Today, the Arizona Secretary of State’s Office randomly selected the ballot order for the state’s Republican and Democratic presidential preference elections that take place on March 19.
Secretary of State Adrian Fontes used a machine on loan from the Arizona State Lottery to conduct the ballot order selection. It determined where the nine Republicans and seven Democrats seeking their party’s nomination in Arizona will appear on the ballot.
Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie will appear at the top of Republican primary ballots next year, followed by Vivek Ramaswamy. Former Ambassador Nikki Haley will be in the sixth slot, followed by former President Donald Trump. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis will be in the ninth slot.
There is significant evidence that ballot order can impact the results of elections, though it likely won’t affect the Republican presidential primary.
“Candidates have known going back 100 years that being listed first confers an electoral advantage,” said Darren Grant, an associate professor at Sam Houston State University. Grant said President Woodrow Wilson, who was a college professor, actually wrote about the topic.
But Grant said a ballot order’s impact is mostly seen in local and statewide races, where it can affect election results by around three to five percent. He said that effect is lessened in higher-profile contests, like a presidential election.
“People have so much information about those races that ballot order is less important,” he said.
On the Democratic ballot, President Joe Biden will appear in the sixth slot amongst a field of mostly unknown candidates. Appearing third is Marianne Williamson, who ran for the Democratic nomination in 2020 but dropped out in January before Arizona’s primary.
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