Arizona voter turnout was close to 2020, but lower in counties that backed Biden

Arizona voter turnout was about the same this year as it was in 2020. But after rejecting Donald Trump four years ago, the state flipped back from blue to red. What changed?

This year’s general election turnout in Arizona is expected to be about 1% lower than it was in 2020.

But it fell more sharply in counties that had supported Joe Biden four years ago, including Pima and Coconino.

Paul Bentz is with High Ground Public Affairs. He says polling indicated Republicans connected with a majority of voters on inflation and immigration.

And he says lower turnout rates among younger voters and independents were likely due to longer ballots and something else: “We saw a sizable amount of negativity and attacks regarding Harris when it comes to the economy, when it comes to immigration, and they really didn't have the right message to respond to that," Bentz said.

Republicans have long held a registration edge over Democrats in the state, and Bentz says the GOP added to that advantage leading up to the election.

“Tapping into sort of this general dissatisfaction with the way things are going combined with economic concerns, certainly inflation, the cost of gas, the other items, just the overall cost of living being up is something that I think everybody really felt," he added.

Bentz says more analysis is needed to get final answers on what may have ultimately kept younger and independent voters home.