'Super El Niño' could bring heavy monsoon rain. What does that mean for Arizona wildfire risk?

The National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration is forecasting above-normal rainfall for this year’s monsoon, which typically runs from June 15 through Sept. 30.

That could spell relief for metro Phoenix, which experienced its wettest fall on record in 2025 — when 6.31 inches of rain fell — followed by an exceptionally hot and dry winter and spring.

Higher rainfall meant more vegetation, while the dry winter and spring primed that vegetation for greater risk of ignition. With the exception of southern and southeastern Arizona, all state trust and federal lands are currently under some form of fire restrictions. 

But NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is projecting a super El Niño climate pattern forming in the Pacific, which could draw some much-needed moisture to Arizona later this summer.

“A lot of that moisture from those tropical cyclones that develop off of the eastern tropical Pacific may move into our neck of the woods, especially as we head towards the latter end of the monsoon season, so from, you know, August and September timeframe,” says Gabriel Lojero, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Phoenix.

Lojero says the risk of wildfire ignition from dry thunderstorms is more likely through June and July. But come August, moisture flow from the Gulf of California could help put an end to the fire season.

El Niño-powered monsoon storms may also provide temporary relief from back-to-back years of extreme heat.

“So a more active monsoon season means we’ll have more days where there’s going to be higher chances for thunderstorm activity to materialize and thus more cloud cover, more rainfall,” said Lojero. “That will help mitigate, somewhat, any sort of extreme heat that may try to materialize.”