KJZZ’s Friday NewsCap revisits some of the biggest stories of the week from Arizona and beyond.
Joining The Show talk about what’s next for the state budget, after the governor vetoed a GOP plan; a controversial congressional endorsement; and more are Matthew Benson of Veridus and Sam Richard of Consilium Consulting.
Transcript
MARK BRODIE: Hi, I’m Mark Brodie, and this is the Friday NewsCap podcast from KJZZ’s The Show. Each Friday, we review the biggest and most important political stories of the week with a panel of experts, which puts those stories into perspective to help us understand why they matter.
Here’s this week’s episode:
STEVE MONTENEGRO (CLIP): This budget focuses on what matters most to Arizona families: higher take-home pay, lower costs, protecting core services, and a responsible plan for state spending.
ANALISE ORTIZ (CLIP): This bill would defund affordable housing in the state of Arizona at a time of record-breaking evictions and at a time when Arizona has unfortunately become one of the most expensive places in the country to live.
KEVIN VOLK (CLIP): I oppose this motion to adjourn because as of now, we have not done enough for the Arizonans we were sent here to serve. We haven't done enough to build an Arizona we can afford yet.
ADRIAN FONTES (CLIP): We're going to do everything that we can to help those voters in Pinal County, but unfortunately for now, the politics have won in the court, and we're going to try to figure out what's next.
TOM HOMAN (CLIP): So what's going to happen with places like New York, these people who want to pass this ridiculous legislation not to work with us? We're going to flood the zone. You're going to see more ICE agents you've ever seen before.
YASSAMIN ANSARI (CLIP): I feel very comfortable saying that Howard Lutnick is a pathological liar who is enabling the most egregious cover-up in American history.
MARK BRODIE: And joining me to talk about what's next for the state budget after the governor vetoed a GOP plan, a controversial congressional endorsement and more are Matthew Benson of Veridus, good morning.
MATTHEW BENSON: Good morning.
MARK BRODIE: And Sam Richard of Concilium Consulting, Sam good morning to you.
SAM RICHARD: Good morning, great to be here.
MARK BRODIE: Good to have you guys both here. So Sam, let me start with you on this 1st Congressional District. This is the East Valley district that David Schweikert currently holds a seat; he's leaving it to, of course, run for governor. The DCCC, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee whose job it is to elect Democrats to the U.S. House of Representatives this week, threw its support behind Marlene Galan-Woods, who is running in a contested primary against, among others, Amish Shah.
Why would a national organization sort of try to tip the scale in a contested primary like that?
SAM RICHARD: I think there are a variety of reasons why and I think many of them are legitimate, some of them are not. I mean, I think that both of those kind of top-tier candidates in the race ran last cycle and I think that there was, you know, a lot of lessons learned from both camps. But I think one of the overarching lessons is that Dr. Shah has always been an independent despite his allegiance to the Democratic Party.
So, you know, the D-Trip is very much an institution and, you know, a long-standing organization that kind of requires allegiance to the party, and that's never been Dr. Shah's thing. So I think while you kind of look at this as maybe a negative for his campaign, I think it actually serves him quite well because all of the polling that I've seen so far shows that he's going to run away with it.
But I think, you know, what's interesting about our focus on that primary is that, you know, the Republican primary is focusing on who's less of a Democrat or more of a Democrat in that. So it's really just an early Democratic general election, um, you know, after Congressman Schweikert left the seat to run for governor. So it's a wide-open race and I think whoever comes out of the Democratic primary is the clear favorite, and I think the D-Trip is, you know, looking at somebody who might, you know, be easier to play nice with in the general election and I think that voters are going to respond to that however they respond to that.
MARK BRODIE: Yeah, the Republican side, to Sam's point, had a debate this week. But I wonder, like Sam you mentioned, you know, if she gets through the primary, she might, the D-Trip might have an easier time sort of working with her than somebody else. Does this help her get through the primary?
SAM RICHARD: I think it's definitely an important thing, but I think right now she's working from behind in the primary right now. Both from a name ID — I mean, Dr. Shah won the Democratic nomination for Congressional District 1 two years ago. He's very well known, he has an incredible name ID, he's a prolific fundraiser, he's a prolific campaigner. I think he's knocked on every door at least three times in any district he's ever run in.
So I think that perhaps maybe the D-Trip was looking at a way to try to make it a bit more competitive because maybe they didn't want Dr. Shah to run away with it and maybe hedge against, you know, the potential that Marlene wins the primary. But I think right now, sitting on, you know, May 8th, I would be surprised if Dr. Shah is not the nominee heading into the general election.
MARK BRODIE: So Matt, Sam mentioned that this might actually help Amish Shah in some ways. He, after this announcement came out, he put out a statement of his own criticizing what he called "Washington elites" for, you know, trying to tip the, put their thumb on the scale in this race. Do you think this could potentially help Shah in this primary?
MATTHEW BENSON: I don't know that it helps him. I mean, it's going to — look, the impact of the decision by the DCCC is to put more money behind Woods. And so that certainly is theoretically a boost to her. But let's just call it what it is: it's a miscalculation on the DCCC's part. They don't know CD1. This is a right-of-center district with a long history of electing Republicans, including its current congressman, David Schweikert. It is a swing district, it is in play, no question.
But the strongest candidate the Democrats could put forward is somebody like Shah, who is sort of an independent, you know, has that independent streak about him. So, you know, the idea that they're going to instead back the other candidate who's further left, more progressive, "quote-unquote" whatever, I think maybe that helps in a primary, but it doesn't help in a general election, which is what this is all about.
MARK BRODIE: Well, and Matt, to your point, this is one of those districts that across the country national Democrats are really looking at, that if they want to flip the House, this seems to be one that they would maybe not need but really, really like to have.
MATTHEW BENSON: No, they need it.
MARK BRODIE: You think they actually need this district?
MATTHEW BENSON: Yes. And I mean, look, we just saw today with the Virginia Supreme Court overturned the redistricting out there. So those five seats, I think it was, will instead of being Democrat-aligned seats, they will be strongly Republican seats. So if Democrats want to take the House, I think CD1 becomes increasingly important to them now. And outside of, you know, Ciscomani's district down in Tucson, this is the most in-play district in the state.
MARK BRODIE: Sam, let's say for a minute that Shah is the nominee again. Does it matter at that point in the general election that the DCCC backed one of his opponents and not him?
SAM RICHARD: No. I think that, you know, one of the organizing principles that I've always lived by is no permanent friends, no permanent enemies. And I think that, you know, come July 22nd, the day after the primary, everyone's going to dust themselves off and they'll have a clarion call to see what happens in early November, and the D-Trip will support whoever emerges from the Democratic primary.
MARK BRODIE: OK. Guys, let's move on to the state Capitol this week because after, it seems like on Monday we're not going to be able to talk about the state Capitol much for a little while because the Legislature's going to be taking a little bit of a break. The Senate, as expected, approved the budget that the House had approved the prior week. Again, as expected, Governor Hobbs vetoed it. Matt, is this just setting it up for the actual real negotiations to start?
MATTHEW BENSON: Yeah, everything has to fall apart before it can come together; we see this every session. So I think the real question is how motivated legislators are to try to get a deal quickly with the governor and, you know, what you've seen this week is not just the veto, but then you saw both the House and Senate, you know, the House is out until June 1st, the Senate is going to come back on Monday and then they'll adjourn until June 1st. So there's going to be a period of weeks here, three-plus weeks, where there's really nothing happening at the Capitol outside of some budget talks. So who's going to blink? You know, that's really the question here, and there are huge political implications obviously.
MARK BRODIE: Does it matter that — so obviously, you know, legislators, those who are running for reelection or running for something else — the primary, to Sam's point, is coming up not that long from now. Does it help them that they now have a few weeks to sort of be out in their districts meeting constituents, knocking on doors? They obviously can't take money from lobbyists because the session is still in session, but does this help them maybe and then they come back and finish up what they need to do, and then because they're probably not going to have a lot of time from the time they finish the session to when people start voting?
MATTHEW BENSON: I think their preference would be to just get the budget done and be done with the session and get out there on the campaign trail full-time and be able to raise money from everybody, including lobbyists, and you know, do their thing. The advantage is really with the governor, who, you know, a lot of my old boss Governor Brewer liked to say, "I'm here year-round." So time is really on her side.
SAM RICHARD: And I would say, you know, we're sitting in here in studio as political insiders talking about how this was, you know, a quote-unquote "performative budget" that we knew was going to fall apart before we get to the real thing, but there was a real vote on a budget that was bad for families, bad for the economy, and bad for public safety.
And really, frankly, it was only good for Andy Biggs in his campaign for governor. And these were real votes that the members of the legislature have to go back to their district and talk about why they supported a cut for SunBucks, which feeds 600,000 of our neighbors who rely on these food programs during the summer, or things like a complete cut — no new money for the Department of Forestry and Fire Management while the Hazen Fire burns at 10% containment.
So I think that these folks who are going to also be on the ballot have to go back to their neighbors, back to their districts, and try to run for reelection and justify a vote for a budget that did not move Arizona forward in any way just to be able to get to a point to actually have a negotiation with the adults in the room is going to be something that I think will have disastrous political consequences for the folks who chose to vote for this.
MARK BRODIE: Sam, what do you think are the biggest stumbling blocks for each side? Like, what are the issues that the governor and legislative Republicans are going to be sort of the hardest to move on?
SAM RICHARD: I think that what it really comes down to is whether or not folks on either side of the political spectrum are willing to publicly embrace the reality of the fiscal picture that we have in Arizona. As a result of President Trump's "One Big Beautiful Bill," we have a huge bill coming due to the taxpayers of Arizona in conformity to some of these programs, the strict requirements of some of the public programs that provide resources to our neighbors, and also just the, you know, $6.50 gas because of the conflict in Iran. I think that those are the realities.
Our economy is thriving in some ways, but from a fiscal picture for the state's finances, we're facing some serious questions and some serious dollars. So right now we have partisan conversations that led us to where we're at now. So hopefully now that we can have serious conversations with reality and real numbers in black and white on paper, and I think that will serve the discussion moving forward for the next couple of weeks.
MARK BRODIE: Matt, what about you? What do you think are going to be the biggest sort of hurdles to overcome here?
MATTHEW BENSON: Oh, I think the, there are two main issues, right? Our — the governor would prefer to maintain spending as much as possible and to have smaller tax cuts. And the Republicans are pushing for larger tax cuts; in fact, the proposal legislators put forward was almost $1.5 billion worth of tax cuts. That's really the centerpiece of the legislative budget. And they'd like to have larger program cuts in order to help pay for some of those tax reductions.
And then. Prop 123, which we haven't talked about yet, and the renewal of K-12 funding—that's about $300 million a year that is still sort of hanging out there. I think, look, it's all sort of a tangled mess and you have to — that is going to be the key to getting a budget deal. And is there a way to somehow get Prop. 123 money into the budget, get tax cuts, and use some of this to help reduce program cuts? I think that's probably where you end up finding a budget.
It's going to have to be a cobbled-together coalition once again. Obviously, we have a divided government. I suspect that this earlier budget that got vetoed — and by the way, that may not be the only budget that gets vetoed before we actually get a deal — I don't suspect that's going to matter much. I think what will count is the final product, and we don't know what that's going to be.
MARK BRODIE: Is there a risk with Prop. 123, or maybe you have to build in a contingency, because obviously that has to go back to the voters? So, you know, you can build in, "OK, we're going to assume that this gets passed and we don't have to spend $300 million on schools again," but I wonder, Matt, is there a bit of a risk in doing that? Because the voters could say no.
MATTHEW BENSON: Well, of course. Yes, there's absolutely a risk there. And there's also a risk to Republicans in putting renewal on the budget, which may help drive out, theoretically, K-12 voters, Red for Ed voters, that sort of thing. So all of these things are all part of the calculation that folks are weighing.
MARK BRODIE: Interesting. All right, that's Matthew Benson. I'm also joined by Sam Richard. I'm Mark Brodie in Phoenix. The Friday NewsCap continues in just a moment.
(Music/Transition)
MARK BRODIE: And you're listening to The Show here on 91.5 and kjzz.org. Thank you so much for coming along with us. Got Here and Now coming up this morning at 10 o'clock and then of course at 12:00, it'll be Science Friday. Busy morning in Valley traffic right now. On I-10 eastbound at 67th Avenue, we've still got a crash in the right lanes there and a disabled vehicle at the end of the on-ramp on the westbound US-60; this one is at the Stapley Drive on-ramp. If you'd like to test your knowledge of the Grand Canyon State, check out KJZZ's A-to-Z Quiz. Like one of this week's new questions: "Where in Arizona can you find one of only two active copper smelters in the country?" You can try the A-to-Z Quiz at play.kjzz.org. Sunny skies, 83 degrees right now in Phoenix at 9:34.
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(Music/Transition)
MARK BRODIE: Good morning, it's the Friday News Cap on KJZZ 91.5, I'm Mark Brodie. My guests this week are Sam Richard of Concilium Consulting and Matthew Benson of Veridus.
Sam, gubernatorial candidate Hugh Lytle, who's running on now the No Labels party banner, won a court ruling this week allowing him to stay on the ballot. So he will be in the race for governor. The conventional wisdom, rightly or wrongly, has been that his candidacy is less good for Governor Hobbs than it is for Andy Biggs, thinking that he might draw more votes from Hobbs than Biggs. I'm wondering what kind of impact do you think his candidacy might have?
SAM RICHARD: Absolutely nothing. I just have full faith and confidence in our five-star recruit in Governor Hobbs, who's had a significant track record in her first term, who is already leading in the polls six months before people receive their ballots at home. Mr. Lytle was a former walk-on to ASU to play in the football program and he's clearly walking on here into the political spectrum. Nobody's clamoring for the platform that he's bringing to the race and I think that it's fairly well-defined even though there will be other names on the ballot, it really is going to be Governor Hobbs versus Congressman Biggs, and right now it looks like it's going to be a double-digit victory for Governor Hobbs. I think that will only increase.
MARK BRODIE: So you think even in a race where last time Governor Hobbs won by what, 17,000 votes, having a third-party candidate with a lot of money behind him you think won't matter?
SAM RICHARD: I don't think it's a lot of money in relative terms. I mean, Governor Hobbs herself as well as the outside support from the Democratic Governors Association and other outside groups are going to dwarf whatever money comes in from Mr. Lytle and I just, I just, I understand that I might be a bit Pollyanna-ish or at least the accusation might come from my friend Matt over here that I'm Pollyanna-ish about this, but Governor Hobbs has not ever lost an election, and I don't think that she's going to start now.
MARK BRODIE: Matt, do you think Sam's being Pollyanna-ish?
MATTHEW BENSON: Look, my jaw hit the ground when he said "double-digit victory." I mean, look, anything is possible, but this is still a state where Republicans outnumber Democrats by like 300,000. So yeah, I think any objective observer would say the incumbent has the advantage right now, but I mean it's May 8th, so it's early, a lot can happen.
And back to our friend Hugh Lytle: he doesn't have to be a significant player in this race to have a determinative effect on the race. He can play spoiler even if he only gets 5%, 3%. I mean, Mark, you mentioned how close that election was in 2022 when Governor Hobbs was elected. I mean, if Lytle gets just a few points of people, a "protest vote" if you want to call it that, I mean that could be determinative.
MARK BRODIE: Do you buy into the conventional wisdom that he's more likely to draw votes from Governor Hobbs than Congressman Biggs?
MATTHEW BENSON: I do, simply because he seems to be positioning himself in that way, so to more of a left-leaning audience. And so, you know, the question's going to be when he starts spending real money, what do those ads look like? But I would really be surprised if he's drawing a significant faction of conservative or Republican voters.
MARK BRODIE: Sam, would you expect Governor Hobbs to, in her campaigning, to try to address his candidacy in some way, to either draw distinctions or mention him in some way to try to head off the possibility that some even moderate Republican voters who might have voted for her in the past might now go to Hugh Lytle?
SAM RICHARD: I don't foresee the governor herself or even the campaign addressing Lytle either directly or indirectly. I think that a lot of the outside groups, the allies, the surrogates, they might take a crack at that. But I mean, Governor Hobbs is running a state right now in addition to running a campaign, and I don't think that she is going to be focused on someone who is new to the political scene and really is just being there to play spoiler. It's a philosophical Hail Mary from someone who really isn't even looking to win. And I think that that doesn't deserve a lot of attention from the incumbent who is well on pace to see victory in November.
MATTHEW BENSON: Look, there are only two names that Governor Hobbs is going to reference in this campaign, and those two names are Andy Biggs and Donald Trump. She is not going to talk about Hugh Lytle.
MARK BRODIE: Interesting. All right, so guys, we saw this week a decision: not a ruling, obviously she's not a judge, but a decision from Attorney General Kris Mayes. She had been asked by some Republican state legislators to look into whether an ordinance in Pima County violated state law. This basically says that ICE can't use county resources or county property; they can't stage operations in Pima County.
Matt, Mayes said that that ordinance is OK, it does not run afoul of state law. Republicans in the Legislature are not thrilled about this. What do you make of her decision and maybe the response to it?
MATTHEW BENSON: Well, I think it's interesting in terms of the precedent it potentially sets because we also have cities, the city of Phoenix, city of Tucson as well I believe, that have their own ordinances saying ICE cannot utilize city property or city parks to stage immigration enforcement operations.
So this seems to sort of clear the way for all of that. Now it may still be subject to court action if somebody decides to challenge it. And then I think the real question is, push come to shove, if the feds come in and decide they're going to stage on city or county property, who's going to stop it? And in what way? I have a hard time believing you're going to see sheriff's deputies or city police squaring off with ICE agents on public property.
MARK BRODIE: Well, and Sam, to Matt's point, we heard at the beginning of this segment that Tom Homan, the president's border czar, at the Border Security Expo this week basically said, "Look, if you're in a place that is not cooperating with ICE, we're just going to send a ton of ICE agents in there."
SAM RICHARD: Yeah, you know, that kind of deeply partisan rhetoric or bombastic rhetoric from Mr. Homan is interesting. But I just think that the facts of this issue are that Arizona does not have sanctuary cities. That is absolutely the law; ARS 11-1051 makes that very, very clear. And you know, I think what we're seeing here in some of this attempted rhetoric from Republicans in the legislature and Republicans across the Arizona political spectrum is really trying to weaponize the ghost of SB 1070.
And what Attorney General Mayes is doing is really trying to focus on actual and real law enforcement tactics and these very, you know, headline-grabby type ICE enforcement actions are not something that are going to be welcome here in Arizona because it distracts from real law enforcement priorities. I mean, in the tenure of Attorney General Mayes, she's stopped the movement of over 175 million pounds of fentanyl powder, which would save the lives of 40 million people in the country. So focusing on fentanyl, focusing on drug cartels is very different than non-criminal migrants, and if we can keep our focus there, I think that's going to be best for Arizona and best for the country.
MARK BRODIE: Matt, how big of an issue do you think immigration's going to be playing in these midterm elections?
MATTHEW BENSON: Big. And certainly bigger in the general election I think. And look, I mean, border security is always a potent political issue in Arizona. And so I would caution Democrats who think, "Oh, that issue we put that one behind us, it's just about the economy or gas prices or this or that." No, border security and immigration enforcement are and will always be big issues in Arizona, and I think Democrats have to be careful to be perceived as being obstructionist to immigration enforcement.
MARK BRODIE: Sam, about 30 seconds left, do you agree with that?
SAM RICHARD: I agree in the sense that Attorney General Mayes and the apparatus of Arizona's law enforcement is focused on border security and I think that those results are coming through. I think Arizona is safer because Kris Mayes is attorney general.
MARK BRODIE: All right, we'll have to leave it there. Sam Richard, Matthew Benson, thanks you both for the conversation, I really appreciate it.
MATTHEW BENSON: Thank you.
MARK BRODIE: That’s all for this week’s Friday NewsCap. You can find the full The Show podcast at podcasts.kjzz.org. I’m Mark Brodie, thanks for listening.
