KJZZ’s Friday NewsCap revisits some of the biggest stories of the week from Arizona and beyond.
To talk about new polls on the presidential and Senate races in Arizona, the end of the lawsuit over Gov. Katie Hobbs’ state agency directors and more, The Show sat down with Daniel Scarpinato, former chief of staff to Gov. Doug Ducey, now with the firm Winged Victory; and former congressional staffer Roy Herrera.
Conversation highlights
MARK BRODIE: We don’t love to spend a lot of time on polls, and obviously tons of numbers on the radio is not great. But there are a number of new polls that came out this week about both the presidential race — mostly that one — one about the Senate race. I want to start with sort of the overall numbers and the trends you guys are seeing in the presidential race.
There was a poll from (OH Predictive Insights) that found former President Trump leading Vice President Harris in Arizona by 3 points. Emerson College had a similar margin, with former President Trump leading. Fox News had a poll that found a Harris leading by a point in Arizona. Daniel, obviously these numbers are fungible. It’s still a couple months away from Election Day. What do these snapshots in time tell you about where we are right now?
DANIEL SCARPINATO: I think where I see things is people call us a swing state. We are. But in many ways we’re more of a divided state. I think you have about 46-48% on either side that have made up their minds, and that’s where these races are really going to start.
I always felt like the polling that we saw before President Biden got out of the race was not really realistic. I think in this environment for a candidate to win Arizona in a race like that by 6 to 8 points is probably not going to happen. So I think that we’re back to a point of a more stable, normal race. I do think President Trump has rebounded a bit. And this is going to be a barn burner.
What I find more interesting as a consumer of this information than the polling is sitting in on focus groups with swing voters. And you really get a sense of how conflicted they are and how they’re making their decisions and how much — in a way that isn’t really reflective in the polling — how much economic anxiety is driving a lot of their feelings about all these issues, including immigration and the border.
And so I think that the candidates who talk about economic issues, that’s really the spot that’s going to move a lot of these swing voters.
BRODIE: Roy, what are you seeing here? Obviously as Daniel said, it’s going to be close here. I mean, maybe 10,000 votes like four years ago close. But is that kind of what you’re seeing in these varying poll numbers?
ROY HERRERA: I think that’s right. There’s a range here, but it all points to one thing, which is that it’s basically a toss up. It’s basically tied right now, and your margin of 10,000 votes — that’s what Biden won by in 2020. I can totally see a scenario with either Harris or Trump wins by 10,000 votes again.
And so I think we’re kind of back to where we were. I will say if you’re a Democrat, you’re feeling a lot better than you did maybe six weeks ago because the polling after the debate issue with President Biden was really bad. And of course that was one of the reasons I think he probably got out of the race.
And so now being in the race, essentially in a toss up scenario, I think is a good position. And I think it's kind of the original position. I think it reflects the nature of the state. And then when I think about some of the issues that Scarp brought up, I totally agree. Issues like the economy, like the border are animating a lot of people. I would also say that the abortion issue.
In that Fox News poll, they did a poll of the abortion initiative here in Arizona, and I think the approval was something like 73% or something like that. So while some issues I think will play well for the Democrats — that includes that issue — there are some issues that will play well for Republicans. We’re just going to have this down-to-the-wire fight.
BRODIE: And I think to both of your points, we saw this week that the firm AdImpact, which tracks political advertising, found that the Phoenix market is the third most heavily invested-in market between now and Election Day, more than $107 million worth of TV ads. With due respect to what you guys both do for living, maybe not a great idea to turn on your TV between now and then?
SCARPINATO: I think that’s right. And I have questioned how much impact this will really have on the presidential race. I’m not sure that this race is about advertising. I think it’s about much more because there’s so much attention on it. People have such strong feelings about Donald Trump, and they’re starting to formulate an opinion about Vice President Harris.
There’s obviously a ton of money being put into advertising on that. So much of it to me feels kind of like garbage in, garbage out to the voter, because I think that they’re making their decisions based on things that they’re seeing in the news or reading.
I think social media has a big impact. Whereas maybe a decade ago, I think that would have been, really the weight of message, the candidate who is winning the TV war, I think would be better positioned. I just don’t really see it that way anymore.
BRODIE: Is there a place still — in a streaming world, in a skip-ads world, in a DVR where you can fast forward through ads world — is there still a place for that?
HERRERA: I think so, I mean, I tend to agree with Scarp — particularly in the presidential race — because again, everyone’s entrenched in their views on both candidates. And also the money is going to be basically the same.
So to answer your question, I think where it really matters is when there is a disparity, one side does have a lot more money than the other. And maybe we’re going to talk about the Senate race, but that’s a good example of where that actually could matter, because it seems like Ruben Gallego’s going to have a lot more money than Kari Lake.
So in that scenario and then also in scenarios where maybe people don’t know the candidates very well, that’s where it’ll matter. But at the presidential level, I don’t think it does because everybody knows these people.
BRODIE: Well, let’s talk about the Senate race then, because there was a poll this week, an OH poll that found Congressman Gallego leading Kari Lake by seven points, 47-40%, which is fairly in line with other polls. We’ve seen Congressman Gallego having — at least the public polls that have been released — the nonpartisan polls that have shown Congressman Gallego with a decent sized lead over Kari Lake. Do you anticipate that this race is going to be as close as either Senate races that we’ve seen over the last several cycles here or the presidential race?
SCARPINATO: I do. I think it’s going to tighten. Ruben Gallego, I think has had an edge in part because he has been up on television since March or April. I think you’re going to see it tighten after Labor Day. I think the cavalry is coming for Kari in this race. And I also think, when you look at all the races here — it goes back to what we were talking about earlier — Mark Kelly-Blake Masters race. Mark Kelly won by six points with $100 million and so many advantages built into that. And that’s now considered a blowout in Arizona. So I do think this will be tight, and I think it’ll be a barn burner and a coin flip, like every other race we’ve seen at the top of the ticket in Arizona.
BRODIE: I wonder though, Daniel, if to some extent Kari Lake has a similar issue as Donald Trump and maybe to an extent Kamala Harris, which is that people already know her. And because she’s been on TV for a long time, she ran two years ago, and for better or worse, they’ve already formed an opinion of her. Like I wonder if for her there’s a lot of movement left. Whereas someone like Gallego, who has served in Congress for a long time, but around the state maybe voters don’t know him as much. Opinions can go up and down on him.
SCARPINATO: I think opinions can go up and down on him. I think there’s going to be a lot of resources coming in to define him over the next several weeks. And that will be a key component to how this race shakes out. Are Kari’s allies on the right able to define Ruben in a way that allows her to really win the voters that are going to vote for Donald Trump? Because if she wins those voters, then she wins. So I think that you’re going to see a lot more polarization in this race that you haven’t seen through the summer.
BRODIE: Roy, do you see this race tightening as we get closer to Election Day as well?
HERRERA: I mean, yes, in a sense, because everything gets tighter. Now, tightening is different than it being tight, right? In that Fox News poll I think he’s up by 11 or something over Kari Lake. Do I think it’s going to end up with a spread of 11? Probably not. Because again, this is Arizona. But I think the Mark Kelly-Blake Masters race is pretty instructive because I think this is where it’s going to end up, where you’re in that 5-6 point range.
And the reason I think I’m confident of that is because, to Scarp’s point, there is this element of the electorate that you have to win independents that you have to win statewide. And Kari Lake has demonstrated no ability to actually win those people over. And if anything, I think she’s a worse candidate than she was when she ran for the governor’s race. So that would be my concern there.
Now on the money issue, I obviously defer to Scarp, he knows Republican politics better than I do. But I do wonder if the cavalry is coming at the level that she might need. And the reason I say that is because it’s not necessary for national Republicans to take the U.S. Senate with the Arizona Senate seat. They can take it back with a Montana seat or Ohio. And so I wonder if the polling is that bad in another month or in October where Ruben’s up by 11, does the cavalry come in? Or do they concentrate on other states that are more winnable?
BRODIE: Daniel, to Roy’s point, there’s been a lot made of Ruben Gallego’s money advantage over Kari Lake, just like the campaign’s. But I think the question is — and the question has always been — how much outside money would come in. There’s always been an assumption that both candidates would basically have what they need to get their messages across in the ways they want.
I’m wondering, though, given that there’s polling in Montana, there’s polling in West Virginia that shows those are maybe easier pickup opportunities for Republicans. Does all that outside money come in for Kari Lake that maybe she was expecting?
SCARPINATO: I think it will. I think the Senate playing field is relatively small. So, I don’t think that from a national standpoint you can write off any state. So I think Arizona, this will be a marquee race nationally nonetheless. I actually think Kari has a way better campaign this time around. I think she’s got a great team.
And the governor’s race was very tight. And so I think she actually has shown an ability to get a race really close. And I just think all of these races are going to be essentially tied in Arizona moving forward. And it’s just going to come down to the wire.
