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Poll: Most Arizona voters want abortion to remain legal

The vast majority of Arizona voters want abortion to remain legal, at least in some circumstances, according to a new poll from the firm OH Predictive Insights. 

Among the 938 registered Arizona voters surveyed, 87% said they wanted abortion to remain legal in all or some cases. That’s likely to influence this year’s midterm elections. Three in five Arizonans said their vote would be very or somewhat impacted by a candidate’s stance on abortion. 

“The biggest takeaway candidates should gain from this data is that their position on abortion will impact Arizona voters’ decisions, but some more than others," said Mike Noble, OH Predictive Insights chief of research. "So deeply understanding your coalition is crucial this close to election day.” 

Gov. Doug Ducey in March  signed a law that will outlaw abortions after 15 weeks gestation in Arizona, except in certain medical emergencies. But Arizona lawmakers  could further restrict abortion access in the state if the U.S. Supreme Court fully overturns Roe v. Wade. A draft of a pending Supreme Court decision  obtained this month by Politico suggests the justices are preparing overturn the landmark 1973 decision which established the right to abortion nationwide. Arizona  still has a pre-Roe law on the books that outlaws abortion. 

Noble said concerns over restrictions to abortion access are likely to drive more Democratic voters to the polls this year. 

“All this uproar at the Supreme Court might be the kick in the side that Democratic voters need to compete with Republicans at the ballot box,” said Noble. 

But Noble noted a boost in turnout among Democrats and some Independents may not counterbalance Democratic President Biden’s low approval ratings. Noble said Republican voters have had a months-long lead in Arizona when it comes to voter enthusiasm. 

“The unknown part is whether this issue will have enough of an impact to offset the pro-GOP political climate,” Noble said. 

→  Could Arizona outlaw abortion? Supreme Court decisions could mean major changes

Katherine Davis-Young is a senior field correspondent reporting on a variety of issues, including public health and climate change.