KJZZ’s Friday NewsCap revisits some of the biggest stories of the week from Arizona and beyond.
To talk about more confusion related to mail-in voting, a handful of new polls in Arizona and more, The Show sat down with Marcus Dell’Artino of First Strategic and Jason Barraza of Veridus.
Transcript
ANNOUNCER: KJZZ’s original production, The Show, is supported by Banner Health, Arizona’s largest nonprofit healthcare system. Last year, Banner reinvested more than $1.1 billion in community health and charity care. Banner Health, nonprofit for Arizona. bannerhealth.com/nonprofitforaz.
MARK BRODIE: Hi, I’m Mark Brodie, and this is the Friday NewsCap podcast. Each week, we review the biggest stories week with experts, reporters and commentators to put the news in perspective.
Here’s this week’s episode:
KRIS MAYES: This effort by the United States Postal Service and the federal government right now is a naked attempt to inject chaos and doubt into our election system right before voting starts.
ANDY BIGGS: I was not surprised at all. I also was not surprised by the timing of it. So you have a Democrat AG investigating and then making a ruling for a Democrat governor.
KATIE HOBBS: He called for pardoning of the Jan. 6 defendants, and called them J6 political prisoners.
VERLON JOSE: Our Tohono O’odham police, our rangers, have been stopping contractors. If they didn’t have the necessary permits, they were letting them know, “You are trespassing. Please leave the Nation.”
ADELITA GRIJALVA: I believe ICE should be abolished. There is no reform for a system that is completely fundamentally corrupt. There is a failure, systemic failure, and it needs systemic change.
DANIEL BUTIEREZ: I believe if we want to make changes, we don’t go over and attack ICE, we don’t protest ICE. We go to Washington, and we rewrite the laws to improve it.
MARK BRODIE: And joining me to talk about more confusion related to mail-in voting, a handful of new polls in Arizona and more are Marcus Dell’Artino of First Strategic. Marcus, good morning.
MARCUS DELL’ARTINO: Good morning.
MARK BRODIE: And Jason Barraza of Veridus. Jason, good morning to you.
JASON BARRAZA: Good morning to you.
MARK BRODIE: So Jason, let me start with you. A lot of news coming about President Trump’s executive order, which, long story short, would in all likelihood result in fewer people being allowed to vote by mail. The Supreme Court issued what was described as a procedural ruling which kind of allowed the executive order to go forward. There’s another ruling, I think just this morning, blocking it at some point. Kris Mayes, Arizona’s attorney general, part of the effort, the lawsuit that resulted in this morning’s blocking.
Almost regardless of what actually happens, what do you think the impacts of all of this back and forth, all the discussion about whether we’ll be allowed to vote by mail will have in Arizona, where the vast majority of voters vote that way?
JASON BARRAZA: Vast majority vote that way. It’s a tool that we utilize here in this state and that’s utilized across the country to allow people to cast their vote, to have their voice be heard.
Is it going to have an impact? Well, we’re on again, we’re off again. We’re going to allow the Postal Service to exercise its will within our voting system, we’re not going to do that. It causes confusion amongst the voting population, amongst the various states that are going to have to abide by this.
So we’re not in the best situation for right now as far as having clarity about how our system is going to work.
MARK BRODIE: Marcus, is there a danger for President Trump in terms of Republican turnout when you’re — I mean, we saw what happened in 2020 when he encouraged people not to vote by mail. … I mean, both parties obviously would be affected, but is there maybe a particular problem for Republicans here?
MARCUS DELL’ARTINO: Yeah, I mean, I almost answered yes as soon as you said, “Marcus.” I am not on board with this strategy, and I’ll tell you, I’ve been doing campaigns in Arizona for close to 30 years, and I will tell you, Republicans have always dominated early voting, OK? They essentially invented the system back when Forbes was running in a presidential primary, if anybody remembers that, and were able to hone that skill to their benefit. And so from that standpoint alone, I think that it’s a bad idea to limit early voting.
However, if you want to take it one step further, for those folks that have somebody in assisted living centers, I would tell you that it is probably an 85–90% Republican base in an assisted living center, right? These folks are older, and those demographics tend to go Republican. I don’t think it’s a good idea to cut them out of being able to vote.
And you just expand out from there upon that older demographic. So to be honest with you, I just love sitting at my kitchen table and being able to go through the ballot book and read the ballot propositions and take my sweet time doing it. But we’ll have to see how this one rolls.
MARK BRODIE: The people who would be behind you in line also appreciate that, especially with the number of ballot measures we’ve had on the ballot the last number of years.
Jason, do you see this becoming a campaign issue? Like, do you see, for example, Democrats saying, “Hey, look, Republicans are trying to take away your right to vote by mail?”
JASON BARRAZA: It’s already a campaign issue. I think that the voting public has ranked the protection of our democracy pretty high on their interests across the board, and this is at the heart of it — exercising your right to vote.
We’ve got a system that, as Marcus pointed out, has been utilized by the Republican Party incredibly effectively, especially here in Arizona, and now you’re calling that into question. We’re going to be better served allowing people to exercise their voice and vote in our elections.
MARK BRODIE: Marcus, you were nodding your head as Jason said this would become an issue. You agree with that?
MARCUS DELL’ARTINO: I think it already has, yeah. Kris Mayes held a press conference, was that yesterday or the day before?
MARK BRODIE: I think it was yesterday.
MARCUS DELL’ARTINO: Yeah, about this issue, and I fully expect her to keep beating that drum and keep that message point alive.
MARK BRODIE: Is that an effective talking point, do you think?
MARCUS DELL’ARTINO: I think so. Look, you’re running for attorney general, for God’s sake, you’ve got plenty to talk about. Fentanyl, the list goes on and on and on.
But I think it will be one thing to, you know, voters are concerned about it. Will they have to go to their polling place? And they’ll have to go find their polling place, because it’s probably not where they think it is, instead of getting that ballot in the mail. It’s concerning to them.
MARK BRODIE: All right, so one of the things that Kris Mayes I’m assuming would rather not talk about on the campaign trail is her investigation into the governor and Sunshine Residential. This was an alleged pay-to-play scheme. We heard at the top of the show Andy Biggs saying he’s not surprised that this was the outcome. There is, of course, another investigation still ongoing with the Auditor General’s Office with the help of the Maricopa County Attorney.
Jason, do you see this as continuing to — I mean, obviously Andy Biggs is looking to make this a campaign issue. Is this one that you think will stick?
JASON BARRAZA: I don’t think it will stick, because you have to look at the historical context. If you’ve read the findings that Attorney General Mayes put forward, it makes perfect sense on her position on this. One, this practice has happened throughout our history. Previous administrations have been called into question, and the same result has occurred: that there was no finding of wrongdoing.
When you’re dealing with an individual’s freedom of speech, which is in this context materializes in a political contribution, people have the freedom to make those contributions. And as long as there isn’t that evidence of quit pro quo, meaning, “I’m going to do this if you give me that,” as long as there’s no evidence of that, there is no wrongdoing.
And the attorney general said — she’s interviewed tons of people, went through the records and found no evidence of any of that quid pro quo. But to your point, of course this is going to be a campaign issue. The other side desperately wants this to stick and to be a reason for voters not to support both the governor and probably Attorney General Mayes. So it’s going to be out there, it’s going to be talked about. I don’t think it’s going to be something that’s going to change people’s opinion.
MARK BRODIE: When you talk about the investigators interviewed lots and lots of people, notably, they did not have a chance to interview Gov. Hobbs herself. Is that a bad look for the governor, do you think?
JASON BARRAZA: Well, the governor provided her statements to that, so she was able to share her side of the story, and the attorney general took it for what it’s worth. Whether that was done in person or through a written communication, it’s the same answer.
MARK BRODIE: Marcus, do you see this becoming an effective messaging point for the Biggs campaign?
MARCUS DELL’ARTINO: I think it would. I mean, here’s the art of the deal, right? And this is going to sound terrible, but the facts don’t matter, right? It’s the allegation that matters.
And the allegation probably would work if there was some money behind it, right? It’s not enough to get a couple sentences in the newspaper and maybe a one-night, three-minute story. You’ve got to put an advertising campaign against that and message it.
And that is not happening. I’m not seeing a whole lot of Republican advertisements on TV, frankly anywhere. And so that is concerning for the whole Republican ticket at this point.
MARK BRODIE: Why do you think that is?
MARCUS DELL’ARTINO: I have always thought that Turning Point was going to ratchet up here early on, wanting to get these Republican candidates defined before the Democrats could define them, which has been the Democrats’ strategy for every successful Democratic campaign in Arizona for God knows how many years now.
So there’s no secret, right? But that money somehow has not materialized, and I am in the dark as to why.
MARK BRODIE: It is interesting, especially because the Republicans, at least running statewide, generally had competitive primaries, whereas the Democrats didn’t. So you would think if you’re trying to fund Republican candidates, like, there was some nastiness in some of those primary campaigns, none of it on the Democratic side because there were no primaries.
You’d think that as soon as you turn the page from the primary and work on the general, that’s the time to start doing that, right?
MARCUS DELL’ARTINO: Yeah, I think that the primaries did cause a lot more damage from a fundraising standpoint than people assumed. Republicans in the past have been successful when the field’s been cleared and they were saving all that money for the general election, and that wasn’t the case.
And also, it’s a defensive battlefield, right? The maps got a lot bigger for Republicans, and they got to defend in places that they haven’t had to traditionally defend in. And so the money gets a little more scarce, especially nationally.
MARK BRODIE: Well, assuming the money comes at some point, I mean, do you think this is the kind of issue that would animate voters to get to the polls? Like, alleged pay-to-play schemes, alleged quid pro quo, governor not sitting for an interview — is that the kind of thing, if there is money to advertise, do voters care?
MARCUS DELL’ARTINO: I don’t think it changes your mind whether you’re going to vote. In every poll we’ve seen, affordability is at the top of the ticket. That’s what’s motivating people to go to the polls, right? Inflation, the cost of beef, your grocery bill, your gas — that’s the true driver of what’s going to get people actually to vote. But would it make a difference to somebody who’s truly up in the air? There’s a possibility.
MARK BRODIE: Jason, I’m curious if you’re seeing the same thing in terms of advertising and the money coming in for Republican candidates versus Democratic candidates, and if so, to what you attribute it.
JASON BARRAZA: I think the Republican candidates are at an incredible point right now, because they just finished their primaries, and so they had one messaging that they needed to put forward there, and most of them are now trying to pivot so that they can be more in the center, which recent history has taught us that’s kind of the place you need to be if you’re going to be successful here in Arizona.
And I think that one of the issues that they’re having is, what is that messaging that they need to bring forward for the middle? We saw Congressman Biggs make a pretty quick shift where he was trying to be a more moderate candidate, speak a little bit off of what your traditional Turning Point talking points would be.
And so I don’t think that they’ve really defined or figured out what that message is that they can bring forward that’s going to be a winning message.
MARK BRODIE: Interesting.
MARCUS DELL’ARTINO: I’ll tell you this because it’s somewhat interesting. There was an Atlantic article that came out this week, and everybody knows that the Trump fundraising machine is insane. I mean, they’re sitting on $400 million. And what’s traditionally happened is the funders, the donors, instead of giving to the National Republican Senatorial Committee or RNC or their state party, whatever that is, it’s all going to the MAGA PAC. I think that’s the formal name, actually.
And so they’re sitting on $400 million, and the question is, sitting around the table, what are we going to do? Like, how do we help out Biggs in Arizona? How do we help out Juan Ciscomani? How do we help out?
And the solution here that they devised, since they think that this campaign is largely going to be about [Trump], is to run an ad that is about him. And so I expect at some point here in Arizona, we’re going to see a campaign ad basically talking about why you need to elect Republicans because of—he’s going to point out his successes in this ad. And I will tell you, it’s a different strategy than I thought was coming.
MARK BRODIE: Guys, a bevy of polls this week. Maybe that’s not the right word, I don’t know. But it seems like there were some differences in the numbers, but not so much in what the numbers were saying in terms of at least the snapshot in time, a couple months out, who’s leading. There was a poll from High Ground that found Gov. Hobbs leading Andy Biggs by 15 points. There’s a GOP internal poll from Grayhouse that found Gov. Hobbs leading Congressman Biggs by four points. They all found basically the Democrats leading, at least in the top three races: governor, secretary of state, attorney general.
Marcus, what do we make of these at this moment in time?
MARCUS DELL’ARTINO: You know what’s funny? There were so many polls done on this race that we literally stopped doing them. We were about to go out and do a poll and said, “Forget about it.”
MARK BRODIE: Too many others.
MARCUS DELL’ARTINO: There’s way too much, there’s too many out there. So we’re going to switch.
But anyway, there’s not one poll out there that says Andy Biggs is leading. There’s plenty of polls that say Andy Biggs is close. And so what that tells me is this race is going to come down to turnout. I don’t think anybody thinks it’s going to be a 15-point blowout. I think everybody thinks it will still be a relatively close race, and in relatively close races, turnout matters.
The danger with this many polls this early is that it starts to set this messaging point that Hobbs has won reelection, and that has a tendency to depress Republican voters who are wondering if their vote even makes a difference.
MARK BRODIE: And maybe Republican donors, too?
MARCUS DELL’ARTINO: True. “Save my money for something that might win.” And that is a legit part of strategy, right? And so the Democrats are capitalizing on that, and Republicans would have done so as well, is to keep this flurry of polls going that shows that she’s winning, so it depresses Republican turnout.
MARK BRODIE: Yeah Jason, I guess there’s maybe a danger on both sides, right? In terms of, if you’re consistently shown down, as Marcus said, it could depress turnout, enthusiasm, money. But I would imagine there’s a concern also if you’re the Democrats and you’re consistently shown up, maybe you take the foot off the gas a little bit.
JASON BARRAZA: I don’t think that that point’s going to hit for maybe another month. If we see another round of polls come out where you have the governor still leading and our other statewide candidates still leading, I think then what’s going to start creeping in is, are we going to get apathy on the Democratic side because they feel like they’ve already won this election, and then our voters are going to stay at home and not show up on Election Day?
So it plays both ways here in that, yes, you might have one side say, “Well, what’s the point of me showing up? I’ve already lost.” But the other side is saying, “Well, what’s the point of me showing up? I’ve already won.”
So the political parties and the campaigns need to keep their base active and excited and ready to get out there to vote on Election Day.
MARK BRODIE: Do you have a sense of — I mean, this is a pretty wide gap in terms of, yes, obviously Gov. Hobbs is ahead in all these polls, and there were some last week as well, but the margin is — there’s a pretty wide disparity. Do you have a sense of where this race actually is right now?
JASON BARRAZA: I think that what you can take from the polls is that currently right now, the Democrats and Hobbs specifically are leading. They’re in the lead. Exactly how big that is, is up for question.
And I think we’re seeing the disparity — and I know this is something, Marcus, that you know quite a bit about — but the pollsters right now are trying to figure out who the electorate is going to be, and I think that that’s what’s feeding into the differences that we’re seeing in these polls, because the different pollsters are predicting that the people that show up in November are going to have different demographics.
And so as they try to refine that and decide, “OK, this is what we’re predicting that voting base is going to look like in November,” then the polls will get more and more accurate. But right now we’re still trying to figure that out.
MARK BRODIE: Marcus, do you buy into that?
MARCUS DELL’ARTINO: Yeah, absolutely. I mean, that’s definitely — there’s a couple things that account for the differences in the polling, but the major one is your turnout model, meaning who’s showing up. And so as you can imagine, if you are guessing that independents are showing up at a higher number than another pollster, that probably benefits Hobbs, because in all the crosstabs, it shows that she’s winning independents.
So it’s little things like that that can make vast differences. But again, the art of being a pollster isn’t writing questions, the art of being a pollster is picking what the turnout model is going to be.
MARK BRODIE: One more quick question on the governor’s race polls. Significant that the governor, while she is leading, is not over 50%?
MARCUS DELL’ARTINO: You know, I think it shows a possibility. What I’m finding most interesting — and it’s repetitive from four years ago — but is what I call Republican guilt. And so you’ve got whoever those voters are that are Republicans that are voting for Hobbs instead of Biggs might get two races down, maybe three races. But if you’re paying attention, I mean, Kimberly Yee is actually winning in some of these polls in that superintendent race.
MARK BRODIE: Right. And she won four years ago, too.
MARCUS DELL’ARTINO: Right. So it shows that these Republicans do have a tendency to come back home, and then what’s that mean for downballot once you get to your state legislative races? And I think Democrats are not taking their foot off the gas. I think they did years ago, but I think that they know they want to win this Legislature, and so they’re trying to keep their foot on the gas, and Republicans need to keep the Republicans coming home.
MARK BRODIE: So Marcus, one other thing that these polls found, the Noble Predictive Insights poll looked at President Trump’s approval rating. To the point you were making earlier about maybe we’re going to start seeing some ads making this race about him. This poll found that Trump’s approval rating in Arizona, 39%, the lowest that that poll has ever found. Does that bring that strategy into question?
MARCUS DELL’ARTINO: I mean, for the optimistic side of that argument, what I would say is they are right. The White House is right that ultimately this will be largely about him and his policies. And I think it is somewhat of a valid argument to say, “If it’s about me, then why don’t I go out and talk about my good accomplishments and try and set the record straight?” True.
The downside of that is, of course, you’re reinforcing negative. And it also may not be the message point that is specific to that district or that state. And so that gets interesting. I’d also add that when Biden got tossed out, he was at about 11 points under, and that was what’s considered sort of a watershed moment. And so the danger here is looking at those numbers, is are we looking at potentially the reverse?
MARK BRODIE: Jason, if you’re a Democratic candidate, are you hoping that the White House will tie Republican candidates to President Trump?
JASON BARRAZA: Absolutely. I think that that’s the biggest strategy that the Democrats have right now, is to tie every candidate that they’re facing — no matter what level we’re talking about, what race we’re talking about — is to tie that candidate to Trump, because we’re kind of, in some ways, returning to normalcy in a midterm election where we’re now judging the White House, right? What has the White House done since their election, and is that going to create a backlash to that same party’s candidates downballot?
And I think we’re starting to see that happen. Trump has been incredibly skillful at kind of avoiding or rewriting how elections play out, but I think that we’re coming back home to, yeah, the midterm people are looking at what the White House has done, what the president has done, and they’re going to hold him accountable, and that’s going to do nothing but benefit Democrats.
MARK BRODIE: I mean, it’s kind of to your point, the midterms traditionally have sort of been a referendum on the current administration, maybe the current Congress. And in past years it’s maybe been a little bit less of that, but you’re saying it’s sort of reverting back to that.
JASON BARRAZA: I think Democrats are certainly hoping that we’re going to come back to that, because that’s just been the playbook, right? You knew that you were going to have a little bit of suppression if you had the White House, and hopefully that’s what plays out.
MARK BRODIE: Marcus, the Republican Attorneys General Association is putting Arizona in among 13 states where they’ll spend $7 million among those to boost Republican AG candidates. I guess maybe to the point you were making earlier about where’s some of the Republican money coming from, I would imagine this is at least somewhat good news for Warren Petersen.
MARCUS DELL’ARTINO: Oh, absolutely. It’s great news for Warren Petersen. You know, he needs to get up on air, he needs to define himself. He was able to do that during the primary, so he has that advantage.
But last night, I will tell you, I saw my first attack ad on Warren Petersen from the Kris Mayes campaign, and it wasn’t on regular cable, it was like over the top. But it was an attack. And so Petersen needs to get up on air and define the message here quick, and I think this money helps.
The missing part of this is, now that the Republican Governors Association has done this, is the DGA going to come in?
MARK BRODIE: The Republican Attorneys General Association, yeah. The polls have generally shown the current attorney general, Kris Mayes, leading although the GOP internal one, it was a one-point lead for Mayes over Petersen.
So I guess that’s the question, right? Does the Democratic counterpart to the Republican Attorneys General Association also come in with some money here?
JASON BARRAZA: Certainly I would imagine that Mayes campaign is hoping that that’s the case. If you look at the bigger picture, the attorney general won her seat by literally a handful of votes.
MARK BRODIE: Fewer than 300.
JASON BARRAZA: So this race should be on everyone’s targets on both sides of the aisle, as either defending or trying to get this seat.
So as a candidate, any money’s good money. You’ve got to think President Petersen’s campaign is liking the attention that they’re getting nationally. I’ve got to think that the DAGA, the Democratic Attorneys General Association, is going to be there for Mayes as they evaluate their races across the country as well.
MARCUS DELL’ARTINO: What’s interesting about the AG’s race as opposed to these other races is — and this is a little inside baseball — but Republicans probably pick up like three points just because it’s a law and order position. Boots and hats, sheriffs, badges. You know, that favors a Republican message. And so Republicans got to make the most out of that 3% that they can at this point.
MARK BRODIE: Yeah, interesting. All right, we’ll have to leave it there, guys. Marcus Dell’Artino, Jason Barraza, thanks to you both for the conversation. I really appreciate it.
MARCUS DELL’ARTINO: Thank you.
JASON BARRAZA: Thank you.
MARK BRODIE: You’ve been listening to the Friday NewsCap from KJZZ’s The Show. It’s an original podcast recapping the week's biggest stories with experts, commentators and reporters. You can get the full Show podcast at podcast.kjzz.org. I'm Mark Brodie, thanks for listening.
