Independents are Arizona LD16's largest voting bloc. Democrats and Republicans are vying for them

As Democrats and Republicans wrestle for control of the state Legislature, both parties are hoping to score victories this year in Legislative District 16, a district that sent Republicans and a Democrat to the Capitol in 2022.

LD16 is an expansive district made up mostly of the booming exurban communities in Maricopa and Pinal counties, where independent voters outnumber their counterparts in the major political parties.

That’s made LD16 one of the few swing districts in Arizona, where both parties have a legitimate shot to win seats as they vie for control of the Arizona House and Senate, where Republicans currently hold slim majorities.

Despite that reality, longtime lawmaker TJ Shope, who was first elected to the Legislature in 2012, won re-election to the state Senate by 11 points in 2022.

“I'd like to think it's my wonderful and charming personality and that everybody just loves me, but I think the reality is oftentimes not exactly just that rosy picture, right?” Shope said. “I mean, I, you know, no doubt I work hard, try to be sensitive to the fact that it is a, quote unquote, swing district, even when we're in session, obviously with the votes that we take, the bills that I run.”

Shope, a Coolidge native, said he believes Republicans, who outnumber Democrats in LD 16, still have an edge in the district’s legislative races even though independents are the largest voting bloc.

“By voter registration alone, it is a swing district,” Shope said. “However, the voter performance has traditionally favored Republicans in that district, even if it is slight.”

Democrat Stacey Seaman, a music professor at Central Arizona College, wants to replace Shope, who she says has lost touch with the district. She criticized the incumbent for voting to approve a massive income tax cut in 2021 after analysis of that cut showed it provided the greatest benefit to high-income Arizonans.

“Voters can’t really trust him to do the right thing for what’s right for our district,” Seaman said.

She also said she wants to bring more attention to the “kitchen table issues,” like housing affordability and schools, that she believes rank high with voters across party lines.

“I live here in this district, and that's what I'm interested in, too,” she said. “When we drill down past the chaos and everything that seems to be happening at a federal level to what's happening in our backyard, then we discover we have so much more in common.”

Seaman said she would also like to push legislation to fund mental health services for young adults and college students.

“I think that there's kind of an untold crisis among Arizonans of young people coming out of high school, first time out on their own, and all of a sudden they don't have resources and they don't know where to go,” she said.

Seaman faces an uphill battle as she looks to unseat the longtime lawmaker Shope, but she does have an example to follow as she tries to flip the district’s one Senate seat from red to blue.

Howard Fischer/Capitol Media Services, Chris Lopez, Keith Seaman

That’s because her father, Democratic Rep. Keith Seaman, successfully won a seat in the House of Representatives in 2022 alongside LD16 Republican Rep. Teresa Martinez. Keith Seaman, Martinez and Republican Chris Lopez are now vying for the district’s two House seats this year.

Martinez and Lopez did not respond to requests for comment.

The race for the district’s two House seats was much closer than the Senate contest in 2022. Martinez, first appointed to fill a vacancy in 2021, was the top vote-getter in that contest, followed by Keith Seaman, who defeated Republican Rob Hudelson by about 600 votes.

Both Shope and Keith Seaman pointed out that election came after once-in-a-decade redistricting added some predominantly Democratic areas from Pima County into the district.

But Keith Seaman, a retired educator and veteran, also said he thinks Democratic positions appeal to a broader swath of voters in LD16.

“I can see people coming into the district and with their needs for education and stuff like that, I think that's making a difference,” he said. “People are seeing that they need another viewpoint as well. “

Keith Seaman agreed with Shope that transportation infrastructure is a top priority for voters in the district and says he supports funding to improve routes like Interstate 10 and State Route 347.

But he said voters in his district also care about other issues, like reproductive rights.

“I go to the doors, not even talking about that until they start talking about it,” he said. “And I was proud to say that I support reproductive health of women.”

Keith Seaman joined all Democrats in the House to repeal Arizona’s near-total abortion ban during the last legislative session, while Shope was one of just two GOP senators to support the repeal.

Their seatmate, Rep. Martinez, joined most Republicans in opposing that effort.

Shope said he thinks Martinez – a member of House Republican leadership and an aide to Congressman Paul Gosar – will win re-election, citing the fact that she finished over 4 points ahead of Keith Seaman in the three-person race for two seats in 2022. Martinez lists transportation infrastructure, economic development and border security as some of her top priorities.

And Shope said Lopez, the other Republican in the House race – who is running on a platform that includes supporting border security and public safety – is also in a strong position to unseat Seaman.

He suggested that Hudelson, the Republican who lost to Seaman in 2022, was a weak candidate.

“We selected a person that we knew was going to have a difficult time in convincing voters in a swing district to vote for him, because of many of his views,” Shope said.

But both Keith and Stacey Seaman said they bring something different to the table for voters in the district, namely experience as educators. They’ve both promised to fight to increase public education funding and reform the state’s school voucher program.

Keith Seaman claimed that the voucher program, which cost the state over $700 million last year, affects other priorities in the district, too.

“All this money that we can't use to fix [State Route] 347, or to widen I-10 or do infrastructure, because it's being used on this, what we call, an unaccountable system,” Keith Seaman said.

That position provides a real contrast for LD16 voters to consider as they fill out their ballots.

Both Shope and Martinez voted to expand the school voucher program in 2022, and Lopez has said he also supports that expansion.