The summer deadline for the first mandatory review of the USMCA is approaching.
July 1 marks the day when the United States, Mexico and Canada are meant to agree on whether, or what, to change in the nearly 6-year-old trade deal that binds the three nations.
“We know the United States is not going to just clearly say, yes, let’s approve the agreement, it’s fine,” Council on Foreign Relations trade expert Inu Manak said.
That could lead to an extended period of negotiating the USMCA trade deal, which replaced NAFTA under the last Trump administration and keeps much of the goods that flow between the three countries tariff-free.
“What that means for business is a tremendous amount of uncertainty, and a continuation of the uncertainty that we saw since last year when there were the on-again, off-again tariffs,” Manak said.
Mexico is Arizona’s largest trading partner. Billions of dollars worth of goods like produce, cars and machinery cross the border each year.
Mexico’s economy secretary says conversations with U.S. trade officials will take place in Mexico this week.
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The move comes after a nearly yearlong ban of Mexican cattle into the United States to protect against the New World screwworm parasite.
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The San Luis port of entry from Sonora, Mexico, is Arizona’s westernmost border crossing, and could see delays for four to five months starting later this month.
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No cases of the flesh-eating New World screwworm parasite have been reported in Arizona, but USDA’s Natural Resources Conservation Service in the state has recommendations for ranchers to protect against it.
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Mexican immigrants sent less money back to their country of origin last year, after 11 consecutive years of increased remittances, according to BBVA. Now, they appear to be increasing again.
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The U.S. Department of Agriculture says has confirmed the parasitic fly larva in a three-week-old calf in south Texas.