The Arizona Supreme Court’s April ruling that said the state should follow a near-total abortion ban dating to 1864 did little to change voters' opinions. That’s one finding from a new poll from Noble Predictive Insights.
The poll was conducted in May among 1,003 registered Arizona voters. 40% of those polled said abortions should be legal in any circumstances, 49% said abortions should be allowed under certain circumstances, and 11% said it should be illegal in all cases.
The responses are nearly identical to polling on the same question from February, months before the ruling on the 1864 law.
"When Roe was overturned, a significant chunk of the electorate moved left on abortion. But the 1864 law didn’t have a comparable effect in Arizona," David Byler, Noble Predictive Insights' chief of research said in a press release. "The governor and legislature moved quickly on the 1864 law, so it didn’t change the landscape much."
The state legislature voted in early May to repeal the 1864 law. A law allowing abortions up to 15 weeks of gestation remains in effect in Arizona.
For those who think abortion should be allowed in some cases, the new poll asked what those circumstances might be. Byler said responses varied widely.
"Some favor an early 6-week limit, others stop at the first trimester, and others want a full ban. The pro-choice side is closer to consensus – and that’s part of why they’re on a winning streak," Byler said.
But a win for abortion rights supporters isn’t a given, Byler said.
Arizona is one of more than a dozen states likely to have an abortion access measure on the ballot in November. Abortion rights advocates have until July to gather enough signatures to qualify to put the issue before Arizona voters. The proposed Arizona for Abortion Access Act would amend the state constitution to allow abortions to the point of fetal viability, which is around 24 weeks of gestation.
A CBS News poll last month showed 65% of Arizonans would vote to support the potential ballot measure. But the new Noble Predictive Insights poll found voters were evenly split on the issue. 41% of respondents said they would support the potential ballot measure and 41% said they would oppose it.
“With an even split like this, those 18% of undecideds will make or break this ballot measure,” Byler said.
