Arizona independents expected to have influential sway in the November midterms

Independent voters are expected to be an influential wildcard in the November midterms.

More than 900,000 registered voters in Maricopa County have no party affiliation, a larger group than either Democrats or Republicans.

Thom Reilly is co-director of the Center for an Independent and Sustainable Democracy at ASU and has published multiple studies on the growth of independent voters. He says this election will be defined by young non-partisans.

“Going into this next election, if you don’t have the independent vote, I don’t know how you win in many of the races in Arizona," Reilly said. "And then I think that is also the case for many nationally.”

Reilly has been researching the growth of independent voters since 2022. His research shows 49% of Gen Z voters defined themselves as independent in the 2024 election.

Rejection of party affiliation has trended upwards in recent years. Disillusionment with the two-party system is now commonplace not just in Arizona, but also nationwide.

“We’re seeing larger numbers of independents and unaffiliated. And as they age, they don’t seem to be joining a party. And I think that has very significant ramifications to our electoral system,” Reilly said.

Arizona's penchant for operating across or beyond the two-party system is nothing new.

"Arizona is very interesting because we've always kind of had this independent streak," Reilly said. "Y'know, the McCain influence — who would buck his party — Kyrsten Sinema — who would buck her party. So we've had this kind of independence that has been a tradition in Arizona."

More candidates are appealing to this bloc of unaffiliated voters, including Sen. Mark Kelly's previous senate campaign.

Reilly said, "I looked at Kelly's last Senate campaign, he never said he was a Democrat much. He just kind of appealed to 'I'm an Arizonan.'"

Heading into the November midterms, predictions for how independents will vote are difficult to model, though there are some potential predictors.

Historically, the party of the sitting president usually incurs losses in Congress during the midterms. Affordability and the economy also remains a top issue among independents, according to Reilly.