Trump's immigration orders, tariffs could push food prices even higher, UA professor says

The cold snap Arizona and the rest of the country is experiencing will not be the thing to freeze out consumers in the grocery stores. Farmers will possibly be directly impacted by national policies changed by President Donald Trump, according to economics experts.

Grocery bills may increase as the impacts of an immigration crackdown and proposed tariffs impact start to take effect. Arizona producers rely heavily on undocumented workers and imports, including fertilizer, from Mexico, according to University of Arizona’s George Frisvold, a professor of agricultural and resource economics.

“So nationally it’s 41%, California is at 60%. So you know, these are people harvesting crops,” Frisvold said. “If these people go away, that would have a dramatic impact.”

According to experts, the price increase would be the equivalent of a sales tax.

“Right now, if you're buying food products, there is not a sales tax. What people would see is, ‘oh yep, now there is a tax on, you know, things that come from Mexico,'” Frisvold said. “If it’s a 25% tariff, that means everything will be 25% more expensive.”

Frisvold encouraged those concerned with food price trends to go to the USDA’s website to keep track of changes.

Frisvold said farmers were prepared for cold snaps and have adapted to grow certain crops within climates. After each season, farmers assess the demands of the different vegetables. Tariffs and possible labor shortages may impact growing patterns for the next season more than the weather.

“Production costs could go up, which could discourage planting,” Frisvold said.

Arizona food producers say inflation remains a problem for consumers and food prices are unlikely to come down for a while.

"Food costs have gone up, they’ve been up for a while. And they’re not going to go away overnight, unfortunately," said Julie Murphreem, a spokesperson with the Arizona Farm Bureau.

According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture's January Consumer Price Index for Food, "prices for all food are predicted to increase 2.2%" in 2025.

Inflation peaked at a 9.1% annual rate in June 2022 during worldwide supply chain problems after the economic shock of the coronavirus pandemic. Overall consumer prices have fallen since then, but have ticked up in recent months, from 2.4% in September to 2.9% in December, the latest figures available.

Murphree says the Farm Bureau has tips on how you can stretch your food dollar at fillyourplate.org.

Associated Press contributed to this report.