KJZZ’s Friday NewsCap revisits some of the biggest stories of the week from Arizona and beyond.
To talk about the latest in the disagreement between the Maricopa County Board of Supervisors and Recorder, questions about whether an appointment is allowable and more, The Show sat down with Chip Scutari of S+C Communications and attorney Tom Ryan.
Transcript
MARK BRODIE: Hi, I'm Mark Brodie and this is the Friday NewsCap podcast. Each week, we review the biggest stories with experts, reporters and commentators to put the news in perspective. Here's this week’s episode.
MARK KELLY: Most Americans can agree that we can enforce our laws without chaos in the streets or tearing hard-working families apart. And that our country would benefit from an immigration system that is fair.
JUSTIN HEAP: Now that the court has directed the board to follow through on that commitment, the response appears to be not action but more delay through a costly appeal.
TIM LA SOTA: And at this point, she’s probably the only person that could file such a suit, so I sent that letter hoping she would get going on this.
WARREN PETERSEN: What’s happening right now is we’re meeting every day or every other day on the budget. We have a proposal and we’re really close to having the votes to move it forward.
LISA FINK: This bill ensures that Arizonans are not forced to choose between their bodily autonomy and their ability to work, learn, travel or to participate in public life.
RUBEN GALLEGO: You said to Sen. Kennedy that President Trump never demanded you to cut interest rates in your job interview. Is that your sworn testimony?
KEVIN WARSH: That is, Senator.
RUBEN GALLEGO: OK, well someone here is lying then.
MARK BRODIE: And joining me to talk about the latest in the disagreement between the Maricopa County Board of Supervisors and recorder, questions about whether an appointment is allowable and more are Chip Scutari of S&C Communications — good morning, Chip.
CHIP SCUTARI: Good morning, happy Friday.
MARK BRODIE: Happy Friday to you. And attorney Tom Ryan. Tom, good morning, happy Friday to you.
TOM RYAN: Good morning, happy Friday to you as well.
MARK BRODIE: So Chip, let me start with you on this Maricopa County situation. There’s been a kind of fairly longstanding at this point disagreement between the recorder, Justin Heap, and the Board of Supervisors, in large part about who gets to do what when it comes to administering elections.
A state judge this week ruled that Recorder Heap does have the authority to have his IT department come back to him. The county board then decided to ask the judge to stay that ruling, and if not, they’re going to ask for an appeal. We’re also really starting to see some sort of disagreement within members of the Board of Supervisors.
We have an election coming up, in case people hadn’t noticed. What is the impact of that?
CHIP SCUTARI: No, it’s a huge impact. It’s a mess and there’s a massive uncertainty. And as Tom being the attorney on this panel knows, there’s a maze of election statutes.
But this — we have to take a quick step back. The 2020 election in Maricopa County was one of the most scrutinized elections across the country, of all time. And I believe — and I think there’s good evidence — that Maricopa County does a great job of having safe, secure, transparent elections. I think that’s the first thing we have to establish.
The second thing is all of this mess can be kind of traced directly or indirectly to the lies, fraud and tomfoolery of the 2020 elections. When Donald Trump and other people talked about elections being rigged when they weren’t, and these lies — and we’re still feeling the effects of that. And the really big impacts and the real-life impacts or effects of that is that in Tempe, the city of Tempe, they have a May 19th election, I believe.
MARK BRODIE: Right.
CHIP SCUTARI: It’s a jurisdictional election or a municipal election. And there’s something called the Purcell Rule that was named after former Maricopa [County] Recorder Helen Purcell — a case that went, I believe, all the way up to the U.S. Supreme Court — that said there’s a certain amount of time before an election where you cannot make a decision that’s going to impact that upcoming election.
MARK BRODIE: You can’t change the rules too close to the actual election.
CHIP SCUTARI: You can’t change the rules this late in the game, in like the ninth inning of a game. And May 19th, right around the corner, so I hope Judge Scott Blaney does the right thing, issues a stay, just let these midterm elections play out because it’s such a huge election for Congress, for governor, secretary of state, AG. But there’s a lot of uncertainty now and a lot of elections workers who do a good job are in a tight spot right now.
MARK BRODIE: Tom, is there reason to think that a judge — any judge who just made a ruling — would then turn around and say, “Maybe not, let’s just put this on hold for right now”?
TOM RYAN: He should, but I’m not so sure Judge Blaney will do this. And Chip is correct: The Purcell Rule says we don’t make these kinds of decisions so close to this election. And there’s another one on May 29 — a countywide election.
So asking the court to stay it … it’s going to take some time to get this all done. It can’t be done in that short of a period of time. If he’s not going to stay it, then they should appeal it. And I believe that the Court of Appeals would stay it, and I believe that Judge Blaney, more likely than not, would get reversed.
The problem is the way that the county recorder and the county Board of Supervisors have been set up by statute, there’s always been this interplay between who controls what. In the past, we’ve always had agreement. It hasn’t been a problem.
It’s only since MAGA, Trump and all these others have come in with this “election integrity” issue where they’ve challenged — “You know, there’s too much bamboo shoot in our ballots,” or “Let’s bring in the Cyber Ninjas to find out that, oh yeah, Joe Biden really, really, really did win.”
And they can’t let go of it. And so every election is a challenge, even though some of their own candidates win. How is it that Kimberly Yee wins the state treasurer as a Republican and Steve Richer, the Republican, loses his seat? If somebody’s manipulating these elections, they’re doing a pretty lousy job of it so far.
CHIP SCUTARI: I think the worst part and the real-world impact is that it undermines the trust and faith in elections, which, that’s an unfortunate thing. But when people hear about this, they’re confused about, "do I believe this person or this side?” It’s just a ton of uncertainty and it’s a bit of a mess right now.
MARK BRODIE: Chip, what do you make of some of the cracks starting to form on the county board? Specifically between Supervisor [Mark] Stewart and some of his colleagues, most notably the chair, Kate Brophy McGee?
CHIP SCUTARI: You know, really, I’m not surprised, just paying attention to Mr. Stewart’s election. He was always kind of MAGA-lite. He always talked a good game, but there was some evidence where he could join — I don’t know if join is the right word — but could be part of the election denialism crowd.
And I think the interesting thing is Debbie Lesko — Supervisor Lesko, who’s very conservative, no one would question her credentials, pretty tight with President Trump — she has looked at the facts and looked at the rules and kind of is doing the right thing, I believe, in trying to make sure that we have this confidence in our election systems, that they are safe, secure, and transparent.
So it’s of interesting how she’s stepped up and played that role and Mark Stewart is kind of the fly in the ointment, so to speak.
MARK BRODIE: Tom, is there a reason legally for the board to ask for the stay and not just go ahead and appeal?
TOM RYAN: Yes, I think the smart thing to do is to ask for a stay and for the reason that Chip said. It’s because of the Purcell Rule. Let’s hold this off and then let’s take a look at it after this election is over. Let’s not change it so close to the election. So yeah, that makes perfect sense.
But I fully expect Recorder Heap is going to push forward and try and make hay with this, and unfortunately — as Chip correctly said — it’s going to further bring into question the integrity of the election when that question really shouldn’t be asked in the first instance.
MARK BRODIE: Tom, let me stay with you on another legal question. This is over whether or not somebody is legally allowed to hold an office. The Navajo County Supervisors appointed now-former state Rep. David Marshall as the county recorder up there. He had been running for Corporation Commission; he’s since dropped out of that race.
But now Tim La Sota, an attorney that I assume that you know and maybe have worked with or against in the past, is asking the attorney general to decide whether or not Marshall is legally allowed to be Navajo County recorder. And it sounds like the issue is it’s still within his term in the Legislature, even though he’s resigned.
TOM RYAN: Correct. The law does not allow you to do what Marshall is doing. Here’s the problem: You don’t want to have somebody in the state Legislature — representative or Senate — who’s out talking about other positions because now they’re currying favors to get that other position. So that’s why that rule exists.
I have filed a writ of mandamus before. I filed one with then-Attorney General Brnovich over then-chair of the Arizona Corporation Commission Susan [Bitter Smith]. … And Brnovich took it and actually removed Bitter Smith from office.
I read Tim La Sota’s letter. I think he’s correct. I probably would not have taken the swipes at the person who’s supposed to be pursuing the writ of mandamus on your behalf that he did, but I think he’s correct, and I think Kris Mayes will take the steps to have him removed from the County Recorder’s office.
That county has had a lot of problems up there, and the attorney general has intervened in the past up there with the county attorney. So I think she’ll be brave enough to do it again. And I think he should be removed.
CHIP SCUTARI: But — and you tell me, being the attorney on this show — has there ever been a court challenge to this rule about when a term officially ends? I don’t believe there has been.
TOM RYAN: No, there hasn’t. And the best argument Marshall can make is, “I resigned, I’m no longer a member, and so that whole thing doesn’t apply.” But that’s not how the statute is written.
And I think the public policy behind the statute is to prevent someone from currying favor with another — look, when you’re a state senator or state representative, your salary is basically $24,000 plus a daily —
MARK BRODIE: Per diem and everything.
TOM RYAN: Yeah. But if you go to become a county recorder, it’s multiples of that. So you could be using your office to gain a better-paying job out there. That’s why I think that statute is in place.
CHIP SCUTARI: Now what’s not being talked about is kind of the political repercussions of this. I believe the House, the split between Republicans and Democrats in the House of Representatives is 33-27. So now they’re down to 32 with former Rep. Marshall leaving.
The GOP is expected to release their budget next week. So that’s a big deal to replace him as quickly as possible. There’s not a lot of wiggle room there to get the votes up to make sure the GOP budget passes, get it up to Gov. Hobbs, and then she’ll veto it and then they’ll start really negotiating on a budget.
But losing one person with that slim amount of margin is a big deal.
MARK BRODIE: Chip, I’m loath to try to get into somebody else’s head or try to discern motivations, but I’m curious, from a political standpoint, what would be the advantage to David Marshall to leave the Legislature, become county recorder, even though he had to have known that somebody might challenge it? People had telegraphed that they thought that this might not be legal. So knowing that there’s going to be a challenge in all likelihood to his appointment, and also drop out of the race for the office that he apparently wanted to be in?
CHIP SCUTARI: I think it’s a bigger salary. It’s a way less of a commute, obviously, because he’s living up in Navajo County. Probably more stability because if he’s appointed to this, he’s the incumbent, he’ll probably win reelection. He may want to get more involved in the election game, so to speak.
But for those areas, I think that makes sense for — I’m just kind of getting into the thought … just speculating what he thinks. But salary, the lack of a commute, being up there closer to home — I think that may be an easier job for him than being a state lawmaker. Just totally speculating on what I think.
TOM RYAN: The big question for me is, where the heck was the county attorney? Because that’s the county attorney’s job to say, “Mr. Marshall, before you do this, I have to tell you what the Arizona Constitution says and what the statute says, and I don’t think you’ll qualify.”
That never was brought up before Marshall was appointed. That’s what we call legal malpractice.
MARK BRODIE: Interesting. All right, we’ll have to take a quick break. That’s Tom Ryan, I’m also joined by Chip Scutari. I’m Mark Brodie in Phoenix, the Friday Newscap continues in just a moment.
MARK BRODIE: Chip, let me ask you about — we’ve been talking about upcoming elections. Let’s talk about some of the money that is going to be spent in those upcoming elections. And this week on the congressional level, two different PACs, political action committees — one basically associated with House Speaker Mike Johnson on the Republican side, another on the Democratic side — both announced they’re spending millions of dollars in the state.
The one, the Congressional Leadership Fund, which is associated with Mike Johnson, has reserved $5.8 million in Phoenix for the fall for TV ads, streaming ads, digital ads; a little more than $4 million in Tucson.
The House Majority PAC, which supports Democrats, has reserved a little more than $7.5 million for Phoenix, a little more than $2.5 million in Tucson. This … seems like an indication that both sides consider, I’m assuming this is CD1, the David Schweikert district, which is going to be an open seat, and in Tucson, Juan Ciscomani’s district, CD6. Both sides — it seems like there’s evidence — see that as winnable.
CHIP SCUTARI: Oh yeah. Those two congressional districts you just mentioned are two of the most competitive swing districts in the entire country. And with the Republicans holding such a slim advantage in the House, both sides are doing everything they can to sway the advantage.
Reading the polls — not being partisan, but reading the polls — President Trump’s approval rating keeps dropping, whether it’s Iran or the economy or whatever. I think if the Democrats just kind of stay in the ballpark of money and advertising with the Republicans, that they’re going to be fine. Just because every sign — consumer confidence is down, there’s other telltale signs about the economy — that this is probably not going to be a good year for Republicans, and that’s usually the way it is after a midterm with, you know, after a Republican being elected, their party can struggle. It happens on both sides of the political spectrum.
So I think the money is important, but I also think it’s going to be the momentum and what the campaign messages are about much more. Sometimes there’s the law of diminishing returns. You can have so much money, but one political consultant said you can drop a piano on someone one time; the second time it doesn’t really hurt as much. I’m stealing that from another political consultant, but it’s a good way to explain it.
MARK BRODIE: Do you think, Chip, of those two districts —Republicans are obviously defending both of them even though it’s an open seat in CD1, it’s held by a Republican, David Schweikert. Do you think, are Republicans more nervous about one or the other of those?
CHIP SCUTARI: You know, I would say I think they’re nervous about both, really. And I, as a CD1 voter, longtime CD1 voter, I’ll believe it when I see it when a Democrat wins that race. You know, we’ll see. It’s going to be up for grabs.
And I think Rep. Ciscomani is going to have a really tough reelection fight on his hands down in Tucson. If I had to pick one, I’d say that one is probably more likely to swing Democrat.
MARK BRODIE: CD6 in Tucson. OK.
CHIP SCUTARI: Even though I think Ciscomani’s an excellent campaigner and he’s good on the stump, but I think they probably have a better chance just with the demographics and kind of the election dynamics of winning that one. But we’ll see. Both could go Republican.
TOM RYAN: JoAnna Mendoza down there in CD6 has really raised a lot of money.
MARK BRODIE: The Democratic candidate.
TOM RYAN: The Democratic candidate. And she’s been polling well and doing a lot of campaigning down there. I think that one, and I agree with Chip, I think that one will shift back to the Democratic side.
As for CD1, it really — that one is I think more up in the air because who’s coming out of it?
MARK BRODIE: Big primaries on both sides of that one.
TOM RYAN: Big primary on both sides. Amish Shah is a tough campaigner because he wears out shoe leather. He gets out and knocks on doors. And Marlene Galan Woods is a very attractive candidate, both politically and physically. You would think that she would be doing much better than she is, but Amish Shah seems to be way ahead of her in the polling data that I’ve seen.
CHIP SCUTARI: See, now if I was the DCCC, you know, in charge of these elections, what they did in the Tucson area was smart. I don’t know if they did this on purpose, but they got those other candidates out of the race.
In CD1 up here in Scottsdale-Fountain Hills, like Tom said, there’s five or six really good candidates, so they’re all fighting. So they’re going to have less time to make the case against the Republican. I would have cleared the field if I was running these races, but I’m not in that position.
MARK BRODIE: Well, it’s a good point, Tom, because, for example in CD1, one of the candidates on the Republican side is Jay Feeley, who you would think, being a former NFL player and sideline reporter, most people have at least heard of his name even if they don’t know much about him politically.
And with both sides spending a ton of money in that district on that race, could it be — it might be the issues on the margins like name ID that come down to it. And if you’re fighting — Feeley, of course, has a primary. He’s not necessarily going to come out of that.
But on the Democratic side, you have at least two candidates who have run before in primaries in the recent past still going at it with each other.
TOM RYAN: Yes. We just got to see who comes out of the primaries here. Again, that’s going to be the tell of the tape. If it’s Marlene Galan Woods, I think she would probably take down the Republican candidate, even if it’s Jay Feeley. I do. If it’s Amish Shah, and he’s a great campaigner —
MARK BRODIE: He won the primary two years ago.
TOM RYAN: Two years ago. But he got stomped in the — it wasn’t very close in the last election, as I recall. I think once you get past the primary, though, I think it is going to be how long are the coattails of Donald Trump? And they don’t look very long this election.
In fact, you probably don’t want to be hanging onto them at all in a swing district like CD1. You really want to start showing some independence from Trump and MAGA. MAGA candidates on a statewide basis have not been doing well. On a legislative district basis, they seem to do well.
But on a statewide basis, you know, that’s why we don’t have a Gov. Kari Lake or an Attorney General Abe Hamadeh or a U.S. Sen. McSally or Wendy Rogers. So, it really depends on how MAGA Jay Feeley is going to be, how Trumpian Jay Feeley’s going to be or any of the other candidates coming out of the GOP.
CHIP SCUTARI: But the big difference in CD1 obviously is Amish Shah lost to longtime incumbent David Schweikert, who’s now running for governor and has vacated the seat. So it’s an up-for-grabs seat. So that could sway a few things. And this will be a much better cycle — or should be — for Democrats than Republicans.
MARK BRODIE: Chip, one more fundraising question I want to ask you about. It seems if you’re a U.S. senator and you have a fight with the Trump administration, it’s good for your bottom line, huh?
CHIP SCUTARI: Incumbency has its privileges. And before this, Sen. Kelly is just a monster of a fundraiser.
MARK BRODIE: He always has been kind of a big fundraiser.
CHIP SCUTARI: Yes, but this has just jacked it up, this fight with Pete Hegseth, the Secretary of War, Secretary of Defense, whatever you call him. But he’s just been a brilliant fundraiser. And almost like John Kyl was back in the day, Republican John Kyl. And these are like presidential contender numbers. And of course, he’s on the short list to run in 2028 or at least be on the considered list.
So, yeah, incumbency has its privileges. You saw the same thing with Gov. Katie Hobbs, who has a massive amount of cash on hand. Like, these numbers just dwarf what was, you know, thought of five or six years ago. But Sen. Kelly is just super impressive; even my, you know, Republicans have to say, “Wow, this guy is a juggernaut.”
MARK BRODIE: Tom, at least when it comes to Governor Hobbs, which Chip mentioned, she also has been sending out press releases touting her fundraising. In a race like that — she’s obviously on the ballot this year — how much does it matter how much the candidate raises?
Because it’s obviously going to be a lot of outside money. Like, if Andy Biggs is the nominee on the Republican side, Turning Point is going to spend a lot of money. They’ve said they’re going to spend a lot of money on his behalf.
So I’m wondering, from your perspective, how much does it matter what the candidate and their campaign raises versus all of the outside money that’s going to come in?
TOM RYAN: That’s a great question. I think the idea of what the candidate raises really shows their level of popularity with the people that need to support them. They have no control about the out-of-state money. But it does show something here. Katie Hobbs is a known commodity. And she’s been more of a centrist than a progressive in her administration.
They’ve tried to create a whole series of performative bills to force her to veto so they can call her the “veto queen” and everything else like that. People like to see a governor that’s active, that’s protective, that seems to be paying attention to things. And Katie Hobbs has been doing that.
Personally, is she — you know, she’s got kind of a funny voice, she doesn’t come off strong, she didn’t debate in the last election, and yet she still won. Andy Biggs has not learned how to deal with that. He’s going to probably go the same way Kari Lake did. I really do believe that. TPUSA is going to come in and be very MAGA-like, and it’s going to hurt him. I think, even with all the money they’re going to bring. I think it’s going to hurt him in the general election.
MARK BRODIE: Interesting. Alright guys, we’ll have to leave it there. Tom Ryan, Chip Scutari, thanks to both. I really appreciate it.
TOM RYAN: Thank you.
CHIP SCUTARI: Thank you.
MARK BRODIE: You've been listening to the Friday NewsCap from KJZZ’s The Show. It’s an original podcast recapping the week's biggest stories with experts, commentators and reporters. You can get the full show podcast at podcast.kjzz.org. I'm Mark Brodie, thanks for listening.
