Poll: Hobbs leading Biggs by 15 points in Arizona governor's race

In a new poll, Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs holds a double-digit lead over Republican Congressman Andy Biggs about six weeks before voting begins in Arizona’s gubernatorial election.

The poll by Phoenix-based Highground Inc. shows Hobbs leading Biggs 49.5% to 34.3%. Another 12.7% of respondents were undecided or refused to answer the question and about 3.5% chose No Labels Party candidate Teri Ann Hourihan, Green Party nominee Risa Lombardo or some other candidate.

Pollster Paul Bentz said Hobbs has largely consolidated the Democratic vote, with 93% choosing the governor in the poll.

Meanwhile, only 70% of Republican respondents picked Biggs, with nearly 12% crossing the aisle to pick Hobbs.

In recent elections, around 10% of the Republican electorate in Arizona has crossed over.

“MAGA candidates tend to lose a portion of the Republican base typically in the past, but they usually are able to make up for it among independent and unaffiliated voters,” Bentz said.

But, according to the poll, Hobbs is also leading Biggs among those independents, who don’t identify with a major political party. About 50% of those respondents chose Hobbs versus 29.2% who chose Biggs.

“She's got about a 30-point advantage among independents, so Biggs can't really afford to lose both a portion of his Republican base as well as this sizable amount of independents,” Bentz said.

Bentz said Hobbs is also performing well with other demographics that traditionally skew Republican, including men and older voters.

The poll showed Hobbs leading Biggs with male voters 41.7% to 40.1%.

The governor also held a small 2.6-point advantage with voters over 65.

Biggs is one of President Donald Trump’s closest allies in Congress, and Bentz attributed Hobbs' advantage to dissatisfaction with the president and concerns over affordability.

“And, quite frankly, the fact that Hobbs has been up on the airwaves framing Biggs in a pretty sizable way without a lot of response from the Biggs camp,” Bentz said.

Ultimately, Bentz believes some of those Republican crossover voters will come back to Biggs and the race will tighten ahead of the Nov. 3 election.

“I don't think it's going to end up at 15 points,” Bentz said. “I think Biggs has work to do to strengthen his Republican base and get those voters to come back to him and vote for him, and ultimately, a large portion of them will.”

But, Bentz added, Biggs needs to bring those Republican voters back into the fold while also trying to appeal to those independent voters who are currently shifting towards Hobbs.

“So he's going to have struggles trying to message to two very different audiences at the same time,” he said.

The poll surveyed 400 likely voters and has a ±4.9% margin of error. The respondent pool was 40% Republican, 32% Democrat, 22% independent and 6% had other affiliations.