Thanksgiving in Phoenix is much hotter than it used to be. In fact, the climate research group Climate Central reports November temperatures in the Valley have risen faster than just about anywhere else in the country.
Climate Central analyzed more than 50 years of temperature data from more than 240 U.S. cities. Since 1970 in most of the cities, November temperatures have warmed about 2.4 degrees.
“Phoenix is double that, in terms of the average,” said Climate Central meteorologist Shel Winkley.
November temperatures have spiked 6 degrees since 1970 in Phoenix, the second-biggest increase in temperatures among cities analyzed. Tucson tied for second place, also seeing a 6 degree increase. El Paso, Texas, ranked first with a November temperature increase of 6.4 degrees.
For most of the U.S., winter is the season that is warming fastest, according to Climate Central. But in much of the Southwest, the biggest temperature shift has been in the fall, because summers have become so extreme that heat is lingering into the next season, Winkely said.
“Summer is basically just taking over the calendar there in the Southwest,” Winkley said. “You experience the worst of the heat in the summer, but then you’re left experiencing much warmer than average temperatures once you get into the fall.”
According to Climate Central, a prolonged heat season exacerbates drought conditions, raises chances for wildfires, impacts crop production, and can increase heat-related public health risks.
This November is on-track to be in the top-three warmest on record in Phoenix. And September, October and November of this year are on-track to be the sixth-warmest fall season ever recorded in Phoenix.
The hottest fall seasons on record in Phoenix were the last two — 2024 and 2023. The average temperature from September through November 2024 in Phoenix was 81.1 degrees. In 2023, the average was 80.8. This year’s average will likely be about 79.6.
For comparison, the average temperature in Phoenix during the fall of 1970 was 70.9 degrees.
“This is not just a one-off, it's a trend that we’re seeing more and more as the years stack up,” Winkley said.
Winkely said human-caused climate change is the main driver of Phoenix’s quickly rising fall temperatures.
“The urban heat island impact and the weather impacts — those are really much smaller in terms of the added warmth compared to what we’re adding by pumping heat-trapping pollution into the atmosphere,” Winkley said.
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