A new poll commissioned by AARP shows Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs holding a sizable 8 point lead over Republican Congressman Andy Biggs in Arizona’s gubernatorial race.
According to the poll, 52% of respondents said they plan to vote for Hobbs, versus 44% who chose Biggs. Just 4% of people who spoke to pollsters said they were undecided, and the poll did not include two third-party candidates who will appear on the ballot.
The poll, which had a margin of error of 3.2%, found Hobbs holding a sizable 54-point lead with younger voters between 18 and 34 years old. She also held a 23-point advantage with voters between 35 and 49.
Biggs, meanwhile, held a 9% advantage with voters over 50, buoyed by a 24-point lead with men in that age group.
Hobbs led Biggs with independent voters, a key voting demographic that makes up more than one-third of Arizona’s electorate. Hobbs led Biggs 59% to 33% with those voters, who don’t identify with either major political party, according to the poll.
Republicans continue to hold a significant voter registration advantage over Democrats in Arizona.
Roughly 35% of the electorate is registered with the Republican Party, versus 28% who identify as Democrats.
Republican consultant Christina Corieri told KJZZ’s The Show that an incumbent Arizona governor hasn’t lost a re-election bid since the 1970s, but she thinks a lot can change over the next three months before Election Day.
“Oh, it will tighten. I think in that poll it had 10% of Republicans voting for Gov. Hobbs. It is not going to be 10% at the end of the day,” Corieri said. “There’ll be some tightening in the independents as well.”
Democratic consultant Mike Haener acknowledged that a lot can change between now and the November election, but he said the results are a good sign for Hobbs.
“Eight points is fantastic in August. I don’t think there was ever an 8 point lead on Kari Lake and, obviously, the governor still won,” Haener said.
In 2022, Hobbs defeated Lake by just about 17,000 votes, or less than 1%.
The AARP poll also showed Democratic Attorney General Kris Mayes leading Republican challenger Warren Petersen 48% to 43% in that race, with 9% of respondents undecided.
Like Hobbs, Mayes held sizable leads with independents and young voters.
Petersen, currently the state Senate president, led with older voters.
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