KJZZ’s Friday NewsCap revisits some of the biggest stories of the week from Arizona and beyond.
To talk about the findings about how many noncitizens actually cast ballots in Arizona elections, a contentious debate between candidates for Secretary of State and more, The Show sat down with Jaime Molera of the firm Molera Alvarez and former Congressional staffer Roy Herrera.
Transcript
ANNOUNCER: KJZZ’s original production The Show is supported by Banner Health, Arizona’s largest nonprofit healthcare system. Last year, Banner reinvested more than $1.1 billion in community health and charity care. Banner Health, nonprofit for Arizona. bannerhealth.com/nonprofitforaz.
MARK BRODIE: Hi, I’m Mark Brodie, and this is the Friday NewsCap podcast. Each week, we review the biggest stories week with experts, reporters and commentators to put the news in perspective.
Here’s this week’s episode:
RACHEL MITCHELL: All eight of the noncitizen voters are in the U.S. legally. Most have lived in the U.S. for decades. One person has been here more than 72 years.
ALEXANDER KOLODIN: We’re going to have election results on election night. That’s what I’m going to deliver for Arizona voters.
ADRIAN FONTES: We know, because he’s already said, he would let the Trump administration do whatever they want and establish whatever rules they wanted.
GREG BLACKIE: With this measure, they would provide some sort of identification, whether that is writing four digits on the envelope where they currently sign, and then covering it with a privacy flap, or who knows?
RANDY KEATING: The fact of the matter is Arizona’s elections are safe, secure, and accurate, and there’s no reason to amend the Constitution based on, “Hey, we’ll fix it later.”
DAVID GOWAN: We always talk about not having enough housing in this state. Yet, we’re going to take a plot of land that’s perfect for housing, right next to our city, out for 30 years.
MARK KELLY: Donald Trump obviously likes to surround himself with billionaires. I mean, that’s what that group is: a lot of AI executives and just tech executives who are going to benefit from this technology, probably more than anybody else.
MARK BRODIE: And with me to talk about the findings about how many noncitizens actually cast ballots in Arizona elections, a contentious debate between candidates for secretary of state, and more, are Jaime Molera of the firm Molera Alvarez. Jaime, good morning.
JAIME MOLERA: Good morning.
MARK BRODIE: And former congressional staffer Roy Herrera. Roy, good morning to you.
ROY HERRERA: Good morning. Happy Friday.
MARK BRODIE: Happy Friday to both of you. So, Jaime, let me start with you on County Attorney Rachel Mitchell found that eight non-citizen voters out of 60 that were referred to her by the recorder, Justin Heap, from this SAVE database had cast ballots — noncitizens, but not people who were in the country illegally — and basically said there’s no widespread fraud here. So is this, like, is it fair to say that this has been much ado about nothing?
JAIME MOLERA: Well, I think it has, candidly. I think a lot of the insinuations that there was some problems with the election processes, that there might be some fraud that was taking place in certain areas, was fairly widespread in the Legislature over the last, as we know, over the last several years.
So when you finally got down to it, and they looked at the actual data — and the data, the database that was actually the federal database that was used — it comes out to these eight people.
And even our County Attorney Rachel Mitchell, who has a really stellar reputation, made it very clear that she didn’t believe that there was fraud necessarily. There were certain glitches in the law that allowed this to happen. But when you look at the number of people that have voted over the last decade and it comes down to eight people, I just think that shows that there’s really much ado about nothing.
MARK BRODIE: Well, so, Roy, I mean one of the other things that County Attorney Mitchell said was, yes, this did not affect the results of any elections, she didn’t think. But every vote that is cast by somebody who shouldn’t cast a vote dilutes the vote of somebody who is legally entitled to cast a vote. Is there an argument to be made that there maybe are some things that need to be tightened up here?
ROY HERRERA: I mean, there’s definitely an argument to be made that noncitizens shouldn’t be voting. And that’s why we have laws, and have had laws, in Arizona that prohibit that, right? And nationally as well.
But I think the findings from the county attorney is a very good data point to Jaime’s point, that I totally agree with, which is to say that these allegations of widespread fraud on the basis that there are lots of noncitizens voting is completely false. And those allegations have been made by President Trump and a lot of his acolytes for years now. And again, we see the reality here, which is that it’s not actually an issue.
And I think one of the things that concerns me is really about this federal database, because this is how we got, you know, the original list of names that the county attorney was able to investigate. This SAVE database is something that President Trump has been pushing, you know, since he got into his second term. It’s something that the Supreme Court is now allowing to go forward, at least for now, to be used.
And when you look at that, and you say, OK, well, out of the, you know, 60 people that the SAVE database flagged as potentially non-citizen voters, only eight are actually noncitizens. I mean, that’s not a great rate of validation.
MARK BRODIE: The rest are, in fact, citizens and eligible to vote.
ROY HERRERA: Exactly. And so my concern is — and we’re lucky that we had the county attorney and the resources to actually investigate the flags that the SAVE database gave us—my fear is that in other jurisdictions that use the SAVE database in order to check their voter roll accuracy, that that kind of error rate is going to exist, and they’re not going to do the follow-up. And that’s going to result in people being disenfranchised.
MARK BRODIE: Yeah. Jaime, is this a concern, especially given the U.S. Supreme Court’s ruling just from like a week or so ago that, you know, districts, counties, states, cities can use this SAVE database to try to flag folks who maybe shouldn’t be voting?
JAIME MOLERA: Well, the thing for me, Mark, that really is disconcerting, as a Republican that was a part of administrations that really wanted to get more people to vote — we pushed the notion of mail-in ballots, allowing for voting centers to occur, making it easier for the public that might not have as easy a time to go vote on Election Day — that we created a process that we had more people be engaged.
And the Republicans have been fighting that over the last several years, which is very, as I said, disconcerting, because it goes against what a lot of us wanted to see happen. And we think it has made the Republican Party stronger in Arizona by getting more people engaged in this process. And to create these structures that we’re saying that there’s fraud, and there’s things in place that are going to push people away from voting, is just antithetical to what I think a lot of us have been fighting for over these last several decades.
MARK BRODIE: Roy, safe to say — and especially given the debate between the two candidates for secretary of state — that these findings by Rachel Mitchell will not end the debate over whether or not there is fraud, whether or not there are lots and lots and lots of people who shouldn’t be voting who are actually voting?
ROY HERRERA: It won’t end the debate. You know, again, because I go back to the fact that the president, you know, every day continues to make these claims about how, you know, mail-in voting, for example, can lead to voter fraud. Again, you know, there’s no factual basis for that allegation, but the president does that. A lot of sort of the MAGA-type folks agree with him.
And I think we’re going to have a ballot referral, you know, that’s going to go to the Arizona voters this year related to voter fraud that could lead to, if it passes, elimination of mail-in ballots, or at the very least, making it much more difficult for people to vote. So it’s safe to say that the debate is going to continue, and it certainly did in that lively secretary of state debate.
MARK BRODIE: OK, so, Roy, let me stay with you. You used the word “lively.” I used the word “contentious.” What do you think is maybe the best adjective used to describe that interaction?
ROY HERRERA: I mean, contentious is pretty good. I sort of watched it and started thinking about if they had to settle things outside, who would win that fight? Because it seemed like it got personal like that. You know, the irony is —
MARK BRODIE: Well, Fontes did say to Kolodin, if you call me, what, the drug cartel lawyer again, we’re going to have a personal problem.
ROY HERRERA: Exactly. And a fun story about that is that when Secretary Fontes was a federal public defender in defending folks, which is I think what Mr. Kolodin was referring to, I was a federal prosecutor, and I was against him in a lot of these cases.
And Adrian Fontes was a very good defense lawyer. And his role back then, by the way, was just upholding the Constitution and people’s right to counsel. So it’s kind of sad that that was being criticized by Mr. Kolodin.
But again, clearly they do not like each other, and they got personal. But again, the debate really, I think, centered a lot around this ballot referral, which I think is a good discussion.
MARK BRODIE: This is the Prop. 144, which Kolodin sponsored in the Legislature, which is, I think, a page in terms of like how long the measure was in the Legislature. But, Jaime, to Roy’s point, a lot of folks are saying this could really put a dent in the ability of Arizonans to vote by mail.
JAIME MOLERA: Correct. And one of the things that I think is problematic for the Republicans this year is that by allowing these types of legislation to move through — in this case, this was a referral; it didn’t have to go to the governor, and that’s why there was no veto on it — it created this backlash, I think, for a lot of these candidates that are now trying to hold on. The Republicans are doing everything they can to keep the House of Representatives, to keep the State Senate. But it’s these types of things that have really put a big X on a lot of these candidates, and that’s why they’re being targeted.
MARK BRODIE: Self-inflicted wounds, you think?
JAIME MOLERA: Absolutely. And so rather than a lot of these caucuses saying to Mr. Kolodin, “You know what? This legislation is not going to help us at the end of the day. It’s actually going to hurt us,” they let these things through. Now all of a sudden it’s being used against them in these campaigns. And there’s a very real possibility that the Legislature could flip. And I think a lot of this was self-inflicted because they didn’t have that kind of discipline that they needed.
MARK BRODIE: What do you make, Jaime, of the debate between Kolodin and Fontes?
JAIME MOLERA: I would say snake pit. That’s a better analogy. And it was really, unfortunately, it wasn’t based on any kind of real policies. It was more personal. But that’s what it’s devolved into.
Again, Mr. Kolodin is coming up with a lot of accusations that I’m not sure has a lot of merit. And by and large, I think the secretary of state has shown himself to be somebody that has worked with the Republican Legislature. So it’s interesting to see how this devolved.
MARK BRODIE: So quickly before we go to break Fontes, of the top three Democrats who won four years ago, Fontes won by the biggest margin, which maybe isn’t saying a whole lot. But do you see, Roy, like do you see comparisons between four years ago in his race versus this year? Do you see him, like how do you see his position in this race relative to Mr. Kolodin?
ROY HERRERA: I mean, I think he’s the clear favorite at this point for reelection. But I also think some of that is because he’s done a good job as the secretary of state. Some of that is because the overall political environment I think is not good for Republicans.
And I think all three, both Gov. Hobbs, Attorney General Mayes, and Secretary of State Fontes, are the clear favorites at this point, with ballots dropping next week, very soon. So I think that’s where they’re at at this point.
MARK BRODIE: Jaime, what do you think?
JAIME MOLERA: Well, a lot of it are the candidates, too. I mean, he won last time around by a large margin because he ran against Mark Finchem, who’s a current state senator. But Finchem was part of that group of Republicans that were saying that there was all kinds of widespread fraud and there’s manipulation of the elections. And so there was no credibility.
Kolodin is kind of coming from that same standpoint. And when you don’t have a lot of credibility, especially when you’re running for these statewide offices, then it’s going to show up in the polls. And that’s, unfortunately, that’s what’s happening, is that quality of candidate is not the candidate that I think Republicans would want to rally around.
MARK BRODIE: Roy, let me start with you. The Cook Political Report, a national prognostication service, I guess is maybe one of the ways to put it, had news about two Arizona congressional races, maybe the two swingiest districts in the state, two that a lot of folks are saying could help determine who controls the U.S. House come January.
They listed CD6, which is in Southern Arizona. That’s the district currently represented by Juan Ciscomani. They’ve rated that as a toss-up. And CD1 — which is currently David Schweikert’s district, but he, of course, is leaving Congress — as a lean Democratic. Any surprise to in either of these?
ROY HERRERA: No surprise at all. And in full disclosure, I’m working for the (JoAnna) Mendoza campaign down in —
MARK BRODIE: Who’s running against Ciscomani.
ROY HERRERA: Exactly. But no surprise at all. Again, we kind of referred to this in the last segment a little bit, which is that the political environment for Republicans is just really, really bad. I mean, President Trump has the worst approval ratings of any president in modern history, even worse than Biden, even worse than his first term. And I think that’s had an effect.
And in the last few weeks, I think we’ve seen significant shifts to Democrats in polling at the congressional level and the statewide level. So, I’m not surprised that there’s been a shift.
And I do think there is something about candidate quality to be said, like Jaime referred to earlier. I do think the Democrats have put up two high-quality congressional candidates in those two districts. And those two districts, by the way, in the last few election cycles were always very close. I mean, some of the closest districts that we’ve had in the country. So in this environment with the wind at our backs, at the Democrats’ backs, it’s no surprise that they’re the favorites.
MARK BRODIE: Jaime, let me ask you about specifically CD1, because for several cycles now, Democrats have been hopeful/optimistic that they could defeat David Schweikert. He always won.
Is it different now? Obviously, the conventional wisdom is it’s easier to win an open seat than beat an incumbent. But given everything Roy’s talking about, given the fact that there is no incumbent, does CD1 seem like a reasonable pick-up chance for Democrats?
JAIME MOLERA: Oh, absolutely it is. Absolutely. But I would disagree a little bit with my colleague here talking about quality of candidates. I think the Republicans have very good quality candidates for both of those races.
MARK BRODIE: Jay Feely in CD1 and Juan Ciscomani in CD6.
JAIME MOLERA: Correct. I think those are the best candidates that they can have in a bad election cycle. And let’s be clear, this is a very bad election cycle for Republicans. I liken it to what happened in 2006 when there was a massive blue wave across the country. The difference was that Arizona had Senator, John Kyl, that lifted the Republicans, and there really isn’t that kind of anchor —
MARK BRODIE: A top of the ticket kind of candidate.
JAIME MOLERA: That can help stabilize the Republican tickets. But Feely and Ciscomani are very quality. I think it’s going to be still a toss-up. I think it can go either way, and I know they’re going to be campaigning till the bitter end. So it’s going to be very, very tight.
MARK BRODIE: When you talk about Feely being maybe the best candidate Republicans could have asked for in this cycle, how much of that comes down to the fact that pretty much — I’m not saying everybody, because not everybody’s a football fan, of course — but he’s got pretty good name ID?
JAIME MOLERA: Sure. And he was somebody that’s been around the community. Now, one of the things that’s hurting him candidly, if you look at the attack ads against him, it has nothing about his policies, nothing about what he stands for, really, except that he stands with Donald Trump. I mean, those are the things that they’re just going after him and pounding him, that he’s a Donald Trump-supported candidate, and that’s it.
And they’re trying to rely on the backlash to what’s happening nationally that could hurt him. And I think what Feely’s trying to do between now and the final votes that are given on Election Day is trying to distance himself and trying to show that he’s going to be his own man in Congress.
MARK BRODIE: So, Roy, I know that — I’m guessing that if I asked which of these districts do you think Democrats have a best chance of winning, you would say both. But if you had to take off your working for Mendoza campaign hat for just a moment if you can, do you think that one of those Democrats maybe have a better chance than the other? If Democrats were to win one of those races, is there one that to you just sort of based on the fundamentals, based on the environment, based on the candidates that you think maybe they have a better chance in?
ROY HERRERA: Well, I would just go back to how I kind of referred to earlier, how close these elections have been in prior election cycles. And CD6 is the one down in Tucson that has been closer. And so, I would point to that first as far as when the pendulum swings, that would be the first one.
But my answer is going to be ultimately that both of them are in good shape. And to Jaime’s point, I don’t disagree necessarily that Feely and Ciscomani were the best candidates that the Republicans could put up. But the attacks that are being made against Feely, for example, on doing what Trump wants are effective because they’re true. I mean, he has been a Trump supporter for his entire, as far as he’s been sort of in public life. And he’s been very clear about that.
And it’s only until recently, in recent weeks, where he’s scrubbed his website of Trump references, started to distance himself, all of that stuff. He didn’t do that before. And the only reason he did that now is because Trump’s approval ratings are so bad. So it’s hard to run away from that at this point when it’s something that the Trump policies have been something that Feely has embraced for a very long time.
MARK BRODIE: Jaime, you talked just a few minutes ago about how Democrats might win control of one of the chambers of the Legislature. Do you think they have a legit chance to win both of these congressional districts, too?
JAIME MOLERA: Absolutely they have a legit chance. I think that’s why I say both of them, in my opinion, are toss-ups. And I think it’s going to be incumbent upon Ciscomani and Feely to be very aggressive in getting — well, there’s two things that need to happen. They need to make sure Republicans get out to vote. And that’s one of the issues right now, is that there’s a lot of lack of enthusiasm amongst Republicans. Now Republicans enjoy a pretty hefty registration advantage in Arizona.
MARK BRODIE: Yeah, a couple hundred thousand voters.
JAIME MOLERA: Maybe not so much in these particular districts, but they still enjoy an advantage. It’s getting them out to vote. And making them understand why it’s so significant that if you do not come out to vote for me in their arguments, that you’re going to go in a different direction that’s not what these congressional districts want to see happen, which is much more progressive, much more in line with the social Democratic cause. Those are the kinds of things that they need to make that case for.
MARK BRODIE: All right, guys. This week, Arizona universities got a little more than $16 million in leftover COVID relief money. I didn’t realize there was still COVID relief money hanging around from a few years ago. Gov. Hobbs sent that money to the three public universities basically saying to offset cuts that they took in the state budget. Jaime, I assume the universities are thrilled about this. Obviously, there’s going to be some criticism that, “Hey, by the way, ballots are going out next week, and now the universities are getting $16.5 million.”
JAIME MOLERA: Well, it’s interesting that this wasn’t brought up, that there was extra COVID money during the budget process. Some people would be a little bit skeptical as to why this was done, and certainly I am, because I think it was a very strong political maneuver by the governor.
Because if you look at where these dollars could have had a, in my opinion, a much bigger impact, there’s a lot of, for instance, developmental disabilities issues that we have huge funding gaps for. A lot of it was because we instituted COVID policies that helped push up those prices.
Well, you would argue that some of those families are not as maybe politically active as maybe folks that are tied to the universities are. So you can see why Republicans are being critical, because they’re saying, “Well, of course, this was a strong political maneuver.” And by the way, you could have brought this up when we were doing the budget process, so we could have mitigated those dollars against all these other kinds of budget priorities that they just ignored.
MARK BRODIE: Roy, what do you think? Political move?
ROY HERRERA: It may be, and I think it’s a smart one if it is. You know, it’s unfortunate that the cut — it was a 2.5% cut in the state budget for universities — happened in the first place. That’s really unfortunate. And I do think with these COVID relief funds, like you, I didn’t know we still had any. But there’s going to have to be questions answered about where the money was allocated before, right? I mean, it obviously got moved.
But I think the larger point is that education funding, whether it be K-12 or university funding, long-term funding, permanent funding is still going to be a major topic, and I think it’s going to be a major topic next legislative session, particularly if what I think happens and the Democrats take either tie or take control of the Legislature, if that happens, because I think there’s going to be an appetite to spend more on education here. And the question’s going to be like, “OK, well, how do we do that?” So, that’ll be the future debate.
MARK BRODIE: All right. Quickly before we wrap up, Roy, does this affect the governor’s race one way or the other? Help the governor, hurt the governor, no effect?
ROY HERRERA: I mean, I think it helps the governor, but I also think we’re at a point now where — you know, there was a reference to John Kyl being at the top of the ticket in 2006. That’s right, and he won, right?
We’re in a completely different environment now, where I think the governor’s race has really gotten away from the Republicans, is my personal view. I don’t think Biggs has been a strong candidate, and I think the governor may win by a lot at this point. And so anything related to this university funding wouldn’t have made a difference anyways, because she’s that far ahead.
MARK BRODIE: Do you think it matters, Jaime, in the governor’s race?
JAIME MOLERA: I don’t think it matters. I disagree that this thing is over. I think there’s a chance. I think there’s an opportunity for a comeback.
ROY HERRERA: So you’re saying theres a chance.
JAIME MOLERA: There’s an opportunity. And because Andy Biggs is not an insignificant candidate. He’s very smart, he’s got a long track record, he was a strong Senate president. So, I think there’s still a month to go.
MARK BRODIE: The only poll that really matters is the one on Election Day, right?
JAIME MOLERA: Exactly.
ROY HERRERA: That’s true.
MARK BRODIE: All right. Jaime Molera, Roy Herrera, thanks to you both for the conversation. I appreciate it.
ROY HERRERA: Thank you.
MARK BRODIE: You’ve been listening to the Friday NewsCap from KJZZ’s The Show. It’s an original podcast recapping the week's biggest stories with experts, commentators and reporters. You can get the full Show podcast at podcast.kjzz.org. I'm Mark Brodie, thanks for listening.
