Two years ago, three first-time Democratic lawmakers picked up all three seats in the Arizona Legislature out of Legislative District 9, a swing district in the East Valley.
Despite that sweep, Republicans maintained control of both the Arizona House and Senate as they have for decades. And this year, the district is again at the center of the parties’ tug of war over control of the Legislature.
According to voter registration statistics, independents account for about 36% of the LD9 electorate, outnumbering members of either political party. And Republicans hold a slight edge over 32% to 29% edge over Democrats.
But pollster Paul Bentz said the district actually favors Democrats, pointing to the victories by Sen. Eva Burch and Reps. Lorena Austin and Seth Blattman, the three first-time Democratic lawmakers who won a clean sweep in 2022.
“If you look at the demographics of that district, that district is blue in the West, and is transitioning bluer, and starting to go blue as it goes east,” pollster Paul Bentz said.
Sean Bowie, a moderate Democrat and former East Valley lawmaker, said education and women’s reproductive rights are top issues for voters in the district — issues that Democratic and Republican lawmakers have sparred over at the state Capitol in recent years.
“I know that just from knocking on doors for a long time, and just a lot of parents here are higher-income, they want to go where there are good public schools, so they want to make sure that those schools are protected,” Bowie said.
LD9 is also an employment hub in the East Valley, home to major employers like Intel, Verizon Wireless and Avnet.
Mike Hutchinson, vice president of the East Valley Partnership economic development organization, said that means creating a stable business environment is important to voters, along with making sure the district is an attractive place for employees to live.
“We have continual trouble with attainable housing for people, for employers so their employees can live within a reasonable distance of their place of work,” Hutchinson said. “Child care continues to be a real challenge.”
Both Burch and Austin made national headlines in their first terms in office — Burch for sharing her personal abortion experience on the floor of the Arizona Senate as Democrats sought to overturn the state’s civil war era abortion ban.
Austin, meanwhile, was recognized as Arizona’s first nonbinary legislator, and Austin used that platform to advocate for legislation to advocate for LGBTQ and non-binary youth. Austin also drew criticism from Republicans for hosting a drag story hour at the Capitol this year.
Blattman, a small business owner, struck a lower profile but was one of just two Democrats in competitive races to earn the endorsement of the Arizona Chamber of Commerce, who praised him for supporting compromises to pass pro-business policies.
Bentz said those Democrats could hold their seats for some time.
“By the end of this it'll be a solidly blue district,” Bentz said. “But it's not, I don't think, winnable for Republicans in the cycle.”
A lot of that has to do with the matchups, Bentz said.
Burch is facing retired Mesa officer Robert Scantelbury, who she defeated in 2022. Scantlebury, whose priorities include supporting law enforcement and addressing the high cost of living, was endorsed last time around by President Donald Trump after expressing skepticism about the results of the 2020 presidential election.
In the House, Republican Mary Ann Mendoza is also running again. Mendoza has been outspoken about illegal immigration after her son was killed in a vehicle collision with an undocumented immigrant. She also drew criticism during the last election cycle for photos showing her dressed in black and brown face and anti-semitic social media posts that led the RNC to cancel her speaking appearance in 2020.
Bentz said Republicans need to run moderate candidates to be competitive in LD9.
And Hutchinson, a former Mesa city Manager, said East Valley voters want candidates who know how to compromise to get things done.
“You know, sometimes people have to swallow their pride and do things they’re not totally for, but that’s the way the system works and it’s worked well,” he said.
Bentz said Kylie Barber, the other GOP House candidate, fits that mold. Earlier this year, Barber praised former Republican lawmaker Rusty Bowers, who became the target of harassment by many of his fellow Republicans and lost his own reelection bid in 2022 after resisting efforts to undermine President Biden’s win over former President Donald Trump in 2020.
“Kylie Barber is a different type of Republican than they’ve run in the past,” Bentz said. “But basically, her having to be paired up with Scantlebury and Mendoza like doesn't help her.”
Bowie, the former lawmaker, said he believes LD-9 is dominated by moderate voters who prefer Democrats in the vein of Senator Kyrsten Sinema, who is now an independent.
But he said there are plenty of ticket splitters in the district, or voters who will choose candidates from both parties on their ballot. She said her priorities are securing parental rights in education, securing the southern border and addressing inflation.
Bowie said those ticket splitters might pick Democrats in the Presidential and U.S. Senate races because they’re turned off by former President Donald Trump and GOP Senate candidate Kari Lake.
“And then they're going to vote Republican down ballot,” Bowie said. “Kind of as a way to balance their ballots. So as to say, ‘I'm not overly partisan, you know, I'm voting for Democrats and Republicans, and I'm going to kind of split my ballot.’”
How many of those ticket splitters turn out in November could determine which party wins in LD9 — and controls the state legislature next year.
