Enrollment fell at Valley districts following the pandemic. But the trend started before that

School funding is closely tied to student enrollment, and enrollment in public schools is declining. School closures and staffing cuts have been making news lately, as districts face difficult decisions on how to manage their budgets.

Of course there are many factors that are at play. But it can be helpful to really narrow in on some of the biggest reasons that have cascading effects.

Local education officials have listed three big ones: a declining birthrate in the Phoenix area, the high cost of housing, and the recent increased public funding for private education, notably through Empowerment Scholarship accounts.

Even the state’s largest district, Mesa Public Schools, has seen major enrollment declines. Though its trend goes further back than the pandemic. It has lost about 10,000 students in the last 10 years.

This is where birthrates have had cascading effects. Justin Wing is assistant Superintendent of human resources at Mesa Public Schools.

“The number of kiddos five years later or not in kinder are going to be less, and that count carries over every year. So there's a trickle-down effect," Wing said.

Mesa Public Schools continues to predict fewer students in the years ahead. Last week, the district reduced its workforce by about 200 administrative and teaching positions going into the next school year. That was through a combination of resignations, retirements and layoffs.

Wing says birth rates have declined for years in Arizona. A budget sheet for Mesa Public says birth rates are 18% lower now than a decade ago.

That decline of birth rates comes even though Maricopa County is among the fastest-growing in the country.

“They're able to buy a cheaper, bigger house now, but they don’t have the little ones coming to school either," Wing said.

Mariana Dale/KJZZ

Like Mesa, Scottsdale Unified School District has seen more students exit than enter.

SUSD Superintendent Scott Menzel says that over the last decade, the yearly decline in enrollment is in the hundreds.

“When you have, you know, nearly 2,000 students graduating and 700 fewer kindergartners enrolling, that explains part of the decline. But on average, we're losing between 350 and 400 per year over that that period," Menzel said.

For Scottsdale, Menzel says one of the largest obstacles for families is how expensive it can be to live there. According to real estate price tracker Redfin, the median Scottsdale home price is over a million dollars.

“We know that housing costs in Scottsdale are pretty high, which makes it more difficult for young families with school-aged children to acquire a home in our community," Menzel said.

Districts get funding based on enrollment, but can also use local overrides to set their funding. While home values in Scottsdale have helped, Menzel says there is no escape from the impact declining enrollment has on how much money districts get from the state.

However, some Valley school districts have seen growth especially, after the pandemic.

“After that, we had a slight uptick in our enrollment and then kind of a settling and a level off that that we are experiencing now," said Danielle Airey with Peoria Unified School District. Airey says that growth has not been universal.

In November, voters rejected the Peoria Unified School district’s $120 million bond authorization to help finance a new elementary school. Airey says the push for school choice has hurt public schools.

Sky Schaudt/KJZZ

Statewide, about 86,000 students are signed up for ESA accounts.

“We certainly believe that school choice is a wonderful, powerful thing for families. We believe that Peoria Unified School District is still the best choice in our community for those families looking for education options for their children," Airey said.

The Arizona Department of Education does not keep track of the number of private-school students. While it can track how many people are signed up for ESAs, the state does not know how many people are educated in private schools or are educated at home.

That has hurt public schools.

“The revenue that has been redirected from supporting the system of public education to these private and parochial options does have an impact long term because it's revenue that's not available to support traditional district public school," Menzel said.

Mesa Public Schools was an example of what can happen with declining enrollment. But in recent months, multiple districts have voted to shut down schools, including Phoenix Elementary and Roosevelt School Districts.

Payments to teachers at Isaac School District was up in the air as it faced a budget shortfall in the tens of millions. Between 2013 and 2023, it lost over 2,500 students.

If these trends continue, it is likely more and more schools will have to make the hard decisions of how many people to let go and how many schools they will have to close.