In Arizona, a tariff on tomatoes from Mexico could affect more than just grocery store prices

Prices will likely soon start rising in the produce aisle, as a 17% tariff on tomatoes from Mexico goes into effect.

The United States pulled out of a trade agreement between the two countries after growers in Florida said too many tomatoes from Mexico are entering the country, driving down prices.

Over the past 30 years, Florida tomato growers’ share of the U.S. tomato market has shrunk from 80% to 20%, as Mexico-grown tomatoes become more common on shelves, Arizona State University professor Tim Richards said. Richards predicts the price of tomatoes will increase by about 8.5%, half the amount of the 17% tariff.

“So if the price increases, people will consume less,” Richards said.

That will equal dollars, and likely jobs, lost up and down the supply chain, Richards said. That means growers and agricultural workers in the Mexican states of Sinaloa and Sonora and warehouse workers in Arizona could all be affected.

Mexico’s economy and agriculture departments called the tariff “unfair” in a joint statement, and said it’s “against the interests not only of Mexican producers, but also of the U.S. industry.”

But Department of Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said in a statement that the tariff aims to protect U.S. farmers.

“Mexico remains one of our greatest allies, but for far too long our farmers have been crushed by unfair trade practices that have undercut pricing on produce like tomatoes,” Lutnick said.

Florida tomato growers for years have called for a tariff on Mexican tomatoes, and are now rejoicing this political win.

Murphy Woodhouse/KJZZ

“This decision will protect hardworking American tomato growers from unfair Mexican trading practices and send a strong signal that the Trump Administration is committed to ensuring fair markets for American agriculture,” Florida Tomato Exchange Executive Vice President Robert Guenther said in a statement.

Arizona’s border with Mexico is a portal for many of the tomatoes that enter the United States. According to the University of Arizona, of the $3.6 billion of agricultural products that entered Arizona from Mexico in 2024, $1 billion was tomatoes.

Experts fear a disruption to that supply chain could affect more than just prices on the shelves.

“The impact on the state of Arizona is going to be significant,” Nogales-based produce distributor Jaime Chamberlain said.

Arizona jobs could disappear if the amount of tomatoes crossing the border each year plummets, as growers in Mexico weigh the profitability of exporting tomatoes to the United States. That includes jobs in warehouses, but also the mechanics who fix the trucks the tomatoes come in on and the inspectors in charge of examining the product, Chamberlain said.

The types of tomatoes available on shelves could also change, Richards said. Growers in Florida generally grow tomatoes in open fields, while in Mexico they’re generally grown using technology like greenhouses.

Richards said that technology results in higher quality tomatoes.

“They’re really in different markets,” Richards said. “They’re not very substitutable.”

Consumers are likely to see prices really start to rise around November, when much of the domestic tomato production starts to wrap up for the winter, Chamberlain said.

If Mexican producers decide to farm fewer tomatoes or not export them to the United States, that could further drive up prices.

“Right now, you have farmers deciding whether to farm tomatoes or what to do with that acreage,” Chamberlain said. “They may replace that acreage with cucumbers or bell peppers or squash or something else. And I think that is a very significant decision to make.”