KJZZ’s Friday NewsCap revisits some of the biggest stories of the week from Arizona and beyond.
To talk about Sen. Mark Kelly’s odds of being Kamala Harris’ VP pick, the looming showdown for control of Maricopa County elections and more, The Show sat down with Stacy Pearson, Democratic consultant with Lumen Strategies; and former state schools superintendent Jaime Molera, now with the firm Molera Alvarez.
Conversation highlights
On Sen. Mark Kelly’s odds to be Kamala Harris’ running mate
LAUREN GILGER: Obviously a very big week in politics here in Arizona. We had a primary election. We had a vice presidential contender visit. We have another vice presidential contender possibly in our midst. So lots to talk about. And I want to start with the former there.
Let’s start with Sen. Mark Kelly. So much chatter about him being maybe in the final maybe two contenders for Kamala Harris as VP pick. It’s heating up. Word has it she’ll make a selection by Tuesday. Kelly says though he will be in Arizona next week. People reading into every bit of scheduling happening here.
Stacy, I want to start with you. Do you think this will really happen? What are the odds?
STACY PEARSON: Oh, I think the odds are good, right? Arizona has elected him twice. A red state has elected him twice. And certainly it’s against some crazy candidates that he was running against. But his resume is extraordinary. And the nation could use some of Mark Kelly.
GILGER: The nation could use it. Jaime, how smart do you think it would be for the Harris campaign to pick somebody like Kelly for those reasons, but also for location, right? For Arizona, for the swing state status here. Would she be better off picking somebody like the governor of Pennsylvania, Josh Shapiro? There’s more more votes to be had there in the Electoral College.
JAIME MOLERA: Well, the thing about Sen. Kelly is that he brings a lot to the table, not just electoral votes — and certainly Arizona is going to be a battleground state — but being a former military hero, being a former astronaut, being all those things that I think appeal to a lot of Americans. And I think his stature in the United States Senate, along with everything else he’s accomplished and not the least of which is being married to Gabby Giffords, is also extremely popular.
You know, you could just see him being a very powerful force on that ticket. And it’s interesting, as these rumors are starting to circulate and percolate, I think Gov. (Katie) Hobbs is going to get a lot more Christmas cards this year if that were to happen, because there’s a lot of people interested in that job.
GILGER: That’s the next step kind of question, right Stacy? What do you think this sets up in terms of somebody to replace him potentially?
PEARSON: Well, I think that’s probably his biggest liability is putting that seat back in contention in two years. And we saw what happened with Obama’s first term when he had control of the House and the Senate. There was a backlash two years later. And so putting that seat up to up for that interim election unnecessarily, I think is going to be his biggest liability.
GILGER: Interesting. Let me ask you, Jaime, about the border here. That’s perceived to be one of Kamala Harris’ political weaknesses. Obviously we’re a border state. Kelly’s from here, from Tucson. Is that something he could help with?
MOLERA: Possibly. It is a big issue for the Democrats in this election cycle, because right now, every poll that I’ve seen, security border issues are number one. And usually when they’re number one, it’s better for Republicans. Usually. I think Sen. Kelly will help mitigate that to some extent. But still, that’s going to be an area the Republicans are going to be really hitting the Democrats hard at all levels, not just in this presidential race.
GILGER: Stacy, what does Kelly’s record look like on the border? How has he approached the issue in the past?
PEARSON: Well, certainly the border bill that got scuttled — as you know, crushed earlier this year by candidate Trump — Kelly was a leader on and getting that across, getting that out of the Senate. He understands what needs to be done. We have a congressional stalemate. That’s the problem. We’re not funding through our Congress — our absolute concrete-set, psychotic Congress — we’re not funding better technology, faster processing, better background checks, more border patrol agents. And Mark Kelly certainly understands that.
GILGER: OK, so everyone excited for Tuesday. Jaime, you think this is going to happen?
MOLERA: Well, I think there’s a very, very good chance. I would say right now it’s a coin flip. I think they’re looking at all aspects of it. Certainly Gov. Shapiro gives a lot of impact for the possible ticket just because of the electoral votes Pennsylvania brings, but also the region. The Midwest region is going to be so important. So I think there’s a lot of folks doing a lot of poll watching and number crunching and waiting.
On the Republican registration advantage and key issues in Arizona
GILGER: Kelly or no Kelly on the ticket, it seems that Arizona is going to be inundated for the next three months here until November. We just had JD Vance here this week. We’ve got Kamala Harris coming. What is Arizona’s status heading into November, Stacy? We have heard this shift in recent weeks, but then maybe it’s shifted again as the entire presidential race has shifted.
Are we a toss-up state, or are we “leans Republican,” as the Cook Political Report reclassified us?
PEARSON: Oh, make no mistake, we are Republican. We absolutely are. There are more registered Republicans than Democrats or independents. But we have consistently rejected crazy people. So despite our Republican registration advantage, we have not elected MAGA in quite some time.
So we look at Gov. Hobbs, who defeated Kari Lake. We look at Sen. Kelly, who defeated Blake Masters. We look at Paul Penzone even, which was the beginning of this, who defeated Joe Arpaio. We are a Republican state with sane conservative principles.
GILGER: What’s your take there, Jaime?
MOLERA: Well, I think there’s a lot to be said about that. I think if you look at Kari Lake’s numbers, for instance, her negatives are pretty significant. I mean, they’re above 50%, and that’s always difficult to come back on. It’s always difficult to change a person’s perception if they don’t like you, if they have a negative opinion of you.
And so that gives the Democrats an opportunity. Ruben Gallego, if he were running against Jon Kyl, for instance — or some what I would call traditional conservative — I think he’d have a hard time winning. But in this era, he’s going to have an opportunity to become the next the U.S. senator from Arizona.
GILGER: Let me ask you about something you just brought up, Stacy, which is the registration numbers, which have shifted recently again. They always kind of shift heading into a primary, but it seems more dramatic this time. We’re seeing Republicans in the state with this growing and really pretty significant registration advantage over Democrats. Independents also, big registration advantage over Democrats. Is this as significant as the numbers make it seem?
PEARSON: Yes. It’s literally keeping me up at night. Where did they go? We are roughly 100,000 fewer registered Democrats today than we were four years ago. And that that is significant when both other big blocks of voters have grown. And so our gap — Democrats had a 20,000 voter gap four years ago over independents. Now we’re underwater by 250,000.
So where do they go? Where did the Democrats go? Why did they leave? Why won’t they come back? Someone go find them. If they’re listening right now, call me. I’ll help you. I’ll help you get through your voter registration. We really need to figure out what is happening and then make sure that we’re talking to those voters.
There’s a thousand theories. But if it’s new residents, they’ve moved here from California. They were probably lifelong registered Democrats. Why did they register as independents? Was it traffic? Is it policy issues? Are they mad about traffic and homelessness and crime? What’s happening? We have to figure it out.
GILGER: And there really aren’t answers to that right now? We’re really just guessing?
PEARSON: Right now, it’s guessing. And I talk more about this right now with clients and funders and campaigns than anything else. Border policy is third to where did the Democrats go and how are we going to get them back?
GILGER: So from the Republican side of that, Jaime, that big of a voter advantage or registration advantage — I think it’s like 260,000 more Republicans and Democrats — this is significant. Does that guarantee wins, though, in a lot of those races?
MOLERA: No, it certainly helps. But the Republicans need to figure out a way to make sure that they vote, and not only vote but they vote Republican. There’s a lot of Republican women, for instance, that have a big problem with President Trump, particularly on abortion issues. That tends to be a huge wedge issue. But if they can focus on areas — for instance, the border — if they can focus on the economy, certainly some of the data coming out showing that the United States might be going into a recession certainly will not help this administration.
Those are the kinds of things they need to be focused on, and they really need to drive. the debate and the focus of this election on those issues.
GILGER: Are we seeing that happen?
MOLERA: Starting to, I think, to various degrees. I think you’re seeing that at different levels. for instance, the state Legislature. That’s going to be a big battle, and whether or not the Democrats can maybe get control over that. But I think the Republican message has been very consistent and very strong on those areas that I just talked about.
GILGER: Do you agree, Stacy?
PEARSON: Well, I think certainly politicians who have discipline are talking about those issues very well. And then we’ve got you’ve got the top of the ticket in Donald Trump, who’s just bonkers, right? Who’s questioning whether or not Kamala Harris turned Black last week? I mean, we’re really talking about some crazy top-of-ticket issues.
But looking at going into this upcoming election, we see where the Democrats are going. It is abortion, abortion, abortion, abortion, freedom, freedom, freedom.
GILGER: Are those going to be winning issues, you think?
PEARSON: Absolutely. You think through the number of signatures that the abortion measure just turned in. North of 800,000 signatures. There were 7,000 volunteers. I’ve worked on ballot initiatives now for almost a decade, and I’ve never seen numbers anywhere near that.
GILGER: Let me ask you about that, Jaime. Is abortion going to be as central in November as it was maybe a year ago?
MOLERA: I don’t think it will, because I think we’ve had this debate now and there’s going to be an initiative on the ballot where people can decide what they want to do. So if Republicans, again, focus on the top issues that are on people’s minds right now, which is the economy — that’s first and foremost — and feeling secure in our state, that’s going to be the messages that they’re going to need to have in order to be successful.
I just think that, while abortion is a big issue and I think it can be a wedge issue for Republicans, if they can stay committed to that message and focused on what they need to do, then I think they might have a lot of success.
GILGER: Yeah. We can see your advice here to clients right now.
