The entire political world has pretty much turned upside down in the last week. It has only been about a week and a day since President Joe Biden stepped aside and opened the door for Vice President Kamala Harris to take the helm of the Democratic Party and likely the presidential nomination.
And on top of that, she just might pick U.S. Sen. Mark Kelly of Arizona as her running mate.
So how will all of this play in Arizona, one of the very few important swing states in this year’s presidential race, a border state chock full of independent voters? Biden won here in 2020, but just with 10,000 votes.
For more on all of that, we turn to Arizona Republic editorial page editor Elvia Díaz, as well as columnist Phil Boaz.
Full conversation
LAUREN GILGER: So the reason I wanted to talk to both of you today is because you come at this from different points of view, different sides of the aisle. So let’s talk about what you’re both thinking as we kind of watch history be written in front of us — as I think you put it in a recent column, Phil.
I want to start with you, Elvia. Kamala Harris has raised a record amount of money in the last week. Democrats have quickly coalesced around her as the likely candidate. Do you think this momentum is real? Do you think it will continue?
ELVIA DÍAZ: Well, I absolutely think it’s real, and not just because of what I see on TV but what I hear from people at my level — and on “my level” meaning ordinary people just going to the grocery stores, just being so excited about the new campaign. So yes, it’s absolutely real.
And the money that she has raised indicates that as well. That is coming from big donors and small donors that wanted someone else and got someone else. They just didn’t know that they had that someone else right in the White House.
Now will it continue? That’s the big question. So the campaign will tell you yes, but it’s anyone’s guess, right? We don’t know. Things have changed so much — as you said in the intro — within just two weeks that we’ll see.
GILGER: Phil, you come at this from an interesting point of view as well. You are a lifelong Republican, but you’ve never been like a Trump guy. You wrote that both parties you think are in jeopardy now. Why?
PHIL BOAS: So this has clearly changed the dimensions of the race. And we’re going to see very soon as things settle down, as the initial euphoria begins to rub off a little bit and you begin to see just how this race will play over the next several months. And for both parties, there’s a lot of danger. It’s going to be a close race, it looks like.
That’s generally the case in the presidential election. They tend to tighten up right near the end, and everybody’s on pins and needles. So we can expect that again with the move that the Democrats have made.

GILGER: You also wrote a column about Harris and her record and some potential pitfalls there, and sort of that the way the media is talking about this, maybe in this initial euphoria. What’s your view? Do you think she’s getting treated with kid gloves?
BOAS: Well, I think she’s she’s going to be introduced to the country more so than she has been. People really don’t have much of an understanding of her background and the positions she’s taken in the past. She’s a progressive liberal, and that record is going to be coming out. And there will be a lot of attacks on her.
Now, it’s going to be different than the attacks that the Democrats are now making with Donald Trump, because Trump has been attacked now for 10 years, and it’s almost like throwing a glass of water at the ocean. It doesn’t have much impact the way it once did.
With Kamala Harris, a lot of these attacks are new, and people are hearing facts for the first time. They’re hearing the opposition coming back at her for the first time.
DÍAZ: When we talk about her record, it is a White House record. The president is the one in charge. I think her biggest challenge is the border, and not necessarily because she personally was not able to do anything about it. But who knows what happened behind the scenes. If she was able or if she was allowed to actually do it. I have a sense now that it was the white House who kept her really at bay.
Yeah, she was given the charge of the border, and I think that’s going to be an issue. At the beginning, that was one of my criticisms as well: that the White House wanted to tackle the border issue from the root causes, which is where immigration is coming from. And, you know, she was immediately attacked upon visiting the border. But a reality, in the long term, that’s how we’re going to fix the border, right? But you know that that is going to be her biggest challenge, I believe.
But then it all depends who she’s going to pick for vice president and how she’s going to counter that. So far, we have seen that she has what it takes to take on Donald Trump and actually take on the border, because keep in mind that potentially her biggest challenge is also the Republicans’ challenge, because we have a presidential candidate — the former president — who specifically told the (Republicans) not to fix the border because he wanted to make this a campaign issue.
So who has the biggest weakness here when it comes to immigration?
GILGER: Let me ask you both about Mark Kelly, a potential vice president for a Harris ticket. We talked with you about this last week on The Show, Elvia. And you think this is a great idea. Phil, you wrote that Kelly should have Republicans worried here in a way that maybe Kamala Harris shouldn’t. Why do you say that?
BOAS: Yeah. So I think the reason that Republicans should be concerned if Harris chooses Mark Kelly is that Mark Kelly checks a lot of the boxes that are sort of traditional values in America. He’s a political neophyte. He’s new to politics, but he’s had a long career.
And he is not the most eloquent of the people on the short list. People like Josh Shapiro, who’s governor of Pennsylvania; Tim Waltz, governor of Minnesota. But deeds themselves have eloquence. And he has accomplished a lot in his life. He has flown 39 combat missions, four space missions. He’s had 375 career landings. He’s won the Defense Superior Service Medal. He’s won the Legion of Merit, two Distinguished Flying Crosses.
The man has done a lot in his lifetime, and that’s going to speak to Americans. And it’s the kind of thing that Americans of all stripes really admire.
GILGER: I wonder, how much do you think that makes a difference in Arizona? It’s one of several swing states with some electoral votes but not as many as maybe Pennsylvania or a state like that. Do you think the VP ends up making a huge difference in any case?
BOAS: I don’t think it’s going to make a difference in Arizona. I think Arizona is probably going to go Republican this year. And I think that’s because the registration advantage for the Republicans has opened up even more over the last decade.
So it’s a strange thing. A lot of the statewide offices go to Democrats, but the Republicans have a pretty strong advantage now in voter registrations. And it just looks like they’re going to move in that direction. The polling has all been in that direction.
DÍAZ: I disagree. Voter registration advantage is there, Phil is absolutely correct. But Mark Kelly is one of those guys and senators that is well-liked here in this state. You mentioned there at the intro that President Biden won by only 10,000 votes. So I do believe that he could deliver Arizona for the president.
It’s going to come down to who is able to incentivize more people to come out to vote. Right? So you have Republicans with a huge advantage over Democrats, but then you have independents, which are a third of the registered voters.
So who’s going to do that? And who’s going to incentivize women? Who’s going to incentivize Latinos, African Americans to come out in force? And I think Mark Kelly can do that. And I think that’s partly why he is being seriously considered as a running mate.