Kyrene School District turns to economist to better understand its enrollment declines

The Kyrene School District is taking a closer look at enrollment data to figure out why it’s losing students and how it can be more proactive.

An economist says declining birthrates do not fully explain the district’s smaller headcounts. School choice is also driving change.

Kyrene is one of several districts that have announced school closures over the past few months, citing a drop in enrollment and therefore less funding and a need for budget cuts.

At a meeting Tuesday, Kyrene’s governing board listened to a presentation from Matthew Hom. He's an economist who helps public school systems turn complex data into clear, actionable insight.

“When we looked at the data, what we found is that there’s about 56% of districts operating in markets where there is a growing number of public school students and yet, at the same time, they’re receiving a smaller share," Hom said.

Hom said fewer families are attending their neighborhood schools. As an example, in 2022, 81% of public school families that lived in Kyrene’s area chose to attend a Kyrene school. That number fell to 77% in 2025. Hom's data only accounts for public schools and does not include ESAs.

He said some public school families who are leaving Kyrene are opting for schools with higher academic performance or specialized programs.

“For example, Knox Gifted Academy," Hom said. "Their trends were such that they were only pulling 53 students in 2022, and that’s doubled to nearly 96.”