Much of the wintertime produce sold in the United States comes from Mexico. But that could change if President Donald Trump’s across the board tariffs go into effect.
The oranges will keep rolling down the conveyor belts at the Citrícola del Yaqui citrus packing facility in southern Sonora if Trump’s tariffs go into effect next week. The question is: Will they still head to the United States or find juicier markets elsewhere?
That question is on Javier Talamantes' mind as he awaits Trump’s decision on whether or not to put a 25% tariff on all imports from Mexico and Canada. Talamantes is the commercial director at the facility in Ciudad Obregon, where women in hairnets can pack up to a million pieces of fruit a day.
He says his business will be fine, as he can scale up sales in Japan and Mexico if U.S. consumers buy less fruit because tariffs make them more expensive. Even though he has a contingency plan, Talamantes feels caught in the crosshairs of a dispute that has little to do with him.
“This is an unprofessional way to solve a problem that doesn’t have anything to do with agriculture,” Talamantes said on a recent Tuesday morning at the plant.
Trump signed an executive order shortly after taking office ordering a 25% tariff on all goods from Canada and Mexico. Its implementation has been delayed as the president uses the tariff threat as a bargaining chip in an effort to force his neighbors to do more to stop the flow of drugs and migrants into the United States. But if the tariff does go into effect, it could be a blow to Mexico’s export-heavy economy and raise prices on goods in the United States.
University of Arizona economist George Hammond expects other producers in Mexico will also find new markets for their products if the tariff goes into place.
“That means scarcer products here in the U.S.,” Hammond said. “And when products are scarce, the price tends to go up.”
Earlier this month, Trump delayed the 25% across-the-board tariff for a month after a phone call with Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, who promised to send additional Mexican National Guard troops to the border.
Sheinbaum’s administration is again in talks with the United States.
“We just don’t know what’s going to happen,” Hammond said. “This federal administration has injected a lot of uncertainty into the macroeconomic and trade environment.”
Jaime Chamberlain, the owner of Chamberlain Distributing in Nogales, Arizona, is weighing the uncertainty of the tariff threat with his desire to see more security at the border. Much of the citrus Talamantes’ company produces goes to a distributor like Chamberlain, who sells it to clients in the United States.
As the importer of record, Chamberlain would be the one responsible for paying the tariff.
“That uncertainty can really cause havoc on a sector and on an industry that at this moment in time cannot afford to be interrupted,” Chamberlain said.
He said a 25% tariff would force him to lower the amount he’s able to offer the farmers he works with in Mexico and increase the price he offers U.S. grocery stores.
Chamberlain wants Trump to rescind his executive order mandating across-the-board tariffs on Canada and Mexico.
“It’s scary,” Chamberlain said. “It’s gonna cost me a lot of money. At the end of the day, it’s gonna cost the consumer a lot of money. But I continue to have faith that we will find a solution together.”
He thinks there’s more Mexico could do to advance Trump’s goal to crack down on the flow of drugs across the U.S.-Mexico border. Despite the fact that they would hurt his business, he still sees tariffs as a way to achieve that goal. The “trickle-down effect” of tariffs will be difficult for consumers in the United States as well as producers in Mexico, he said.
“So at the end of the day somebody’s going to break,” Chamberlain said. “That’s what the threat of tariffs are for, to force good negotiations.”
Back at Citrícola del Yaqui, empty boxes fly overhead on metal tracks, ready to be filled with oranges and shipped to stores. Some of the fruit being boxed here could end up in grocery stores in Arizona by the next morning, Talamantes said.
But if prices suddenly increase in the U.S., the boxes full of mandarins can change course within a day and go to Japan or or stay in Mexico instead. Talamantes said he doesn’t understand why his business plan has to change because of Trump's political goals at the border.
“That’s not the problem of an orange farmer, or a tomato farmer or a trucking company that delivers to the United States,” Talamantes said. “They want to throw a problem at us that we don’t have the solution to.”
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