KJZZ’s Friday NewsCap revisits some of the biggest stories of the week from Arizona and beyond.
To talk about a flurry of court rulings on ballot measures, updates to the governor’s race and more, The Show sat down with Matthew Benson of the firm Veridus and former State House Minority Leader Reginald Bolding.
Transcript
ANNOUNCER: KJZZ’s original production, The Show, is supported by Banner Health, Arizona’s largest nonprofit healthcare system. Last year, Banner reinvested more than $1.1 billion in community health and charity care. Banner Health, nonprofit for Arizona. bannerhealth.com/nonprofitforaz.
MARK BRODIE: Hi, I’m Mark Brodie, and this is the Friday NewsCap podcast from KJZZ’s The Show. Each Friday, we review the biggest and most important political stories of the week with a panel of experts, which puts those stories into perspective to help us understand why they matter. Here's this week's episode.
MARISOL GARCIA: The court deemed it was unconstitutional. It was an attack on workers, Arizona workers who worked together to make sure they have safe working conditions, to make sure that they have adequate pay, healthcare and benefits.
SAM NEWTON: Arizona is the swing state in 2024 that Trump won by the most. Republicans start with a very significant voter registration advantage, and the race in 2022 was one of the closest ones in the entire country.
ANDY BIGGS: She had an uncontested primary, but she spent what, $7-7.5 million, somewhere in that neighborhood? It didn’t seem to move the needle for her.
ADRIAN FONTES: This close, less than 100 days from the election, this is a federal takeover of a constitutional duty that the states have, not the White House.
SINE KERR: I could not be more honored to stand with Andy Biggs. He’s a fighter who protects Arizona’s families, and together, we’ll make Arizona affordable again.
ROBBIE SHERWOOD: So if you wanted to feel like a celebrity for a moment, like a somebody, just walk into a Costco with Harry Mitchell someday. You’d be there for half the day, forget what you came for, just because he was just stopping and talking to people.
MARK BRODIE: Joining me to talk about a flurry of court rulings on ballot measures, updates to the governor’s race and more are Matthew Benson of the firm Veritas. Matthew, good morning.
MATTHEW BENSON: Good morning.
MARK BRODIE: And former State House Minority Leader Reginald Bolding. Reginald, good morning to you.
REGINALD BOLDING: Good morning.
MARK BRODIE: So Matt, let’s start with the big news from this morning. Andy Biggs, the Republican nominee for governor, has selected the first-ever lieutenant governor candidate, former State Sen. Sine Kerr. A good pick for him?
MATTHEW BENSON: Yeah, absolutely. Sine, West Valley dairy farmer, deep roots in agriculture, former legislator, as you mentioned, former member of the Trump administration under the USDA. Well liked, well respected around the State Capitol. I think this pick is getting a lot of good reception so far.
MARK BRODIE: Does it move the needle? Could any pick move the needle for this office?
MATTHEW BENSON: Solid pick. Does it change the race in a fundamental way? I don’t think so, and I’m not sure that any lieutenant governor pick could do that. That’s an awfully high bar. But it is a strong pick and a strong ticket going forward.
MARK BRODIE: So Reginald, you worked with Sen. Kerr when you were both in the Legislature. What are your thoughts on this pick?
REGINALD BOLDING: Yeah, I mean, I think that Andy Biggs selected someone who’s very well respected down at the Capitol, well respected throughout the state. My time serving with her, she was well respected down there.
I mean, I think that’s sort of like the cliché. There’s not too many things that people could say about her. I do believe that when you spend time in the Legislature, there are going to be votes that you’ve taken, there’s bills that you sponsored that I’m sure that the Hobbs campaign, they will attach to her, as they will with Biggs.
But ultimately, Andy Biggs is running for governor, and I believe that what you’ll see is messaging targeted toward him. I do think that she helps him at least probably shore up some folks who may consider not voting for him.
MARK BRODIE: Really? How so?
REGINALD BOLDING: I think that you may have some Republicans who are looking to see what decisions a Biggs administration would make. I mean, this is actually the first decision that he made was selecting someone who would be considered more — somewhat moderate.
I think still very conservative. There’s some bills around abortion that she sponsored that I think some women may not be accustomed to supporting her because of that, but I do think that he could have made other selections that could have been much more controversial. So I think he played it kind of safe.
MARK BRODIE: Matt, you said it’s a solid pick. Would you agree that it’s also kind of a safe pick?
MATTHEW BENSON: Yeah, I think it is the pick that people expected. And there were a few names that were out there under consideration, each of whom was a female. I think it was important that he balanced the ticket, soften the optics a bit running against Katie Hobbs.
Some of the attacks that people expect are going to be coming Andy Biggs’ way, this helps in that regard. But to Reginald’s point, people are voting for the governor. Regardless of who Katie Hobbs picks, I don’t think that selection is going to matter all that much either. It may make a difference on the margins, and if this ends up being a 1-point race, then maybe it has an impact.
MARK BRODIE: OK. So guys, let’s talk about some of the things that Arizonans may or may not be voting on in November. A number of court rulings on initiatives. Let’s start with the so-called “poison pill” measure.
This is the proposal that would protect vouchers for military families. It also included a provision that said, “If you pass this, voters, any other voucher initiative — including one that supporters of curbing vouchers hope to get on the ballot — will be null and void.”
Reginald, a judge this week said no, this violates the single-subject rule. This will be appealed, but what do you take from this initial ruling?
REGINALD BOLDING: Well, I think it’s important for viewers to understand the single-subject ruling. In its essence, it’s that if you’re asking voters to weigh in on a particular issue, they should have the ability to weigh in on that particular issue without including something that may be unrelated.
And what you saw with this ballot initiative was putting two different issues — one that people may be in support of and one that they may not — into one resolution. And that’s just something that you can’t do. So I think the court got it right.
I don’t think that this resolution should have even been part of this cycle. It clearly was retaliatory because you had a number of parents and teachers and community folks who said the school voucher system is draining our state budgets, and this was clearly retaliation.
MARK BRODIE: So Matt, with the stipulation that none of the three of us in this room are lawyers, and people have lost a lot of money trying to predict what courts will do — as I mentioned, this will be appealed — are both Republicans and Democrats at this moment sort of thinking back to the proposed deals, both at the end of the legislative session and the one that was floated as maybe a special session, now that we’re starting to see some of the rulings and the outcomes on some of these issues?
MATTHEW BENSON: Well, this is exactly the reason that there were a lot of Republicans and conservatives and ESA supporters who wanted to strike a deal that would have removed both of these ballot measures — the referendum and the initiative sought by the teachers union that is much more punishing toward the ESA program. That deal would have basically had everybody put down their arms, take those measures off the ballot and move forward with some modest guiderails for the ESA program in place.
But the deal fell apart, in large part due to opposition from Sen. Jake Hoffman (R-Queen Creek), Freedom Caucus folks, and then ultimately some far-left progressives also scuttled the deal. So it fell apart.
So if you’re a Republican or an ESA supporter, you now have the worst of all worlds. Looks like this ballot measure is going to be off the ballot, and the only thing on the ballot is going to be the teachers union measure, which is the one that ESA folks are really concerned about.
MARK BRODIE: Well, that, of course, supposes that the challenges to signatures are unsuccessful and it stays on the ballot, and that this one doesn’t win on appeal. Do you — again, none of us are lawyers — but there’s been so much discussion about what actually constitutes a single subject. You know, the supporters were making the argument, “Look, these are both dealing with vouchers. Why are we having a problem here?”
MATTHEW BENSON: Yeah. Look, we have this single-subject debate every year with ballot measures and what constitutes more than a single subject, and round and round we go. Frankly, I’m no attorney. I don’t know how the judges kind of slice and dice this, but this is the determination that they’ve made, that this violates single subject. And it’s also the reason that some other ballot measure got removed from the ballot.
MARK BRODIE: Yeah, let’s talk about that one. Reginald, this was a measure that was intended to go after teachers unions, but public safety, other public unions said, “Hey, this also probably implicates us as well” and really trying to curb what they can do and where they can do it, that kind of thing. A judge has also basically kicked that off the ballot, although as with the voucher one, there’s an appeal planned. Thoughts on this one?
REGINALD BOLDING: I mean, this has to probably be one of the biggest failures of House and Senate leadership at the state Legislature. In an effort to move retaliation, wrote a piece of legislation that folks let them know that if you’re writing language in which you’re naming public sector unions, you actually really need to spell out who you’re talking about, otherwise you’re looping in fire and police.
They were told that countless times, and what you saw was Sen. Warren Petersen stand up and say, “No, we got it right.” And I think this was a significant failure on their part. With that being said, I think that no matter if you support unions or not, we shouldn’t be targeting unions from a retaliation standpoint, and also this absolutely violated the single subject.
MARK BRODIE: Matt, there had been some talk of maybe trying to come back into special session to clarify that some of the public employee unions, the police and fire, were not involved in this. Would you assume that that offer is now off the table?
MATTHEW BENSON: I presume it’s off the table at this point. And it was political malpractice to have allowed this referendum to go forward in this means. Look, as Reginald said, the police and fire unions just went bananas after this went up, and highly critical of Republicans. I mean, there was talk of endorsements being pulled from Republican candidates and that sort of thing.
And why? I mean, it’s just a complete unforced error, and then of course now a court has stricken the whole thing, which honestly as a Republican is probably the best. This is the best result we could have had, because hopefully it’s off the ballot. Let us not speak of this again. I think it is interesting that there’s been no talk of appealing this decision. Republicans at this point I believe are happy to just let this go away.
MARK BRODIE: When you say let’s not speak of this again, does this become a campaign issue for Warren Petersen, Senate president who’s running for attorney general?
MATTHEW BENSON: I’m confident that Democrats will try to make it a campaign issue for him and others. The question is whether it’s still a salient point 90-some days from now.
MARK BRODIE: And if it’s not on the ballot.
MATTHEW BENSON: And if it’s not on the ballot, it may be moot at that point.
MARK BRODIE: Reginald, let me start with you. Gov. Hobbs says that she will not be debating Andy Biggs. We were talking about the governor’s race before the break. She says she will not debate Andy Biggs before the November election and says she’ll travel around the state and do events like that.
I guess to some extent maybe this isn’t a huge shock. She did not, of course, debate four years ago either in the primary or the general. Do you think this is the right move on her part?
REGINALD BOLDING: Well, when you look historically, you’ve had candidate debates everywhere from city council races to state Leg to governor’s office. So the public has become accustomed to seeing individuals who are running against each other in the same room, speaking to the same issues so you can compare and contrast.
I think now with social media, with the fact that these candidates have the ability to get their message out to voters almost immediately, you know where they stand on these different issues. So I think the need for a debate is not what it was 10, maybe 20 years ago.
Whether or not the governor should have debated, I think really is a call on her team and whether or not she believed that there would be some type of political stunt that could potentially call into question things that may not be true.
I mean, what we’ve seen in presidential debates is you can almost say anything and it may not be fact-checked, and it’s very hard to clean up a story after it’s already been told. So I think it’s the right call.
MARK BRODIE: Optically though, does this maybe become something that the Biggs campaign hits her for? I mean, obviously Kari Lake talked about it, “Why would you vote for her? She’s not willing to answer questions and be on a stage with me.” Does optically maybe this become a problem for her?
REGINALD BOLDING: I mean, I think it goes back to the saying, “If it’s not broke, don’t fix it,” right? I mean, that was the exact same argument that they made with Kari Lake, and it didn’t affect the outcome.
So I mean, I think for [Hobbs], she’s leading in the polls. You can look around the country. Candidates who are leading in the polls, they are very reluctant to debate. That’s just not a Katie Hobbs issue. That’s folks across the political spectrum. They’re not taking that risk and that chance if they don’t need to.
MARK BRODIE: Matt, is this a good call for the Hobbs campaign to not have her be on that stage?
MATTHEW BENSON: Well, that’s to be determined. I mean, I think it speaks to the confidence that they have at this point. They’re clearly looking at internal numbers that suggest that the risks outweigh the benefits of getting on a stage with him.
What surprises me, is this is still a state where there are 320,000 more registered Republicans than Democrats. This race is very much going to be competitive. This is a race that she won by 10,000 votes four years ago. And in a lot of ways, Andy Biggs is a stronger candidate, less baggage than Kari Lake.
So I think it’s interesting in that sense. I think it’s interesting that they’ve made this announcement now, when potentially depending on how this race trends as we get closer, they may decide at some point they need to get on a debate stage with him, and what does that look like? So I’m not sure why they felt the need to announce it now.
Just as a voter, taking off my political hat, I think it’s too bad. I think that there is something valuable to be gained from these debates. Yes, we know issue-wise where the candidates stand on these things, but there is still value in seeing them think on their feet, challenge one another. There are always unscripted moments that happen in these debates that can make a difference in these races and go viral. And we’re not going to have that, and I think that’s too bad.
REGINALD BOLDING: And one thing I will say, I do think that in American politics, too much has been placed on debates. Who makes decisions in a 5-second sound clip? That’s just not how the world works, right? I don’t want a leader who’s going to have to answer a question in 5 seconds, and I’m going to take whatever you say over that next 5 seconds and that’s going to be applied to state public policy. That’s just unrealistic.
I would prefer candidates having detailed plans on what they’re going to do regarding specific issues that they’ve vetted, that they’ve talked to experts on, that they have had opinions on, and quite frankly, I don’t know if a 15-second sound clip tells me what I need to know on public policy.
MARK BRODIE: You’re clearly not making voting decisions based on what you see on TikTok, then.
REGINALD BOLDING: No, I’m not.
MARK BRODIE: Reginald, let me quickly ask you before we move on. The Democratic Governors Association says that it’s going to spend $10 million as an initial investment, they said, in the Hobbs campaign. They, and the DGA is acknowledging, this is — to Matt’s point — there are many more Republican voters here than Democratic. It was a very, very close race four years ago.
How much might — I mean, any amount of money helps. $10 million is a pretty good amount of money.
REGINALD BOLDING: No, it’s significant, and I think Matt hit the nail on the head. This is going to still be a tight race, and I think that the sign that — they said this is their initial investment, which is leading and indicating that there may be additional resources to come.
The Hobbs campaign is already raising significant dollars. They didn’t have to spend any really in the primary. So I mean, it’s going to come down to the wire, and Arizona is really cementing itself as that battleground state. It’s going to be extremely important.
MARK BRODIE: Matt, the Biggs campaign is saying basically this is an acknowledgment by the Democratic Governors Association that Hobbs needs a lot of help, that she must be down or trailing in polls or having some issues, and they need to spend all this money. Do you buy that argument?
MATTHEW BENSON: I mean, they have to say that, but the fact is the RGA came in with a $10 million-plus investment in Doug Ducey when he was the incumbent. So both national parties are going to have to get behind each of these candidates in a significant way. And the thing to watch here is what does the RGA do?
MARK BRODIE: The Republican Governors Association.
MATTHEW BENSON: How much does the Republican Governors Association invest in Andy Biggs? Do they come out and say, “We’ll match that $10 (million). We’ll go $15 million”? Or do they come out and kind of, “$2 million, $3 million. Here’s something, and we’ll see how it goes”?
Because they’ve got a lot of competitive races in other states where they likely did not expect them, Iowa and elsewhere, and they’re going to have to get behind Andy Biggs significantly. He is not a big fundraiser. So if the RGA doesn’t kick in with at least $10 million, he’s going to have to find money elsewhere. Turning Point or elsewhere.
MARK BRODIE: Would you consider that a signal from the RGA if they don’t match or come close to what the Democrats gave to Hobbs?
MATTHEW BENSON: Yeah, absolutely. It would be a signal that they are supportive in this race, but not all-in.
MARK BRODIE: OK. Reginald, I want to ask you about the 1st Congressional District. This is Scottsdale, Fountain Hills, the seat that David Schweikert holds now that he left, of course, to run for governor. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee this week added Amish Shah to its Red to Blue program. That was the program that they had in the primary put Marlene Galán-Woods in, but Shah of course won that primary.
How awkward must that phone conversation have been between the DCCC and Shah saying, “Hey, we’d love to put you in this program. What do you think?”
REGINALD BOLDING: I mean, so I know Amish pretty well, and I can be assured that he was probably gloating and smiling from ear to ear in that conversation. I mean, I think that he’s a hard worker. He earned the respect of voters in that district, not only this cycle, but prior cycles before. I think that matters.
I think he’s in the best leveraged position right now as much as any other candidate in the Red to Blue program, which, you know, party leadership, they absolutely need him to win his race, and they were not with him from the beginning. So I think he has the ability to get a little bit more resources, a little bit more support because they’ll be trying to not only ensure that he wins, but also shore up his vote in the event that the Democrats take the U.S. House.
MARK BRODIE: So you think maybe he would get more resources from the DCCC now than he would had he been endorsed in the primary?
REGINALD BOLDING: I mean, look, CD1 is one of the most competitive races in the country, so resources were going to already come. But I absolutely believe he’s going to get much more resources now that there was a campaign against him, and I think it also sets himself up in the event that he wins this race to get pretty good committee assignments.
MARK BRODIE: Matt, I feel like I’ve been asking you to weigh into internal Democratic politics for most of the show. I apologize for that. But does this affect his campaign in any way, the fact that he was not the favorite of the party? I guess that could go either way for him, right?
MATTHEW BENSON: Yeah, it is interesting because multi-million dollars worth of ads have been run — that is my congressional district, and so all we’ve been seeing are ads for the last couple months saying that Amish Shah is a closet Republican, he’s conservative and all this stuff. So it is interesting. Some of the talk among Republicans is whether that now kind of helps with his conservative credentials —
MARK BRODIE: In a swing district.
MATTHEW BENSON: In a swing district that does lean Republican, whether that now helps him, to be determined. But 100% agree that the DCCC now has to go in doubly for him to mend those fences.
But I will mention the other candidate in this race, and it’s Jay Feely, a Republican, probably the strongest Republican that the party could have put up coming out of that primary. Well-funded, good name recognition, former Arizona Cardinal, etc., etc., and he will have all the resources he needs to be very competitive in that and keep that seat in Republican hands.
MARK BRODIE: Does this become a talking point? Is that something that someone like Jay Feely or his supporters would talk about to voters, the fact that Shah is somebody who the party folks didn’t want, or maybe to your point earlier, that is something they’d avoid talking about because it makes Shah look better?
MATTHEW BENSON: Well, it’s highly ironic because after the whole Democrat primary where they called Shah a closet Republican, now Republicans are calling Shah a Democratic socialist.
MARK BRODIE: So you’ve got to pick one here, right?
MATTHEW BENSON: Well, apparently not. Apparently he can be both.
MARK BRODIE: Reginald, would you expect this race, like resources not to be an issue for either candidate in this race?
REGINALD BOLDING: No, I mean, you’re going to see outside resources. The candidates are going to both raise good money, so it’s going to come down to the margins, and I think it’s going to be another tight one.
MARK BRODIE: Kind of like what we were talking about with the governor’s race. It could be — would you expect it to be like within a couple points, Matt, the final tally?
MATTHEW BENSON: Oh, absolutely.
MARK BRODIE: Would you agree with that, Reginald?
REGINALD BOLDING: Yeah, absolutely. Definitely.
MARK BRODIE: All right. Well, as Matt says, to be determined, right? We’ll find out in early November. Matthew Benson, Reginald Bolding, thanks to you both for the conversation. I really appreciate it.
MATTHEW BENSON: Thank you.
REGINALD BOLDING: Thank you.
MARK BRODIE: That’s all for this week’s Friday NewsCap podcast. You can find the full Show podcast at podcast.kjzz.org. I'm Mark Brodie, thanks for listening.
