The official start of the monsoon is almost here, and climate prediction models show a powerful El Niño event developing in the Pacific Ocean could bring some much-needed moisture to the Southwest.
But Arizona may still have a few months to wait before that rain arrives.
The "super El Niño" is expected to have an impact on weather patterns across the U.S. this summer.
But with past El Niños, Arizona has tended to see drier conditions in July, said Michael Crimmins, professor and Climate Science Extension specialist with the University of Arizona’s Department of Soil, Water and Environmental Science.
In fact, the last time there was a strong El Niño in 2023, Phoenix had its hottest July ever and its driest monsoon ever, Crimmins said.
Crimmins said if wetter weather is coming, it likely won’t be until later in the summer.
“For us in Arizona, I think it will be August into September before we get any interesting weather,” Crimmins said.
Arizona's monsoon season officially begins June 15 and lasts through the end of September.
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