The Colorado River is stretched thin, and the amount of water in it every year has big consequences for the roughly 40 million people who depend on it. As the river feels the crunch of drought, climate change and steady demand, scientists are working to make Colorado River forecasts more accurate to help cities and farms plan for shortages.
A team of researchers at Arizona State University is building models for Colorado River flows that go beyond the amount of water in the river itself, bringing in satellite data about the amount of water held in snow and soil.
New research published in Scientific Reports shows how scientists at ASU’s Center for Hydrologic Innovations worked to hone a satellite model called the Variable Infiltration Capacity — or VIC — to work in the unique environments of the Colorado River basin.
The tool was originally designed to track water in the conifer forests of the Pacific Northwest, according to Enrique Vivoni, one of the scientists who helped tweak it to work better on desert landscapes.
“Over a sequence of about 10 years, we've been progressively improving the model to incorporate the features that are important in the hydrology of the Colorado River,” said Vivoni, a senior author on the new study.
Vivoni said his team worked closely with the Central Arizona Project — which brings Colorado River water to the Phoenix and Tucson areas — to make the new satellite data tools available to the agency’s water managers.
“It's sort of a balancing act for a water management agency,” Vivoni said. “They're really concerned about the current status of the Colorado River and its crisis, but they're also thinking ahead as to what will this river basin look like 5, 10, 15 years from now, so that we can plan over a longer horizon as we negotiate the current crisis.”
Data about how much water is in the river at a given point is used to determine how much will flow to certain cities and farms. By making that data more accurate, water managers can develop better plans for how to cope with shortages during dry times.
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