Most of the Valley saw less than a quarter-inch of rain from Monday’s storms and forecasts show there’s not much chance for moisture for the next few days. But Phoenix could be in for a wet fall.
National Weather Service Meteorologist Gabriel Lojero said Phoenix’s next chance for rain could be Friday or the weekend.
“We're going to have tropical moisture potentially moving up here, and then that will combine with an upper-level low-pressure system off the West Coast, and it could potentially signal more showers and thunderstorm chances,” Lojero said.
And chances for those tropical storms may increase in September and October due to record-hot Pacific Ocean temperatures that are creating an exceptionally strong El Niño system, Lojero said.
“Usually when we have El Niño, the hurricane season down in the eastern Pacific is more active than normal,” Lojero said. “More likely we're going to have these frequent intrusions of the moisture associated with these systems that may bring in more frequent chances for showers and thunderstorms.”
Long-range forecasts from the Climate Prediction Center show a 40% to 50% probability of above-normal rainfall in Arizona throughout the fall.
That would be welcome in Phoenix, where rainfall has been well below-normal so far in 2026. Typically, by the end of August, Sky Harbor International Airport would have received nearly 5 inches of rain. This year, just 1.57 inches of rain have been recorded there.
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