Study: Arizona SNAP recipients dropped 47% since Big Beautiful Bill, more than any other state

A higher percentage of Arizonans have been knocked off food stamps since Congress approved HR 1 than any other state in the nation, according to a new study.

The report by the Center for Budget and Policy Priorities says participation in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program dropped by 2.5 million nationwide since the federal law and its new requirements were enacted in July and December. That translates to about 6% using figures from the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

The same USDA data shows a 32% drop in Arizona of the program that provides food benefits, which averages $312 per month per household and $520 for households with children.

The study says more recent figures from the Arizona Department of Economic Security show a 47% decrease — a reduction of more than 400,000, including 180,000 children. Arizona had fewer than 490,000 SNAP recipients as of February.

Less clear is the "why'' behind all of that.

Gubernatorial press aide Christian Slater said some of it is due to the requirements of HR 1. Dubbed the "Big Beautiful Bill'' by President Donald Trump, it contained a number of changes to the SNAP program, like expanding work requirements to cover able-bodied single adults up to age 65. It also included shifting more of the costs of administering the program to states.

But that's not all. It also says that states that do not get their error rates down below 6% will end up having to pick up anywhere up to 15% of the actual cost of the benefits, which until now have been fully paid by Washington.

Arizona in the 2023-2024 budget year had an 8.8% error rate, but it was projected to be 10.4% for the last fiscal year. A report by the state Office of Strategic Planning and Budgeting, an arm of Gov. Katie Hobbs, pointed out that is still below the national average of 10.9%.

The report said if that error rate remains at 8.8%, the state could have to cover $195.4 million in the 2027-2028 fiscal year. And if the error rate hits 10%, that figure could reach nearly $300 million.

None of these penalties are unique to Arizona.

But Slater said what happened here, and at least part of the reason for the sharp decline in recipients, is complicated by the fact there are fewer workers to process applications.

Even before HR 1, about 500 workers at the state Department of Economic Security – about 5% of the workforce – were laid off in the summer of 2025, a move the state blamed on other federal budget cuts. That came at the expense of eligibility workers, with DES saying the number of workers who reviewed food stamps eligibility dropped by 1,370 in July 2024 to 880 this past July.

An agency spokesman said it was processing an estimated 54,000 new and renewal SNAP applications, of which 18,000 were taking more than 30 days.

And that gets to the other half of the problem. Slater said that Arizona, aware of the penalties for not getting its error rate down, was proactive in doing the greater checks to ensure that only those eligible under the new HR 1 rules are getting the aid. But with fewer staff, that resulted in some applications and renewals being delayed or denied outright when people could not provide the required information, with people dropping off the rolls.

In December, Hobbs responded by earmarking $7.5 million in unused federal COVID dollars to address what she called "staffing constraints'' at DES. That included hiring temporary workers to expand the agency's capacity to verify applicants' income.

But even with all that, the data the new report cites from DES shows a continued, sharp decline in food stamp recipients, down from 598,852 in December to 485,460 in February.

And there's something else. Slater said that other states, for whatever reason, may not have yet made the same changes as Arizona in screening to reduce their error rates. And he predicted that the decline in the number of food stamp recipients that is showing up now in Arizona is just a precursor to what will be reflected in data from other states in coming months.

That's also the assessment of DES spokesman Brett Bezio.

"It is important to note that we believe most of the impact of the changes from HR 1 has been realized, and we will begin to see consistency in the SNAP caseload in the months ahead,'' he said. "As other states fully implement the provisions of HR 1 and Arizona stabilizes, we expect differences in caseload decline between other states to more closely align.”

Bezio also said that Hobbs has requested an additional $48.4 million for the agency for the coming budget year, including 146 new employees. He said that should cut delays, as well as help ensure the state gets below the error rate at which point there would be penalties.

There is, of course, a political angle to all of this.

Slater said what is happening in Arizona – and what he believes will soon occur in other states – is precisely what was intended by the Trump administration.

Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins, in announcing a 3.3 million reduction in SNAP recipients, called in "a signal that the federal government is once again working for the American public.''

But it's not just the president. Slater noted that every Republican in Arizona’s congressional delegation voted for HR 1, including the food stamp provisions.

Republican Congressman David Schweikert, however, had his own take on the sudden drop in SNAP recipients.

"States were incentivized to reduce errors and manage benefits efficiently,'' Schweikert said of HR 1. But he said that 10.4% error rate in the most recent fiscal year meant that Arizona had to do a lot more culling of ineligible recipients.

"Arizona's outsize reductions is a clear outlier, demonstrating the management failures of this governor,'' said Schweikert, who is hoping to oust Hobbs in November.

He also pointed out something that even DES has acknowledged: its use until recently of 1980s technology. And while it is being replaced, there have been problems with the new system.

"After seeing billions of taxpayer dollars go to fraudsters through our state's Medicaid program, Arizonans have been clear that they want substantive reforms targeting waste, fraud, and abuse in all government programs,'' said Drew Sexton, who is running the gubernatorial campaign for Congressman Andy Biggs, the other Republican running against Hobbs.

Sexton said Biggs wants to create prosperity and economic growth "where every Arizona family can become self-sufficient, while Katie Hobbs wants more people dependent on state government."

Arizona Democratic Congresswoman Adelita Grijalva, however, had her own take on how the new report shows the effect on her home state of HR 1.

"When Republicans said they are going after 'waste, fraud, and abuse,' let's remember what that really means: children going hungry and families being pushed further into financial crisis,'' Grijalva said in a prepared statement. "It's time to reverse these devastating cuts to food assistance and healthcare, and finally focus on lowering costs.''

There appears to be nothing to show that Arizona, before HR 1, had a higher percentage of its residents on food stamps than the rest of the nation.

In a separate report, the Center for Budget and Policy Priorities says that the number of Arizonans on food stamps -- estimated at 923,400 in the last budget year -- amounted to 12% of the state population. That is in line with national figures showing a 12% participation rate in the program.

It also finds that 68% of SNAP participants are in families with children, compared with 62% nationally. And 40% are in working families, versus 38% for the country as a whole.