The vast majority of Arizona’s 30 legislative districts are considered non-competitive, meaning just a handful of races this November will determine which party controls the Arizona House and Senate next year.
In the inaugural edition of the Arizona Election Draft, KJZZ politics correspondents Wayne Schutsky and Camryn Sanchez take turns "drafting" their most compelling races in the upcoming general election.
They talk with Politics Desk editor Ben Giles about the candidates and what makes the districts truly competitive.
Transcript
BEN GILES: Hello, and welcome to Prickly, a podcast from KJZZ's politics desk.
WAYNE SCHUTSKY: Thank you for listening. I'm Wayne Schutsky.
CAMRYN SANCHEZ: I'm Camryn Sanchez.
BEN GILES: And I'm political editor Ben Giles. Arizona's primary elections wrapped up last week. We're still waiting for official results to be finalized, but with unofficial results in from all of Arizona's 15 counties, we have a pretty good idea about who's advancing to November, the general election.
With that in mind, we wanted to tackle the handful of truly competitive legislative races — those races that will determine which party controls the state Legislature, the Arizona House of Representatives and the state Senate in 2027. It's pretty evenly divided now as it has been for years, but Dems for, gosh, at least the last 13 years I've been in Arizona, they've been unable to wrest control or even win a tie in either the upper or lower chamber.
So, with a nod to the NPR Politics Podcast and the wide, wide world of sports, we're introducing the Arizona Election Draft. Wayne and Camryn are going to take turns drafting — I'm using air quotes here — the races they find most compelling. Let's get started with pick number one from our very own Camryn Sanchez.
CAMRYN SANCHEZ: I'm starting off with Legislative District 4, and that area covers parts of Scottsdale and Phoenix, Paradise Valley. It's represented right now by an all-Republican delegation, but they have elected multiple Democrats there in the past, and as recently as 2022. So, it's competitive definitely in both chambers.
And right now for the House side, we've got incumbents Matt Gress and Pamela Carter. Um, they're going against Democrats Karen Gresham and Tammy Caputi. Karen Gresham ran last time, so she's coming in for a rematch, and Tammy Caputi's a first-time candidate. And these Democrats are still strong candidates. Caputi is somewhat of a moderate, she's a pro-business Democrat, and she's shown that she has the ability to do some good fundraising, but also lost reelection to the Scottsdale City Council during backlash against pro-development council members. And then Gresham is a Madison Elementary school board member, she's got a common path to the legislature there — a lot of them are coming from school boards — and Gress is also a former member of that school board.
So, we could see this being a split. We could see incumbents giving Gress an edge, and, you know, he has a lot of name ID, he's got a higher profile at the legislature. On the Senate side of things, we've got an incumbent Carine Werner, who's going against Democrat Aaron Lieberman. So, Werner has been known for tackling these child welfare issues at the Capitol and going after sober living fraud—although there's been some controversy over whether she's too aggressive or misleading with that effort. And then Lieberman is already a former lawmaker who won in a very similar district before he left to run for governor in 2022, unsuccessfully.
BEN GILES: So Camryn, what is it exactly about this district, you know, that right now has a Republican sweep of all three seats at the legislature, that makes you think or makes you consider that, okay, Democrats have had some success here in the past. What kind of Democrats have had success?
CAMRYN SANCHEZ: I'd say more moderate Democrats. We're talking about a district that's almost exactly perfectly 33% independent. So, we've got voters there who are lowercase "i" independent who could be either left-leaning or right-leaning, and that really makes the difference in all of these competitive races that we're going to talk about. So, there is a chance for a Democrat who can prove that they can probably work across the aisle, who's not coming across as too progressive or, you know, too subversion for an area like this where we've got people who don't really want the more extreme end of things.
BEN GILES: Okay. With Legislative District 4 off the table, we're moving on to Wayne for pick number two. Wayne, which district do you think is going to be competitive?
WAYNE SCHUTSKY: Well, I could go out to the East Valley, but I think I'm actually going to stick in the same general area as Camryn and go with LD2. This district is just west of LD4 and covers a lot of the North-Central/Northwest Phoenix area. Right now, they're represented by Republican Shawnna Bolick in the Senate, and in the House, there is a split with Democrat Stephanie Simacek and Republican Justin Wilmeth representing the district. All three are seeking reelection in this district, and due to some candidate withdrawals late in the game, it kind of looked like this might just be Democrats and Republicans ceding one seat each in the House—you know, it was just going to be a straight-up rematch between Wilmeth and Simacek, no other challengers on the table.
But Republican write-in Paul Carver looks like he staged a successful write-in campaign in the primary, which would put him on the ballot, which would give Republicans two options, Democrats one. That would look a lot like last time when Democrats ran what we call a single-shot campaign. That's where they only run one candidate for two seats, without getting into the math too much, that usually increases the statistical chance that they'll win one of those seats.
BEN GILES: Wayne, again without getting into things too statistically, what is the message to Democratic voters and I guess independent voters in LD2 when there is one Democrat running for two seats? Like, how does a single-shot candidate work at the ballot?
WAYNE SCHUTSKY: The message to those voters is please just vote for the one. That's where the statistics come into this, because if you're, you know, voting for two and splitting the vote, then maybe some voters are voting for one of the Democratic candidates, some are voting for the other. But when you just have all Democrats lining up behind this one candidate, again, in a district that is only 27% Democrat, it's going to increase that statistical chance that they get elected, as long as they can pull over some of those independents who are the largest voter block in this district.
BEN GILES: And so, what Wayne is referring to here is, on your ballot, you'll see as many as four candidates for two seats in the House of Representatives. The instruction then is just to vote for one and leave the other option blank?
WAYNE SCHUTSKY: Essentially coming from the Democratic side, yes, that would be it. Now, whether voters actually follow that direction, I think the hardcore Democrats who are, you know, getting those voter guides from their local Democratic Party will follow through with that. And if you couple all of those one-shot votes with then some of those crossover Republican or independent votes, the hope is that that gives them enough of an edge to secure a seat in a district where, you know, Republicans hold a fairly significant voter registration advantage over Democrats, but again, more than a third of the electorate is independent voters.
BEN GILES: Very interesting strategy that I think we'll probably see in a couple of districts.
WAYNE SCHUTSKY: That's right. And then on the Senate side, I find that one a little bit more compelling. Again, we have incumbent Shawnna Bolick, who's a long-time lawmaker. She's married to Supreme Court Justice Clint Bolick. Very conservative, but she has moderated on some issues recently as she's running in this competitive district. I'm thinking her vote to repeal that territorial-era abortion ban in Arizona a few years ago. And she's running against newcomer Amelia Gallitano. Not a politician previously, but she does have a pretty impressive resume: she's a psychiatrist and neuroscientist, a professor who helped establish the U of A Medical School in downtown Phoenix. She's one of these candidates, I believe, that Democrats tried to recruit to run in a competitive district. And of note, her campaign manager is Jeannie Lunn, who actually ran Secretary of State Adrian Fontes's campaign last time. So you can kind of tell Democrats are serious about this one.
BEN GILES: Yeah, some winning staffers on that campaign. Okay, so far we've got two Phoenix-area districts off the table. Camryn, where is our next competitive district? Is it still in the Valley?
CAMRYN SANCHEZ: It's in the Valley, but I'm going to take us down to the East Valley, and we're going to talk about Chandler. So, this is District 13, and it's possibly, I think, my favorite for this particular year because we're doing a whole Chandler shuffle. Right now, that district is represented in the legislature by three Republicans, but it is definitely considered competitive. And we've got some incumbents going out and new people coming in.
In the Senate, we've got Representative Julie Willoughby leaving the House side, coming over, trying to get to the Senate to replace outgoing Senator J.D. Mesnard, who is leaving the legislature for the first time in many years. Willoughby is somewhat of a strong candidate, she's obviously won this district before, and she in the past has crossed the aisle, she's made some votes that could appeal to independent voters. In that district, she's running against Democrat Kristie O'Brien, who is a native of the area and an attorney. She's also the former vice chair of the Arizona Democratic Party and lost a Democratic primary in a similar district years ago, back in 2014.
And then on the House side, we actually don't have any incumbents running. On the GOP side, we've got former Chandler Mayor Kevin Hartke and Janet Weninger. So, Janet Weninger is looking to replace her husband Jeff Weninger, who is a state lawmaker now. And Kevin Hartke obviously has giant name ID in Chandler because he's been the mayor for a very long time. Jeff Weninger ran for Mayor of Chandler to try to do a switcheroo, but lost, so he won't be.
And then the Democrats on the House side, we've got Raquel Armstrong and Jacob Weinberg. So, these are both newcomers. Armstrong is a professor at ASU and a former teacher and administrator there. Weinberg is a combat veteran in the Arizona Army National Guard and an accountant. So, definitely a district to watch.
BEN GILES: What has been changing about Chandler in the East Valley that gives Democrats hope of, you know, picking up any of these seats?
CAMRYN SANCHEZ: Well, it's ours now, but it was a split district until recently, until 2024. Jennifer Pawlik, who is a Democrat, was a representative there, so it's not like it's been red all this time or, you know, there's a glimmer of hope for Democrats for sure.
BEN GILES: Interesting. Okay, Wayne, what is your next pick?
WAYNE SCHUTSKY: Well, not to continue copying Camryn, but I'm going to stick in the East Valley. I'm going to go with LD9. This is a West Mesa district where Republicans hold a slight voter registration advantage, but both Democrats and Republicans are outnumbered by those mysterious lowercase "i" independent voters that we keep talking about, who make up about 37% of the electorate.
So, kind of the flip side of the district Camryn was talking about, right now this district is represented by an all-Democratic delegation, but they're now running some untested candidates this time around. So, only Representative Lorena Austin has actually won a race in this district. You know, some of those untested candidates are Senator Kiana Sears—you know, she's the incumbent, but she was actually selected to replace outgoing Senator Eva Burch when she resigned from the legislature, so she's never actually won a legislative race in this district. She's running against Republican Bridget Fitzgibbons. She's a Scottsdale naturopath, you know, her website has a pretty standard platform of pro-public safety, border security, educational freedom, that kind of stuff, but we don't know a lot about her as a newcomer candidate. She is endorsed by Representative Selina Bliss, and also former Phoenix Councilman Sal DiCiccio, who's a pretty conservative, pretty far-right guy, so that kind of gives you an idea of where her politics lie.
On the House side, we have Democrat Lorena Austin, who I mentioned, who has won election twice now in this district. She's got a lot of deep roots there. Her father was actually a very well-known civil rights attorney, community leader who was known as "Mr. Mesa." So if I had to bank on anyone, I would probably say she has a pretty safe shot at reelection. She's running alongside newcomer Jacob Martinez, another Democrat. He's a Navy veteran, a lifelong Mesa resident, he's served on some local boards and stuff there, but no elected office. He also works on the board with Save Our Schools, which is one of these pro-public education organizations that's been pushing for a lot of school voucher reforms.
On the Republican side, we talked about that single-shot strategy earlier, well Republicans are running a single-shot in this district. His name's Bradley Bettencourt, and again, not a lot of info on him because he's a relatively new candidate, we haven't seen much campaigning yet. But I will say that, you know, he will likely trail in fundraising compared to the Austin/Martinez slate because Austin in the past has shown to be a pretty good fundraiser as far as legislative candidates go.
BEN GILES: So Wayne, this sounds like a district where Republicans are actually hoping they can pick up a seat. How do the Democrats feel about—I guess they're not defending since some of these candidates aren't incumbents—but how do Democrats feel about their chances of preserving their, you know, three-seat majority in this district?
WAYNE SCHUTSKY: I think Democrats are pretty confident. Again, it's all Democratic representation right now, and this West Mesa district is an area that has been blue for a while and continues to get more so. Now, it's not a majority Democratic district because it does hit some other parts of the East Valley, but it is a majority independent district. And as we've mentioned, those independent voters, lowercase "i" independent voters, don't fall neatly into one side or the other, any sort of middle-of-the-road category. Sometimes a lot of times they tend to identify with the party they used to be a member of. And I don't have any data to back this up, but my suspicion would be that a lot of these independent voters are probably Democratic-leaning based on previous election results we've seen in the area.
BEN GILES: Gotcha. Okay, so let's call that the end of the first round of our Arizona Election Draft. We still have a few more legislative districts to go, but these are districts that, for reasons Wayne and Camryn will get into, aren't quite as competitive as the first four districts we've talked about. So Camryn, without further ado, kick off round two.
CAMRYN SANCHEZ: I get the first pick again! I'm taking Legislative District 23. This is a weirdly shaped district, it goes all the way from the West Valley down to Yuma. And Democrats there do hold a slight voter registration advantage over Republicans, but independents actually make up more than 40% of voters there. So, this is an area that has tended to go Democratic, but has definitely elected Republicans in the past.
On the Senate side, we have an incumbent, which is Senator Brian Fernandez, and he has probably got this in the bag because he's been there for a long time, he's a moderate Democrat, he's got deep roots in this district, his mother Charlene Fernandez also used to represent it, and he's very well-funded. But he will be facing Michelle Altherr, she's a Republican and a veteran. She's a local Republican activist and she lost to Fernandez in 2024, but by a pretty substantial margin, about eight points.
So, the House side I think is the one that we're maybe a little bit more curious about. The Republican incumbent is Michele Pena and the Democratic incumbent is Mariana Sandoval, so they are both running for reelection. And Pena is running on a ticket with Gary Garcia Snyder, who's a perennial GOP candidate. He's run in a few different districts and he lost the Republican primary in a West Valley district in 2024, then lost to Fernandez in 2022. Sandoval is running with Emilia Cortez. She's a Democrat and a Yuma native who is currently working in economic development with the Cocopah Indian Tribe.
BEN GILES: So a tricky district here where most voters, or the largest block of voters, are those lowercase "i" independents. Camryn, is this a district that Democrats think that they could push to, you know, pick up a seat in the House?
CAMRYN SANCHEZ: Yes, but I don't think it's the most likely to flip. I think this is a district where voters are willing to show up at the ballot box and vote for a Democrat and a Republican at the same time for different races. They're willing to split their ballots.
BEN GILES: Why do you think that is?
CAMRYN SANCHEZ: I think it's because maybe there are some, you know, different priorities for people who are in that district, which is so long but incorporates a lot of rural area. I think that they're interested in candidates who are going to, you know, go after affordability and environmental and agricultural issues, and I think some of those things can sort of weave in and out of party lines.
BEN GILES: Okay. Wayne, your first pick of round two. What's your next semi-competitive district to watch?
WAYNE SCHUTSKY: Well, I'm going to go with Legislative District 17. This is another large district that covers a lot of the suburbs outside of Tucson. Republicans actually hold a pretty large advantage over Democrats here, but again, about a third of those voters are those independents we keep talking about.
This is a district that hasn't been viewed as super competitive until Republicans picked a slate of far-right candidates aligned with Turning Point and the legislature's Freedom Caucus a few years ago. That gave Democrat Kevin Volk an opening to swipe one of the district's House seats in 2024 when he defeated Cory McGarr, who was very closely aligned with those far-right groups. Volk won as one of those single-shot candidates in 2024, but Dems aren't playing it safe this time and hope that a blue wave might actually give them a win with both seats.
So he's running alongside Holly Lyon, a retired Air Force colonel. She's worked in the Pentagon, so she has one of those resumes that might resonate with independent and maybe even kind of conservative-leaning voters in the district. They're running against Rachel Keshel, that incumbent who is part of the far-right Freedom Caucus, you know, she's closely tied with Turning Point and those groups. And her running mate is John Winchester. He's a native Tucsonan, currently does government relations for ASU—which maybe will lose him some votes in the Tucson area—but he's a newcomer, not much is known about him or where he lands on the political spectrum, but it is worth noting he is not endorsed by Turning Point, unlike Keshel.
BEN GILES: You know, you talked about Turning Point as sort of a—apologies for this pun—a turning point for that district, that their endorsements of some far-right candidates has actually been a negative in this swing district. Does that mean that someone like Rachel Keshel is at risk of losing reelection?
WAYNE SCHUTSKY: I think history shows it could hurt her chances a bit. You know, last time around, she was running alongside Cory McGarr, they were both kind of in the same vein, and Volk kind of slid right in the middle, and Keshel won reelection and Volk was elected, McGarr was booted. Now that Keshel's running alongside this more what potentially could be perceived as a more moderate Republican, you know, that could definitely hurt her chances. Now, she does have much better name recognition, so that's an advantage she will have over Winchester.
But again, yeah, I think it could hurt her chances. I mean, look no further than the Senate primary in this race, where the Turning Point candidate actually lost. Now, that doesn't mean that the Republican who came out of that race is a moderate. In that case, we have Christopher King, he's an Air Force veteran and member of the Vail Unified School Board district who actually signed on to the so-called Kraken lawsuit in Arizona back in 2020. Now, for anyone who managed to forget what that is, that is one of those lawsuits challenging the results of the presidential election that year based on the false claims that voter fraud somehow influenced the results. He's running against Democrat John McLean, very long-time Pima Community College vice president and also a Marine Corps veteran. Again, another Democrat who could potentially appeal to moderates, independents, and across the aisle.
BEN GILES: Okay, Camryn. There is only one district left on our list of even semi-competitive races in the general election. You got us started, we're going to let you finish it as well—special privileges for Camryn here, sorry Wayne. Camryn, what's left?
CAMRYN SANCHEZ: What's left is LD16. So, this is a district which includes a lot of the growing suburbs in Pinal County, and registration numbers show that it should be very competitive, but Republicans do hold all three of those seats. And the district's Senate seat is held by a long-time lawmaker, T.J. Shope, which, of all the competitive races here, might be the most secure in his favor. He's won by really large margins over the last several cycles, even in a year where Democrats did manage to get a House seat. So, Democrats, you know, they've had trouble getting a foothold.
I think on the House side, we've got Republicans Teresa Martinez and Chris Lopez, those are both incumbents seeking reelection. They're on a ticket with Shope. They're very conservative candidates, they're not moderates and they're not aligned with the Freedom Caucus, but they are all endorsed by Turning Point's political arm. Those Republicans are facing a single-shot Democrat, that's Julia Ramirez Gusse, she's an Air Force veteran and a former Maricopa County council member—this district actually touches on three counties. And she does strike the profile of someone who could potentially win a seat, you know, she's known locally, although she is running at a disadvantage of not being an incumbent and not having as much name ID as perhaps some of the others.
On the Senate side, you know, as I said, Shope kind of might have this seat locked down, he's been there for a very long time. He is going against a Democrat, though. It's Elaine Aldretti, she is a local Democratic official and a community activist, and she works with some non-profits there. So, we'll have to wait and see.
BEN GILES: Yeah, we'll see how Democrats fare in a midterm election when typically — we see this at the congressional level — whoever is in the White House, in this case President Trump, the Republican Party is expected to face some losses. We'll see if some of those losses trickle down to legislative races here in Arizona.
And we'll call that a wrap on our first-ever Arizona Election Draft: The Legislative Edition. We hope that it helps you make your down-ballot decisions in the upcoming general election when voting begins in October. And of course, we will continue to hear more coverage from Wayne and Camryn in a lot of these key legislative districts in the next three months.
CAMRYN SANCHEZ: Thank you for listening to this episode of the Prickly podcast from KJZZ's politics desk. Tune in to 91.5 to hear our coverage, or log on to kjzz.org.
WAYNE SCHUTSKY: And please subscribe to the Prickly podcast wherever you get your podcasts.
