KJZZ’s Friday NewsCap revisits some of the biggest stories of the week from Arizona and beyond.
To talk about the state Supreme Court siding with the Maricopa County recorder in his dispute with the Board of Supervisors, a familiar face taking the lead on support for a ballot measure this fall and more, The Show sat down with former state lawmaker Regina Cobb and Dawn Penich of Agave Strategy.
Transcript
UNDERWRITER: KJZZ’s original production, The Show, is supported by Banner Health, Arizona’s largest nonprofit healthcare system. Last year, Banner reinvested more than $1.1 billion in community health and charity care. Banner Health, nonprofit for Arizona. bannerhealth.com/nonprofitforaz.
MARK BRODIE: Hi, I’m Mark Brodie, and this is the Friday NewsCap podcast from KJZZ’s The Show. Each week, we review the biggest and most important political stories of the week with a panel of experts, which puts those stories into perspective to help us understand why they matter.
Here’s this week’s episode:
KATIE HOBBS: We’ve been focused on what potential federal interference there will be. We are going to be watching this very closely, and we’re working closely with election officials across the state to ensure that our elections are secure.
GREG STANTON: This mass deportation is not what the American people want. We’re going to continue to provide strong oversight. But the announcement by the attorney general of the agreement with Homeland Security to delay any further action on the Surprise warehouse is very good news.
MARISOL GARCIA: After years of lifting up the issues that the ESA reform system had in this state, that there’s a potential to get something done.
OSCAR DE LOS SANTOS: The Republicans in charge of the Legislature have decided to throw firefighters, police officers and teachers under the bus in order to protect the waste, fraud and abuse in the ESA voucher program.
ANDY BIGGS: Nobody asked me to negotiate this. They said, “What do you think?” And I said what I think. And I still think that’s the most equitable deal.
STACY PEARSON: What we needed was a more robust paid program to get us over the top. I mean, the volunteers can sincerely only get so far.
MARK BRODIE: And with me to talk about the State Supreme Court siding with Maricopa County’s recorder in his dispute with the Board of Supervisors, a familiar face taking the lead on support for a ballot measure this fall and more, are former state lawmaker Regina Cobb. Regina, good morning.
REGINA COBB: Good morning, Mark.
MARK BRODIE: And Dawn Penich of Agave Strategy. Dawn, good morning to you.
DAWN PENICH: Good morning.
MARK BRODIE: So Regina, let’s start with Maricopa County. This has been, I feel like we’ve talked about this every week for the last who knows how many weeks it’s been going on, but we got some guidance this week from the State Supreme Court, which sided with Recorder Justin Heap in his conflict with the Board of Supervisors, basically over who runs what when it comes to elections in Maricopa County and what funding goes for and all that sort of thing. What do you, I’m curious what you make of what the court had to say and what the impacts of that might be?
REGINA COBB: I think the court made the right decision. I think there is clear outlines of who does what with Maricopa County. The supervisors do their general election. He does the primary election. I know they made a deal with the last recorder, but if they wanted to make a deal with (Heap), they should have done that. And they didn’t. And so you go back to what the laws dictate.
MARK BRODIE: Do you have concerns about this ruling coming when it did, in the sense that people had already voted and are continuing to vote as they’re trying to implement this?
REGINA COBB: Yes, I do. I did have concerns with that, and I still have concerns because I think some of the things that he might have wanted to have done or should have done were delayed, and we’re already into the primary.
MARK BRODIE: Yeah, Dawn, I mean, how concerned I guess should Maricopa County voters be that, you know, this ruling comes down this week when voting has been going on for a little while already, will continue with the primary in just a couple of weeks now?
DAWN PENICH: Yeah, well, I mean, there is a structure in place, right? There are places to go vote, there is a mail-in deadline. So for someone who wants to make sure their vote gets in and gets counted, the infrastructure is there.
But yeah, it’s a question that we won’t understand, unfortunately, until retrospect allows us to look back and kind of understand what else could have been open, what else should have happened.
So, you know, Helen Purcell, previous recorders have kind of said things should be OK. Um, but I think what’s most important is that we have a really good understanding. And I am very personally curious to know how the relationship between the supervisors and the recorder is from this point on.
And it’s been over a year of constant suing one another back and forth. But at the 11th hour, they actually struck a compromise that the court ruling now supersedes, apparently. But I’m very curious, what was that compromise? Could that have been the first step toward a more productive relationship that will matter in the general?
MARK BRODIE: Well, Dawn, when you talk about the relationship, I think it’s fair to say that it has been not great between the most of the supervisors and and the recorder
DAWN PENICH: Pretty bad.
MARK BRODIE: What will you be looking for going forward then? Because obviously with the primaries, as we’ve talked about, in a couple of weeks, but of course, the general election is not that far away.
DAWN PENICH: Right. Well, you know, up until this point, it’s been a lot of um questions over who has the authority to do what. And if that’s what you’re focused on, then you’re not having conversations about what can we be doing together.
And so that’s what I want to see, is whether they stick with the court ruling — which gave Heap everything — or whether there is some going back to the compromise that they had reached. Can we have more of a “everybody’s in this together” sense? The supervisors have long said that that’s all they want. They just want to be able to all be on the same page. Will the recorder be able to move forward that way?
REGINA COBB: Also, I think they’re both still adversarial, because if you look at the posts that they putting out, uh like Justin Heap just put out his announcement yesterday that his 19-point plan, whatever it is. Uh, and then you get a supervisor saying, “We haven’t seen it yet. When are you going to give it to us?” So there’s still some hard feelings going on there.
MARK BRODIE: Can that be rectified? You’ve served in elected office. Can that be rectified in time for November?
REGINA COBB: I don’t know if it can be rectified completely in time for November. I think we probably — just what Dawn said — things are in place right now, so I think we’ll probably go through this next general election, and until we can look back and say “this should have been done” and “this could have been done if everybody was on the same page.” I think we’re probably not going to be able to rectify what happens this year. But going forward, hopefully we can.
MARK BRODIE: Anything in particular you’re looking for in terms of maybe differences between how things happen in Maricopa County between the July primary and the November general?
REGINA COBB: I don’t see any differences between the primary and the general. I think we’re going to be on task and just Purcell said: Everything is in place, we’re good to go. So I think they’ll be fine I think there could have been improvements. And I think the differences of what the supervisors want and what he wants could be compromised after this.
MARK BRODIE: Dawn, is there a potential perception issue among voters? I feel like we’ve been hearing basically for the last six years about how there are problems with elections, and they’re rigged, and lawsuits, and everything. Even if everything is on the up-and-up and everything goes very smoothly, does all the fighting between the various entities here, does that do anything to voters?
DAWN PENICH: Absolutely. And I think honestly, like we were saying, there are processes in place, there are voting locations, all of that. That’s why it has actually been my top concern through all of this, is the public perception of our election system and the trust and faith that voters have in that system and in their vote being counted. Because if you get too much of the populace to get to a place of “It’s all corrupt, what does it even matter? I’m sitting this one out,” that is not good for our state, for our democracy.
And so that’s the number one thing that I hope would come out of some kind of either getting on the same page, agreeing to the court order, a compromise solution, whatever it is, is starting to have all voices in unison — and Recorder Heap will be the toughest one because he has a history of election denialism — getting everyone on the same page saying our elections are accurate, they are fair, we want you to vote, and we want you to figure out how to best vote in the way that suits your lifestyle.
MARK BRODIE: So Regina, one of the ways that election skeptics, election deniers have been trying to make their case is claiming that people who are not citizens of this country are voting, which we know data show that that is exceedingly rare for noncitizens to vote.
But this week, the Department of Justice in Washington sent what Adrian Fontes, the secretary of state, called a nastygram to uh election officials here and elsewhere, basically saying, “We will prosecute you if we find that there are non-citizens on the voter rolls or who actually vote.”
Obviously a lot of states have already had their primaries and voted. Arizona’s in the middle of it, as we talked about. The general coming up in a few months. Like, are you expecting to see election officials being handcuffed here?
REGINA COBB: Oh no, I don’t. What I do see is uh just what happened is is that they were citing all the laws, saying “You need to abide by all of these rules that we have. You’ve got five days to respond to this.” That’s a that’s a short time period. And I think that that’s why he looked at it as a nastygram.
But really, it’s at the very end of the letter it says, “And we would like to help you,” you know? So if you need help, this is it. But as long as we’re abiding by the laws, I don’t think there’s anything that we’re going to have to be concerned about. And just what you said, it’s a rare thing when it happens. If everything goes smoothly and we’re all in accordance to what we need to do, I think we’ll be fine.
MARK BRODIE: So why send the letter then, if it is very, very, very rare for noncitizens to vote, and election officials are saying, “We are following the laws,” why send the letter in the first place?
REGINA COBB: It’s a political move. Yeah. It makes it look good. And saying “I’m enforcing this,” that’s exactly what it is.
MARK BRODIE: Do you agree with that, Dawn? You’re nodding your head. Political theater here?
DAWN PENICH: It’s a PR stunt, and what it does is serve the larger Trump narrative of election inaccuracy or stolen elections, because it begs the question: Well, why did the Department of Justice have to send that letter? The answer is for no reason, they just chose to, to get some headlines.
But it still plants that seed in the minds of folks saying, “Well, what’s actually going on?” And the answer is everything that’s going on is above board, accurate, valid. And this is Arizona. The vast majority of our county recorders are Republicans who want to make sure that every vote is counted regardless of who is in the White House. And so, yeah.
MARK BRODIE: Well, so I wonder, Dawn, if you think that this in any way helps Adrian Fontes in his reelection. He’s of course going to be on the ballot come November for his reelection bid. His signs say, “protect the voter” or something like that. I might be paraphrasing. But does this become a campaign issue for him?
DAWN PENICH: Oh, yeah. I mean, lots of surveys have been done in Arizona and nationally that people do not like federal meddling in local and state elections. And so the Fontes campaign has obviously done some polling and figured out that as long as he’s standing up for our elections to go the way we the people of Arizona want them to go, that that is a popular position to be in for his reelect.
MARK BRODIE: Regina, you were nodding as well. Does this help Fontes, do you think?
REGINA COBB: I think it does. I think he’s going to use it all the way through his general election. Again, some of the things that we do uh backfire on us, you know?
And so I think this is going to be one of those things that he’s going to like continually put out there. “Look, I’m doing the right thing, and they don’t think I’m doing the right thing, but I am.” So I think he’s going to he’s going to utilize it.
MARK BRODIE: OK. So, well, guys, one more quick thing before we take a break, related to how we vote and the way elections are run. Dawn, we saw a couple of weeks ago now, a group that was trying to collect signatures to put a referendum on the ballot dealing protecting mail-in voting, expanding voting hours, that sort of thing. They realized they did not have the signatures, so they did not turn them in.
Dawn, this is something you have done before. You’ve been out trying to collect signatures to uh to get stuff on the ballot. Are you surprised that that they fell short?
DAWN PENICH: No, they started really late for the number. This was to be a constitutional amendment, which is the higher number of signatures. They started really late with only a couple months to go and with not the type of funding that’s required to pay for that degree of signature collection.
But the organizers knew that going in, and I at least have heard them say, “We just wanted to put the conversation out there, to start talking about other ways to protect mail voting and our voting system.” So I don’t think that even the organizers were surprised that they didn’t make it.
MARK BRODIE: OK. Regina, what do you agree, surprise not surprised that they didn’t make it?
REGINA COBB: I agree with that. I think that they really wanted to say that there’s another referendum out there, and we want you to be aware of what is out there and what’s going on with that one. And so we’re going to do this. I don’t think they planned on getting the signatures.
MARK BRODIE: Do you think that that conversation does raise the conversation at least about the measure that is on the ballot that the Legislature referred?
REGINA COBB: It does. It does. And that referendum still has to be approved. I think they looked at the language yesterday, and there’s three parts to that. And even though that they’re all three in conjunction with each other, they’re trying to do the single-subject denial on that one.
MARK BRODIE: A legal challenge to try to get it kicked off. Interesting.
Dawn, let me start with you on some ESA stuff. A lot of ESA stuff actually going on. Supporters of some guardrails, I guess you could call them, on the ballot turned in their signatures, a lot more than needed. They were immediately challenged by critics.
At the same time, a proposal to maybe have a legislative deal to keep some initiatives off the ballot in exchange for uh some legislative uh guardrails uh fizzled out as a potential special session. I’m curious: Where do you see this issue standing right now as these initiatives — the legal process is going through, the signature verification is going to happen. Assuming that all these make the ballot, like where do you see this standing?
DAWN PENICH: Yeah, well, OK, so a couple parts to that question.
MARK BRODIE: Sorry, it’s very broad. Basically “vouchers, go” is what I asked.
DAWN PENICH: Well, let me answer the last part first. If the measure put up by the teachers’ union and public education advocates, if that does get to the November ballot, it will pass with flying colors. We know that anytime private school vouchers are put to the people — and this is in Arizona, but also across the country — that voters look to limit, stop, or regulate private school vouchers.
So I fully expect that to be the case. Now, whether the poison pill measure that Republicans put on the ballot —
MARK BRODIE: That’s the referendum for military families ESAs.
DAWN PENICH: Right. And we know that it’s a poison pill because there are around 100,000 students on the ESA voucher program currently. About a thousand of those 100,000 are military families. So we know that this is kind of being put up as a poster child, a sympathetic poster child to actually invalidate the teachers’ union measure that would substantially regulate the voucher program.
But there’s a lot of obstacles and things that need to happen before then. First of all, they collected I think 420,000 —
MARK BRODIE: Something like that, yeah.
DAWN PENICH: Something like that. Well, remember that in paid signature collection, you look at a validity rate of about 65%. So that automatically knocks 100,000 signatures out. Then you start to look at things like what was said to in order to get people to sign.
And so I bring all of those up because those are the legal challenges that the pro-voucher groups have already said they will be waging in the courts. And so first we have to watch whether all those signatures make it, then we’ll look at the language itself and whether there are any legal challenges to the way the language is written, and that’s for any of these measures.
Then we’ll know what we actually do and don’t get to vote on. And when there’s both a pro-reform and an anti-reform measures on the same ballot, normally whichever one gets the highest number of votes will win if they’re in conflict with one another. But there’s a legal question this time of whether that still pertains if one is constitutional.
MARK BRODIE: Right, the one the Legislature referred with the poison pill is constitutional.
DAWN PENICH: The poison pill is constitutional. The public school advocate one is statutory. So is that apples and oranges? So a lot of legal questions alone until we get to November.
MARK BRODIE: Yeah. Regina, do you agree with Dawn that assuming the teachers’ union measure makes the ballot, do you think it passes?
REGINA COBB: Um, I it it could pass, but the other one could pass also. I think what happens when you have competing initiatives, the public’s confused. They don’t know what they’re voting on. And so you could end up with both of them.
If you end up with both of them, then the legal challenge is whether the teachers’ union one gets thrown out or not. I think a better way — I’m not a big fan of initiatives. I think it’s uh hard. It’s just like the one we were talking about earlier where you have three parts to it. The public doesn’t always see the little intricacies that you have in those initiatives. So I would have loved to have seen a compromise happen with the Legislature rather than it going to the ballot.
MARK BRODIE: Do you what do you make of the fact that former Gov. (Doug) Ducey is stepping forward and saying he’s going to be helping to lead the campaign in support of the ESA for military families that contains the provision that Dawn mentioned that basically invalidates anything else dealing with ESAs?
REGINA COBB: No surprise. No surprise. Gov. Ducey’s always been a big advocate of the ESA program, of the voucher program, however you want to call it. He’s been huge on this. He’s school choice all the way down the line. So I would have definitely expected him to engage in this.
MARK BRODIE: What do you see as his role, or what does he bring to that campaign?
REGINA COBB: Well, eight years of experience with it, for one thing. And I think he’s been a proven leader. So I could see him leading this and getting it done. He did Prop 123. I mean, when we had issues with getting funding for schools, he pushed Prop 123. And honestly, he did a fantastic job.
MARK BRODIE: And of course, signed the universal vouchers, right? This is kind of his thing.
REGINA COBB: This is his baby. Yeah.
MARK BRODIE: So, Dawn, how do you, if you are, let’s say, the teachers’ union and supporting that ballot measure, how do you run a campaign to basically say, “Vote for this one, don’t vote for these other ones”? Like, how do you go about doing that?
DAWN PENICH: Well, on the progressive side of the house, we’ve had lots of experience kind of saying like, OK, we got one or two, three through to the ballot. The Legislature put seven, eight, 11. So we have some experience saying “Yes on this one, no on everything else.”
And that’s kind of what the messaging will have to be to boil it down to the most simple version for the average voter. So it’ll be yes on Prop. whatever, no on everything else is the messaging that’ll come out.
MARK BRODIE: So you kind of do you kind of like leave the contents of the measures out and just say yes on this number, no on this number?
DAWN PENICH: Yes. You you go back to just relying on kind of your reputation, the values that people associate with your group. You know, if you see the teachers’ union saying no on everything else and you’re a pro-schools, a pro-teacher person, then rather than read the details of every single one of those measures, you’re just going to say, “I I trust the local teachers group.”
MARK BRODIE: OK. Interesting. All right, guys, we have about a minute left. I want to ask about a new poll that came out about the governor’s race, the GOP primary. It showed Andy Biggs is running away with it, 60%, about 10% for David Schweikert. Is this what you believe is going to be happening?
REGINA COBB: Absolutely. I thought this was going to happen a long time ago. I was wondering why Schweikert wanted to get into the race. When Karrin Taylor Robson was in there, I thought it was a more competitive race going on. But once Schweikert jumped in and Karrrin came out, I knew Andy was going to run with it.
MARK BRODIE: Dawn, is this what you kind of expected as well? Assuming that this is what happens.
DAWN PENICH: Yeah, absolutely.
MARK BRODIE: All right. Well, we’ll have to leave it there. Dawn Penich, Regina Cobb, thank you both for coming in. Thanks for the conversation.
DAWN PENICH: Thanks so much.
MARK BRODIE: That’s all for this week’s Friday NewsCap podcast. You can find the full Show podcast at podcast.kjzz.org. I'm Mark Brodie, thanks for listening.
