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Data analysis: Almost 1 in 3 Latinos in U.S. would be impacted by Trump's deportation proposal

Donald Trump
Gage Skidmore/CC BY 2.0
Donald Trump in July 2023.

A new data analysis from the immigrant advocacy group FWD.us estimates almost one in three Latinos nationwide would be directly affected by the mass deportation promised by the Trump campaign.

Former President Donald Trump has repeatedly called for enacting mass deportations of the roughly 11 million long-time U.S. residents who are undocumented — an effort the American Immigration Council estimates would cost roughly $88 billion a year and cause major labor market shortages.

Alejandra Gomez, executive director of the advocacy group LUCHA, says Arizonans have already lived through the effects of similar policies, like SB 1070. The 2010 state law had local law enforcement asking for proof of citizenship during traffic stops and was ruled unconstitutional by the Supreme Court.

“Rampant racial profiling, workplace raids, children torn from their parents and families deported in record numbers,” Gomez said on a press call this week. “These actions left a lasting scar on our state.”

FWD.us estimates some 28 million U.S. residents will be part of a mixed immigration status household by the start of next year — including almost 20 million Latinos — all of whom would be at risk of being deported themselves or separated from undocumented family members if mass deportations were enacted.

Greisa Martinez Rosas, executive director with the group United We Dream Action, told reporters Tuesday that Trump has made good on similar threats before.

“He tried to kill DACA, he tried to kill the TPS program, he built up a deportation force and is allowing states like Texas, Arizona, like Florida, to do that with their state powers,” she said.

On the ballot in Arizona this year is Prop. 314, a measure that would make crossing the border between ports of entry a state crime and give local police the power to carry out immigration-related arrests. Proponents have billed it as a border security measure, but opponents argue it’s another rendition of SB 1070 and would lead to racial profiling.

Jose Patiño, vice president of education and external affairs with the advocacy group Aliento, says more than 300 volunteers and interns are knocking on doors in the Phoenix area campaigning against the initiative. He says immigrant rights groups in Arizona are worried— especially as the DACA program he and others rely on is also in legal jeopardy.

"In the scenario that Prop 314 passes and Trump gets elected, we're going to go back to what we built in 2016, which was family packets on how to fight deportations ... know your rights workshops," he said. "And [DACA] recipients like myself and others, we're going to have to think about what our role is, because we're also going to be more vulnerable than we were. ... A lot of the leaders in the immigrant rights movement will also be impacted themselves, so then, how do you think about others, when you yourself are not safe?”

Alisa Reznick is a senior field correspondent covering stories across southern Arizona and the borderlands for the Tucson bureau of KJZZ's Fronteras Desk.