Arizona could pick up congressional seat after 2030 census if population trends continue

While 2030 is still a bit away, new data from a political consulting firm show Arizona is on its way to picking up a 10th congressional seat after the next Census Bureau count.

This means in the 2032 general election, Arizona will move up from 11 electoral votes to 12.

Kimball Brace is president of Election Data Services. The group projects Arizona’s population will surpass 8.1 million people at the turn of the next decade.

"We do know that people tend to move to where they become familiar and are comfortable with where they're going to," Brace said.

The latest census numbers from this year report Arizona’s population is just over 7.5 million people.

It's not just that Arizona is growing. Most states are.

But it is that Arizona is growing faster than most of the others.

What makes Arizona's projected faster-than-average growth so important on the national political landscape is that redistricting is a zero-sum game: There are just 435 seats in the U.S. House. And that means the states that grow slower have to give up a seat -- sometimes more than one -- to those where people are more likely to move.

So if Arizona is going to get a seat, it will come from one of five states that Kimball Brace, the president of Election Data Services, predicts will be losers: Oregon, Minnesota, Illinois, New York and California, the last one projected to shed two seats.

But it's not just Arizona that's going to get one of those six seats.

Idaho also is expected to gain a seat, bringing its House representation up to three.

The big winners, however, are Texas, which will have 40 seats in the House once two more are added; and Florida, also gaining two, bringing its House membership up to 30.

Still, even with its population lagging, California will continue to be dominant: Even with losing two seats, it is projected to still have 50 members in the House.