfalls, but the agency is still planning for a 10% reduction in its capital and operating budgets this year.
All of this comes at a time when Valley Metro had been hoping to grow. But Tierney said projects like the South Central light rail extension and the Tempe streetcar are all still moving ahead as planned.
“It’s been a good time for construction because there’s less traffic on the streets and there’s been less people out," Tierney said.
For a place like Phoenix, that’s trying to expand its transit system, Boarnet said the pandemic will be a critical moment for messaging. Even if riders aren’t hopping on the bus or train right now, he said the city will somehow need to keep residents invested in long-term transportation infrastructure goals.
“If people kind of said, ‘OK, let’s forget it, no more transit,’ these cities would find themselves in a world of hurt once the coronavirus passes, because the underlying questions of access and sustainability will remain," Boarnet said.
Tierney said Valley Metro’s priority right now is educating riders about health precautions.
“It’s not only what we’re doing, it’s also what our riders need to do. So we definitely need to empower our riders with that kind of information," Tierney said.
Tierney said she’s confident in Valley Metro’s future, pointing out Phoenix voters have repeatedly expressed support for expansion of public transit. The challenge now will be making passengers feel safe enough to ride again.
