Arizona primary election voter turnout lowest in nearly 20 years

Voter turnout in last week’s election was the lowest for a primary in nearly two decades.

With unofficial results now available from Arizona’s 15 counties, voter turnout stands at just under 27% — a steep drop from the last comparable primary election, during the 2022 midterms, when turnout was at 35%.

Pollster and political consultant Paul Bentz said lawmakers’ decision to move up the state primary from August to July was likely a factor. Low turnout is also typically a sign of low overall enthusiasm, compounded by the lack of big ticket competitive races on the ballot — the top of the ticket during these midterms, the race for governor, featured incumbent Democrat Katie Hobbs running unopposed and a landslide victory for Congressman Andy Biggs, who secured the GOP nomination.

“Primaries used to take place in September, and then they moved them to late August and then to early August, and now we’ve moved it to mid-July, and I think voters have fallen a little behind being aware of what’s going on,” Bentz said.

Bentz predicts lower turnout, if it carries over in November, would most benefit Republicans, because the hardcore MAGA base is likely to participate no matter what.

He said certain other voting blocs are less guaranteed, including left-leaning independents and liberal younger voters.

“The question is do they show up now that the die has been cast and that they have you know the general election races are they waiting to show up then? Or does this just indicate that we’re going to see overall lower voter turnout in general,” Bentz said.

Turnout is always lower in the primary election than the general election and lower in the midterms than in presidential election years.

“I’m adjusting down closer to anticipating lower turnout especially since we’re seeing out of the gate we’re already seeing negative campaigning. Negative campaigns tend to suppress voter turnout going into the general election,” Bentz said.