Legislative District 4 is one of just a handful of swing districts in Arizona that could determine which party controls the state Legislature next year.
The district — which covers parts of Phoenix, Paradise Valley and Scottsdale — elected Republicans and Democrats to the Legislature in 2022, which is part of a larger trend that has seen LD4 voters back candidates of both parties in recent years.
“This district has really been one that, despite having more red dots than blue dots, looks at the content of someone's character when they're voting,” Democratic consultant Stacy Pearson said, noting that, in 2018, LD4 voters favored former Republican Gov. Doug Ducey and independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, who was a Democrat at the time.
Pearson said voters in the mostly affluent district have shown an aversion to candidates from the MAGA-wing of the party, like former Sheriff Joe Arpaio, who the district voted against in 2016.
LD4 voter Myles Morris reflects that reality.
“Not far left, not far right, but in the middle, which appeals to most people, I would imagine, as you talk to most people,” Morris said. “They are more or less in the middle. Maybe a little right, maybe a little left.”
Sen. Christine Marsh, a Democrat, and Rep. Matt Gress, a Republican, are the only incumbents running for re-election, and they’re both trying to appeal to that voter base while fending off attacks from opponents attempting to paint them as extreme partisans.
So far, Marsh has a successful track record, narrowly unseating Republican Kate Brophy-McGee in 2020 before defeating longtime lawmaker Nancy Barto in 2022.
Since entering office, Marsh, has focused on supporting public education and also championed bipartisan legislation to respond to the opioid epidemic after her son died from an accidental fentanyl overdose.
This year, Marsh will face Carine Werner, a member of the governing board in the Scottsdale Unified School District, where Marsh taught for over 30 years.
Republican consultant Matt Kenney said Marsh, a former Arizona teacher of the year, has a strong base of support in the LD4.
“But I also think that, you know Werner's background as a school board member, and her strong stances on public safety and parental rights, you know, could give her a unique edge in the race,” Kenney said.
Since joining the school board in 2022, Werner has backed a range of Republican priorities, including using Prager U’s curriculum in classrooms. Some educators have criticized the conservative media nonprofit for inaccuracies in its content, like a video in which a cartoon of abolitionist Frederick Douglass claims all of the Founding Fathers opposed slavery.
In the Arizona House, Gress and first-time legislative candidate Pamela Carter are facing Democrats Kelli Butler and Karen Gresham.

Kenney, the Republican consultant, said Gress, a budget director under former Governor Doug Ducey, has a leg up as the only incumbent running in the House race.
“From what I've seen, Matt Gress is in a strong position, and I think that he is an attractive candidate to, I think, those swing voters in LD 4,” Kenney said.
But Pearson said the Democrats — Butler and Gresham — aren’t far behind in terms of name ID. Butler served in the legislature for years, and Gresham is governing board president of the Madison Elementary School District.
“So they're not starting from zero in terms of name recognition,” Pearson said. “They're starting in a much better position than that.”
Pearson also suggested Gress could be hurt by his connections to further-right members of his party.
“This is a district that is done with national news stories about Arizona's insanity,” Pearson said, citing Sen. Wendy Rogers, who has been accused of posting Nazi slogans online and associating with white nationalists.
That could include Carter, Gress’ lesser known running mate, who lists her top issues as border security, public safety and fighting inflation.
According to Mother Jones, Carter has been connected to fringe religious movements.
She also opposes abortion rights and criticized a non-discrimination ordinance adopted in Scottsdale in 2021.
Carter’s famous sister, Wonder Woman actress Lynda Carter, even endorsed the Democrats in the race.
“I mean, these are folks that are trying to grow businesses and corporations, and they're done with the headlines,” Pearson said of LD4 voters.
But Gress and his Republican running mates could also benefit from issues that are at the top of voters' minds, including border security and the state’s school-voucher program. Republicans hope a broad GOP border security bill appearing on the ballot will drive out their voters.
And the results of the legislative elections in LD4 and other swing districts will likely determine whether the expanded school-voucher program remains in place or if Democrats win the seats needed to rein in the program
Education, specifically, is a top concern for L4 voters, Kenney said.
But the issue is more complicated than it seems, with a district that includes many public school advocates and school-voucher supporters.
“So I think that it truly is independent in that way and that I think that you have a good mix of those voters,” Kenney said, “but it's clear that education is a top priority for that district.”
Democrats Marsh, Butler and Gresham are running on a single ticket and are all promoting a similar agenda that includes improving public school funding and adding new regulations on the voucher program.
Gress has also backed efforts to increase school funding, though Democrats argue those efforts did not do enough to help public schools.
And they contend he is too cozy with Republican Superintendent of Public Instruction Tom Horne. They point to Gress’ vote to block Democratic efforts to audit Horne’s department after it nearly lost tens of millions of dollars in federal school funding.
But education is not the only issue at play.
“Top of my interest is women’s right to bodily autonomy,” said Patti Grubenhoff, a Democrat who lives in LD 4. “The economy is probably second.”
Grubenhoff is the type of voter Democrats hope will be driven to the polls by an abortion rights initiative that will be on the ballot.
“That, I think, is going to energize the Democrats on their side,” Kenney said. “And I think that Republicans need to have strong messaging in that district to overcome maybe some of that enthusiasm.”
That messaging is showing up on campaign mailers sent to independent voters by the Gress campaign, reminding them that Gress was one of the only Republicans to cross the aisle this year to repeal Arizona’s near-total abortion ban.