KJZZ’s Friday NewsCap revisits some of the biggest stories of the week from Arizona and beyond.
To talk about Arizonans at the Democratic National Convention, state Supreme Court rulings on ballot initiatives and more, The Show sat down with Lorna Romero Ferguson of Elevate Strategies and former state lawmaker Aaron Lieberman.
On prominent Arizonans at the Democratic National Convention
MARK BRODIE: Aaron, let me start with you. .. The Democratic National Convention wrapped up last night in Chicago. Last night kind of seemed like Arizona night.
AARON LIEBERMAN: Yeah, absolutely. It was incredible to see the lineup of Arizona Democrats up there — starting with Gabby Giffords, which was very emotional. She’s clearly been working on her public speaking so hard and gave just a great speech. And it was lovely to see Sen. (Mark) Kelly right next to her and how he supported her.
And then obviously Sen. Kelly’s speech was great, but Ruben Gallego's speech really made an impact, I thought, with all of those veterans coming out, including Sen. Kelly and Tammy Duckworth and others, I think it was primed for the Arizona audience and kind of a great way of focusing on hopefully future Sen. Gallego, in my eyes.
BRODIE: Lorna, is this an indication of how important Democrats see Arizona? I mean, there were other Arizonans who spoke earlier in the week. But last night — presumably big TV ratings, people waiting to see Vice President (Kamala) Harris — three Arizonans up there?
LORNA ROMERO FERGUSON: Oh, 100%. Arizona is front and center for Democrats, and not just from a presidential perspective, but also with the U.S. Senate race with Ruben Gallego. And so, it just goes to show that a lot has changed in the past few election cycles when it comes to Arizona.
Ten, 15 years ago, we were a flyover state for Democrats, right? And now you have two major races at play. And Democrats are really taking full advantage of the dynamics here in Arizona with the growing amount of swing voters that we have.
BRODIE: We had talked in the past, Lorna, about when — before President Biden dropped out of the race — that in Arizona, the polls were showing that former President Trump was ahead in the presidential race but Congressman Gallego was ahead in the Senate race. And the concept of these Trump-Gallego voters now that Biden is out. Is that as much of a big deal do you think?
ROMERO FERGUSON: I still think there will be Trump-Gallego supporters. I do think that now with Biden out and Kamala in, she has an opportunity to take some of those swing voters, independents or maybe even moderate Republicans that will go Democrat for president, Democrat for U.S. Senate.
So she has a bigger opportunity because now she’s able to redefine herself and kind of distance herself from the failures of the Biden administration. You’ve been seeing that the past few days with the DNC, where there’s not really much talk about what’s been happening under Biden. It’s more focused on what she wants to do on the future.
But I do think that there’s still going to be a segment of the population that supports Trump for the presidency because they’re turned off by Kamala’s economic policies, but will vote for Ruben because he’s coming off as a much more moderate Democrat. And they’re much more familiar with Kari Lake, given that she ran unsuccessfully two years ago. And I don’t think she’s done much to speak to that swing audience to bring them over to her.
LIEBERMAN: By economic policies, you mean the tax cut for the middle class that Kamala has proposed? That’s what they’re going to object to?
ROMERO FERGUSON: To all of the tax increases that she’s talking about as well that’s going to raise costs.
LIEBERMAN: For the highest highest income earners, for the billionaires. But literally I think she said last night 100 million Americans would get a middle-class tax cut under her plan. Sign me up.
On the possibility of Trump-Gallego voters
BRODIE: Well so, Aaron, I think to Lorna’s point, how does Kamala Harris try to go about maybe taking some of those swing voters or trying to convince some of those Trump-Gallego voters that instead of being a Trump-Gallego voter, they should be a Harris-Gallego voter?
LIEBERMAN: My legislative district, when I was in the Legislature, was exactly reflective of the state in terms of percentages. More Republicans than Democrats, independents who kind of decide stuff. What I saw overwhelmingly was what decided elections were the people who didn’t like crazy at this point. And now we’ve got crazy-crazy on the Republican side with Trump and Kari Lake and sane-sane.
And frankly, Joe Biden to many people just felt too old. And it kind of gave them pause to consider the crazy. We’re back to a much cleaner race. And those independent folks, a lot of them are Republicans, but they’re Republicans that actually want typical Republican things, not crazy MAGA voters. And they’ve shown again and again and again over the last two election cycles, they’re willing to vote for a Democrat if the Democrat comes off as reasonable.
I think Vice President Harris did a great job last night. And actually walking a very middle road on a whole bunch of things. Presenting as a prosecutor — I mean, she’s not like a community organizer, far-left person. She’s someone who locked up cartel members and other things like that. She’s obviously leaning into that part of her biography now, and frankly, she’s been given a gift of not having to go through a bloody primary, but showing up kind of at the last minute and can just talk about what she needs to do to win a national election.
It’s just like a statewide election in Arizona. You got to be somewhere in the middle to win here.
BRODIE: It’s like a U.K. election, Lorna, where you get like six weeks to campaign. Do you think that Kamala Harris’ message last night will resonate with independent and moderate Republicans in Arizona?
ROMERO FERGUSON: I think so, and I think that was intentional. I think her team was very smart about the topics that she covered last night, and I was actually shocked at some points that she addressed the border directly, which we know that’s the number one target. I mean, you had Trump at the border yesterday blasting Kamala Harris and calling her a failed border czar and whatnot.
And so she talked about that. She talked about foreign policy. She talked about her economic plan, which I think is going to turn some people off. But she talked, and then she’s really trying to reframe herself as tough on crime, right? And so these are the things that Republicans have been hitting her on. And she took it head-on. And I think that was very smart of her.
But she did that in a very safe audience, in the safe crowd. You had four days of a pep rally, everyone loving her, and she’s coming off of now I think what’s going to be the end of a honeymoon period. And so people are really going to look at her record and not just her record as previous to the Biden-Harris administration.
But she was part of the Biden-Harris administration. And people have a tendency to forget that. And so you’re going to see Republicans now for the rest of this cycle, tie her to the failed policies of Biden. And those were the things that were dragging him down with swing voters.
LIEBERMAN: Again, maybe it’s the like 12 million jobs that have been created that people are objecting to so much. Or now the precipitous drop in illegal border crossers since they issued their new policy. I loved how she framed the border issue, which is exactly right.
Democrats all lined up and were willing to vote for a bill that did not have a pathway to citizenship — some things I think many Democrats, including myself, think would be important. It was a bill co-written by some of the most conservative Republicans in the U.S. Senate. It actually would have done something. And Donald Trump made a decision that he would much rather preserve a talking point for his campaign than actually resolve anything at the border. That is exactly how Democrats should be talking about this.
If you want to get something done on the border, vote for Democrats because they are the ones who are actually willing to get it done.
ROMERO FERGUSON: Just to go back to what you were saying about the economy and 12 million jobs. I think if you talk to the average voter, they’re not feeling very good about the economy in their personal finances right now. Frustration with inflation, general cost of living increases, not being able to buy a home. So there’s still frustration. I mean, I know all the politicians like to tout job numbers and this, that and the other …
LIEBERMAN: I’m a recovered politician, Lorna!
ROMERO FERGUSON: But that’s not necessarily trickling down to how people are feeling every single day when it comes to that. When it comes to the border, though, yes, numbers are down. We’re also in the summer. And so border crossings typically go down in the summer. So let’s check and see how these policies are working in the fall. But it just goes to show, it’s been an epic failure over the Biden administration. They did something last-minute to try to save his campaign or any hopes that he had. I hope it’s successful moving forward. But when the fall comes around, we’ll see if it’s actually a good policy or not.
On which candidate needs to win Arizona more
BRODIE: Well, so talking about the border, you referenced former President Trump was there yesterday. He’ll be in the Valley tonight. He clearly also sees that Arizona is an important state for him to win. Do you get the sense that Arizona is more important for Trump or for Harris to win?
ROMERO FERGUSON: I think for Trump, for few reasons. He won in 2016. He lost by a narrow margin in 2020, which he continues to the day to contest and whatnot. And I just think for a Republican in general, losing in Arizona is embarrassing, right? It’s a completely winnable state with the right Republican, right?
LIEBERMAN: That’s true.
ROMERO FERGUSON: And as you’ve been mentioning, Aaron, we’ve seen this growing group of voters that are not afraid to vote for who they think is the better candidate, even if it’s somebody of the opposing party. And when you have somebody who has continued to bash or late Sen. John McCain, it does not resonate well with a lot of Republicans here.
And so I think it’s more important for Trump from a math equation for him to be successful than Harris. I think she has other paths to success.
BRODIE: Lorna mentioned John McCain, he was referenced last night by Congressman Gallego in his speech.
LIEBERMAN: It was awesome. It was awesome when Congressman Gallego said John McCain is a hero, and he’s absolutely right. And the simple fact of the matter that Trump said people who serve are suckers and losers, it’s unforgivable. Honestly, for my view, it’s disqualifying to be the commander in chief.
And I think a lot of, again, those people in the middle are like, “What are we talking about here? You’re going to speak with disdain about people who served in the military, particularly in Arizona?” It is those McCain Republicans who decide elections, quite honestly, and I totally agree with Lorna: A kind of centrist, pragmatic Republican — you could be pretty conservative but not crazy — would likely win every time in a statewide election.
BRODIE: Like a Doug Ducey-type Republican.
Again, look at the numbers. He did it. Amazingly, from a Democratic perspective, there hasn’t been one of those types of people nominated to run statewide for attorney general or governor and U.S. senator in several cycles. The MAGA thing is the gift that keeps on giving to Democrats. Now, I will say we’ve also gotten pretty good at putting up candidates who are kind of in the middle. And people who are more of that centrist band — or at least come off that way — and that’s why Dems have been winning.
ROMERO FERGUSON: And that’s what I was going to say: that come off that way. Because you can make the argument if you look at Ruben Gallego's record, probably not the most moderate. It’s not the most moderate record, right? He’s running a very moderate campaign. He has learned from (Sen.) Kyrsten Sinema, he’s learned from (Gov.) Katie Hobbs, he’s learned from Mark Kelly what the path to success is in Arizona.
It’s to be much more centrist. And I think Democrats have done a good job of adjusting to that dynamic. And Republicans haven’t, unfortunately, when it comes to statewide races.
On RFK Jr. leaving the presidential race
BRODIE: So before we go to a break, let me ask you guys about one more bit of presidential politics, which is RFK Jr. is going to be in town today. He has, as my colleague Wayne Schutsky reported, filed papers to withdraw from the ballot just a few days after he submitted signatures to get on the ballot.
The speculation is he’s going to end his campaign and endorse Trump. Lorna, does that play a role here, do you think? Does that impact anything?
ROMERO FERGUSON: I think probably a small percentage of folks, I think there were some people that just don’t like either of their presidential options that were probably going to be like, “Oh, I’ll probably vote for RFK, whatever.” Like meaningless, throwaway vote. Now I think that’s probably going to make them question their decision moving forward.
Does it mean that Trump is going to pick up more votes? I don’t know amongst the swing voters. I feel like maybe it helps solidify more of his base because I feel like there was more similarity between Trump and RFK when it comes to some of the conspiracy theories and whatnot. And some of those what people think are more far-right policies and things that they’ve been talking about.
But from the swing voters that we’ve been talking about, like the Ducey and Sinema voters in 2018, I don’t think it moves the needle for that.
LIEBERMAN: I think this might be the sign that your campaign is taking on water when you’re trotting out an endorsement from Robert F. Kennedy Jr. It is really weird. If people have a minute, they should look at this. For some reason, the video leaked of him begging Trump for a job after Kamala Harris wouldn’t take his call.
BRODIE: From several weeks ago.
LIEBERMAN: Yeah, from several weeks ago. Incredibly, talk about unserious: Trump goes off on how horrible childhood vaccines are in that video. I mean, it's a crazy thing to see. Childhood vaccines, which have saved the lives of 150 million Earthlings, and the guy who’s running to be president, thinking he’s catering favor with this two-bit party switcher, somehow is talking about how horrible child vaccines are.
This is a guy who could be president? To me, that’s the scariest thing about this whole thing. I think it actually will help Trump to get him out of the race. I think the Kennedy name will make some noise overall, particularly in the endorsement. But let’s just remember he called Kamala and she wouldn’t pick up.
