The Show for Oct. 2, 2206: Friday NewsCap, a year without the Cactus League and more

The Maricopa County Attorney found fewer noncitizens had voted in Arizona elections than other officials had suggested. Our Friday NewsCap panelists analyze that and the rest of the week’s top stories. Plus, how baseball’s labor dispute could impact the Cactus League.

Transcript

ANNOUNCER: KJZZ’s original production The Show is supported by Banner Health, Arizona’s largest nonprofit healthcare system. Last year, Banner reinvested more than $1.1 billion in community health and charity care. Banner Health, nonprofit for Arizona. bannerhealth.com/nonprofitforaz.

MARK BRODIE: Hi, I’m Mark Brodie, co-host of The Show, an original production from KJZZ. Every weekday, we bring you the latest news and culture from across the state. You can find much more at theshow.kjzz.org. Here’s today’s episode.

MARK BRODIE: Good morning, it’s The Show here on KJZZ 91.5 in Phoenix. I’m Mark Brodie. Coming up, how diesel prices are affecting one school district’s budget. And Major League Baseball has released the Cactus League schedule for next year. Will those games get played as owners and players negotiate a new collective bargaining agreement? But first, it is time for the Friday NewsCap and some voices from the news this week.

RACHEL MITCHELL: All eight of the noncitizen voters are in the U.S. legally. Most have lived in the U.S. for decades. One person has been here more than 72 years.

ALEXANDER KOLODIN: We’re going to have election results on election night. That’s what I’m going to deliver for Arizona voters.

ADRIAN FONTES: We know, because he’s already said, he would let the Trump administration do whatever they want and establish whatever rules they wanted.

GREG BLACKIE: With this measure, they would provide some sort of identification, whether that is writing four digits on the envelope where they currently sign, and then covering it with a privacy flap, or who knows?

RANDY KEATING: The fact of the matter is Arizona’s elections are safe, secure, and accurate, and there’s no reason to amend the Constitution based on, “Hey, we’ll fix it later.”

DAVID GOWAN: We always talk about not having enough housing in this state. Yet, we’re going to take a plot of land that’s perfect for housing, right next to our city, out for 30 years.

MARK KELLY: Donald Trump obviously likes to surround himself with billionaires. I mean, that’s what that group is: a lot of AI executives and just tech executives who are going to benefit from this technology, probably more than anybody else.

MARK BRODIE: And with me to talk about the findings about how many noncitizens actually cast ballots in Arizona elections, a contentious debate between candidates for secretary of state, and more, are Jaime Molera of the firm Molera Alvarez. Jaime, good morning.

JAIME MOLERA: Good morning.

MARK BRODIE: And former congressional staffer Roy Herrera. Roy, good morning to you.

ROY HERRERA: Good morning. Happy Friday.

MARK BRODIE: Happy Friday to both of you. So, Jaime, let me start with you on County Attorney Rachel Mitchell found that eight non-citizen voters out of 60 that were referred to her by the recorder, Justin Heap, from this SAVE database had cast ballots — noncitizens, but not people who were in the country illegally — and basically said there’s no widespread fraud here. So is this, like, is it fair to say that this has been much ado about nothing?

JAIME MOLERA: Well, I think it has, candidly. I think a lot of the insinuations that there was some problems with the election processes, that there might be some fraud that was taking place in certain areas, was fairly widespread in the Legislature over the last, as we know, over the last several years.

So when you finally got down to it, and they looked at the actual data — and the data, the database that was actually the federal database that was used — it comes out to these eight people.

And even our County Attorney Rachel Mitchell, who has a really stellar reputation, made it very clear that she didn’t believe that there was fraud necessarily. There were certain glitches in the law that allowed this to happen. But when you look at the number of people that have voted over the last decade and it comes down to eight people, I just think that shows that there’s really much ado about nothing.

MARK BRODIE: Well, so, Roy, I mean one of the other things that County Attorney Mitchell said was, yes, this did not affect the results of any elections, she didn’t think. But every vote that is cast by somebody who shouldn’t cast a vote dilutes the vote of somebody who is legally entitled to cast a vote. Is there an argument to be made that there maybe are some things that need to be tightened up here?

ROY HERRERA: I mean, there’s definitely an argument to be made that noncitizens shouldn’t be voting. And that’s why we have laws, and have had laws, in Arizona that prohibit that, right? And nationally as well.

But I think the findings from the county attorney is a very good data point to Jaime’s point, that I totally agree with, which is to say that these allegations of widespread fraud on the basis that there are lots of noncitizens voting is completely false. And those allegations have been made by President Trump and a lot of his acolytes for years now. And again, we see the reality here, which is that it’s not actually an issue.

And I think one of the things that concerns me is really about this federal database, because this is how we got, you know, the original list of names that the county attorney was able to investigate. This SAVE database is something that President Trump has been pushing, you know, since he got into his second term. It’s something that the Supreme Court is now allowing to go forward, at least for now, to be used.

And when you look at that, and you say, OK, well, out of the, you know, 60 people that the SAVE database flagged as potentially non-citizen voters, only eight are actually noncitizens. I mean, that’s not a great rate of validation.

MARK BRODIE: The rest are, in fact, citizens and eligible to vote.

ROY HERRERA: Exactly. And so my concern is — and we’re lucky that we had the county attorney and the resources to actually investigate the flags that the SAVE database gave us—my fear is that in other jurisdictions that use the SAVE database in order to check their voter roll accuracy, that that kind of error rate is going to exist, and they’re not going to do the follow-up. And that’s going to result in people being disenfranchised.

MARK BRODIE: Yeah. Jaime, is this a concern, especially given the U.S. Supreme Court’s ruling just from like a week or so ago that, you know, districts, counties, states, cities can use this SAVE database to try to flag folks who maybe shouldn’t be voting?

JAIME MOLERA: Well, the thing for me, Mark, that really is disconcerting, as a Republican that was a part of administrations that really wanted to get more people to vote — we pushed the notion of mail-in ballots, allowing for voting centers to occur, making it easier for the public that might not have as easy a time to go vote on Election Day — that we created a process that we had more people be engaged.

And the Republicans have been fighting that over the last several years, which is very, as I said, disconcerting, because it goes against what a lot of us wanted to see happen. And we think it has made the Republican Party stronger in Arizona by getting more people engaged in this process. And to create these structures that we’re saying that there’s fraud, and there’s things in place that are going to push people away from voting, is just antithetical to what I think a lot of us have been fighting for over these last several decades.

MARK BRODIE: Roy, safe to say — and especially given the debate between the two candidates for secretary of state — that these findings by Rachel Mitchell will not end the debate over whether or not there is fraud, whether or not there are lots and lots and lots of people who shouldn’t be voting who are actually voting?

ROY HERRERA: It won’t end the debate. You know, again, because I go back to the fact that the president, you know, every day continues to make these claims about how, you know, mail-in voting, for example, can lead to voter fraud. Again, you know, there’s no factual basis for that allegation, but the president does that. A lot of sort of the MAGA-type folks agree with him.

And I think we’re going to have a ballot referral, you know, that’s going to go to the Arizona voters this year related to voter fraud that could lead to, if it passes, elimination of mail-in ballots, or at the very least, making it much more difficult for people to vote. So it’s safe to say that the debate is going to continue, and it certainly did in that lively secretary of state debate.

MARK BRODIE: OK, so, Roy, let me stay with you. You used the word “lively.” I used the word “contentious.” What do you think is maybe the best adjective used to describe that interaction?

ROY HERRERA: I mean, contentious is pretty good. I sort of watched it and started thinking about if they had to settle things outside, who would win that fight? Because it seemed like it got personal like that. You know, the irony is —

MARK BRODIE: Well, Fontes did say to Kolodin, if you call me, what, the drug cartel lawyer again, we’re going to have a personal problem.

ROY HERRERA: Exactly. And a fun story about that is that when Secretary Fontes was a federal public defender in defending folks, which is I think what Mr. Kolodin was referring to, I was a federal prosecutor, and I was against him in a lot of these cases.

And Adrian Fontes was a very good defense lawyer. And his role back then, by the way, was just upholding the Constitution and people’s right to counsel. So it’s kind of sad that that was being criticized by Mr. Kolodin.

But again, clearly they do not like each other, and they got personal. But again, the debate really, I think, centered a lot around this ballot referral, which I think is a good discussion.

MARK BRODIE: This is the Prop. 144, which Kolodin sponsored in the Legislature, which is, I think, a page in terms of like how long the measure was in the Legislature. But, Jaime, to Roy’s point, a lot of folks are saying this could really put a dent in the ability of Arizonans to vote by mail.

JAIME MOLERA: Correct. And one of the things that I think is problematic for the Republicans this year is that by allowing these types of legislation to move through — in this case, this was a referral; it didn’t have to go to the governor, and that’s why there was no veto on it — it created this backlash, I think, for a lot of these candidates that are now trying to hold on. The Republicans are doing everything they can to keep the House of Representatives, to keep the State Senate. But it’s these types of things that have really put a big X on a lot of these candidates, and that’s why they’re being targeted.

MARK BRODIE: Self-inflicted wounds, you think?

JAIME MOLERA: Absolutely. And so rather than a lot of these caucuses saying to Mr. Kolodin, “You know what? This legislation is not going to help us at the end of the day. It’s actually going to hurt us,” they let these things through. Now all of a sudden it’s being used against them in these campaigns. And there’s a very real possibility that the Legislature could flip. And I think a lot of this was self-inflicted because they didn’t have that kind of discipline that they needed.

MARK BRODIE: What do you make, Jaime, of the debate between Kolodin and Fontes?

JAIME MOLERA: I would say snake pit. That’s a better analogy. And it was really, unfortunately, it wasn’t based on any kind of real policies. It was more personal. But that’s what it’s devolved into.

Again, Mr. Kolodin is coming up with a lot of accusations that I’m not sure has a lot of merit. And by and large, I think the secretary of state has shown himself to be somebody that has worked with the Republican Legislature. So it’s interesting to see how this devolved.

MARK BRODIE: So quickly before we go to break Fontes, of the top three Democrats who won four years ago, Fontes won by the biggest margin, which maybe isn’t saying a whole lot. But do you see, Roy, like do you see comparisons between four years ago in his race versus this year? Do you see him, like how do you see his position in this race relative to Mr. Kolodin?

ROY HERRERA: I mean, I think he’s the clear favorite at this point for reelection. But I also think some of that is because he’s done a good job as the secretary of state. Some of that is because the overall political environment I think is not good for Republicans.

And I think all three, both Gov. Hobbs, Attorney General Mayes, and Secretary of State Fontes, are the clear favorites at this point, with ballots dropping next week, very soon. So I think that’s where they’re at at this point.

MARK BRODIE: Jaime, what do you think?

JAIME MOLERA: Well, a lot of it are the candidates, too. I mean, he won last time around by a large margin because he ran against Mark Finchem, who’s a current state senator. But Finchem was part of that group of Republicans that were saying that there was all kinds of widespread fraud and there’s manipulation of the elections. And so there was no credibility.

Kolodin is kind of coming from that same standpoint. And when you don’t have a lot of credibility, especially when you’re running for these statewide offices, then it’s going to show up in the polls. And that’s, unfortunately, that’s what’s happening, is that quality of candidate is not the candidate that I think Republicans would want to rally around.

MARK BRODIE: Interesting. All right. Let’s take a quick break. That’s Jaime Molera. I’m also joined by Roy Herrera. I’m Mark Brodie in Phoenix. The Friday NewsCap continues in just a moment.

MARK BRODIE: Good morning, it’s the Friday NewsCap on KJZZ 91.5. I’m Mark Brodie. My guests this week are former congressional staffer Roy Herrera and Jaime Molera from the firm Molera Alvarez.

Roy, let me start with you. The Cook Political Report, a national prognostication service, I guess is maybe one of the ways to put it, had news about two Arizona congressional races, maybe the two swingiest districts in the state, two that a lot of folks are saying could help determine who controls the U.S. House come January.

They listed CD6, which is in Southern Arizona. That’s the district currently represented by Juan Ciscomani. They’ve rated that as a toss-up. And CD1 — which is currently David Schweikert’s district, but he, of course, is leaving Congress — as a lean Democratic. Any surprise to in either of these?

ROY HERRERA: No surprise at all. And in full disclosure, I’m working for the (JoAnna) Mendoza campaign down in —

MARK BRODIE: Who’s running against Ciscomani.

ROY HERRERA: Exactly. But no surprise at all. Again, we kind of referred to this in the last segment a little bit, which is that the political environment for Republicans is just really, really bad. I mean, President Trump has the worst approval ratings of any president in modern history, even worse than Biden, even worse than his first term. And I think that’s had an effect.

And in the last few weeks, I think we’ve seen significant shifts to Democrats in polling at the congressional level and the statewide level. So, I’m not surprised that there’s been a shift.

And I do think there is something about candidate quality to be said, like Jaime referred to earlier. I do think the Democrats have put up two high-quality congressional candidates in those two districts. And those two districts, by the way, in the last few election cycles were always very close. I mean, some of the closest districts that we’ve had in the country. So in this environment with the wind at our backs, at the Democrats’ backs, it’s no surprise that they’re the favorites.

MARK BRODIE: Jaime, let me ask you about specifically CD1, because for several cycles now, Democrats have been hopeful/optimistic that they could defeat David Schweikert. He always won.

Is it different now? Obviously, the conventional wisdom is it’s easier to win an open seat than beat an incumbent. But given everything Roy’s talking about, given the fact that there is no incumbent, does CD1 seem like a reasonable pick-up chance for Democrats?

JAIME MOLERA: Oh, absolutely it is. Absolutely. But I would disagree a little bit with my colleague here talking about quality of candidates. I think the Republicans have very good quality candidates for both of those races.

MARK BRODIE: Jay Feely in CD1 and Juan Ciscomani in CD6.

JAIME MOLERA: Correct. I think those are the best candidates that they can have in a bad election cycle. And let’s be clear, this is a very bad election cycle for Republicans. I liken it to what happened in 2006 when there was a massive blue wave across the country. The difference was that Arizona had Senator, John Kyl, that lifted the Republicans, and there really isn’t that kind of anchor —

MARK BRODIE: A top of the ticket kind of candidate.

JAIME MOLERA: That can help stabilize the Republican tickets. But Feely and Ciscomani are very quality. I think it’s going to be still a toss-up. I think it can go either way, and I know they’re going to be campaigning till the bitter end. So it’s going to be very, very tight.

MARK BRODIE: When you talk about Feely being maybe the best candidate Republicans could have asked for in this cycle, how much of that comes down to the fact that pretty much — I’m not saying everybody, because not everybody’s a football fan, of course — but he’s got pretty good name ID?

JAIME MOLERA: Sure. And he was somebody that’s been around the community. Now, one of the things that’s hurting him candidly, if you look at the attack ads against him, it has nothing about his policies, nothing about what he stands for, really, except that he stands with Donald Trump. I mean, those are the things that they’re just going after him and pounding him, that he’s a Donald Trump-supported candidate, and that’s it.

And they’re trying to rely on the backlash to what’s happening nationally that could hurt him. And I think what Feely’s trying to do between now and the final votes that are given on Election Day is trying to distance himself and trying to show that he’s going to be his own man in Congress.

MARK BRODIE: So, Roy, I know that — I’m guessing that if I asked which of these districts do you think Democrats have a best chance of winning, you would say both. But if you had to take off your working for Mendoza campaign hat for just a moment if you can, do you think that one of those Democrats maybe have a better chance than the other? If Democrats were to win one of those races, is there one that to you just sort of based on the fundamentals, based on the environment, based on the candidates that you think maybe they have a better chance in?

ROY HERRERA: Well, I would just go back to how I kind of referred to earlier, how close these elections have been in prior election cycles. And CD6 is the one down in Tucson that has been closer. And so, I would point to that first as far as when the pendulum swings, that would be the first one.

But my answer is going to be ultimately that both of them are in good shape. And to Jaime’s point, I don’t disagree necessarily that Feely and Ciscomani were the best candidates that the Republicans could put up. But the attacks that are being made against Feely, for example, on doing what Trump wants are effective because they’re true. I mean, he has been a Trump supporter for his entire, as far as he’s been sort of in public life. And he’s been very clear about that.

And it’s only until recently, in recent weeks, where he’s scrubbed his website of Trump references, started to distance himself, all of that stuff. He didn’t do that before. And the only reason he did that now is because Trump’s approval ratings are so bad. So it’s hard to run away from that at this point when it’s something that the Trump policies have been something that Feely has embraced for a very long time.

MARK BRODIE: Jaime, you talked just a few minutes ago about how Democrats might win control of one of the chambers of the Legislature. Do you think they have a legit chance to win both of these congressional districts, too?

JAIME MOLERA: Absolutely they have a legit chance. I think that’s why I say both of them, in my opinion, are toss-ups. And I think it’s going to be incumbent upon Ciscomani and Feely to be very aggressive in getting — well, there’s two things that need to happen. They need to make sure Republicans get out to vote. And that’s one of the issues right now, is that there’s a lot of lack of enthusiasm amongst Republicans. Now Republicans enjoy a pretty hefty registration advantage in Arizona.

MARK BRODIE: Yeah, a couple hundred thousand voters.

JAIME MOLERA: Maybe not so much in these particular districts, but they still enjoy an advantage. It’s getting them out to vote. And making them understand why it’s so significant that if you do not come out to vote for me in their arguments, that you’re going to go in a different direction that’s not what these congressional districts want to see happen, which is much more progressive, much more in line with the social Democratic cause. Those are the kinds of things that they need to make that case for.

MARK BRODIE: All right, guys. This week, Arizona universities got a little more than $16 million in leftover COVID relief money. I didn’t realize there was still COVID relief money hanging around from a few years ago. Gov. Hobbs sent that money to the three public universities basically saying to offset cuts that they took in the state budget. Jaime, I assume the universities are thrilled about this. Obviously, there’s going to be some criticism that, “Hey, by the way, ballots are going out next week, and now the universities are getting $16.5 million.”

JAIME MOLERA: Well, it’s interesting that this wasn’t brought up, that there was extra COVID money during the budget process. Some people would be a little bit skeptical as to why this was done, and certainly I am, because I think it was a very strong political maneuver by the governor.

Because if you look at where these dollars could have had a, in my opinion, a much bigger impact, there’s a lot of, for instance, developmental disabilities issues that we have huge funding gaps for. A lot of it was because we instituted COVID policies that helped push up those prices.

Well, you would argue that some of those families are not as maybe politically active as maybe folks that are tied to the universities are. So you can see why Republicans are being critical, because they’re saying, “Well, of course, this was a strong political maneuver.” And by the way, you could have brought this up when we were doing the budget process, so we could have mitigated those dollars against all these other kinds of budget priorities that they just ignored.

MARK BRODIE: Roy, what do you think? Political move?

ROY HERRERA: It may be, and I think it’s a smart one if it is. You know, it’s unfortunate that the cut — it was a 2.5% cut in the state budget for universities — happened in the first place. That’s really unfortunate. And I do think with these COVID relief funds, like you, I didn’t know we still had any. But there’s going to have to be questions answered about where the money was allocated before, right? I mean, it obviously got moved.

But I think the larger point is that education funding, whether it be K-12 or university funding, long-term funding, permanent funding is still going to be a major topic, and I think it’s going to be a major topic next legislative session, particularly if what I think happens and the Democrats take either tie or take control of the Legislature, if that happens, because I think there’s going to be an appetite to spend more on education here. And the question’s going to be like, “OK, well, how do we do that?” So, that’ll be the future debate.

MARK BRODIE: All right. Quickly before we wrap up, Roy, does this affect the governor’s race one way or the other? Help the governor, hurt the governor, no effect?

ROY HERRERA: I mean, I think it helps the governor, but I also think we’re at a point now where — you know, there was a reference to John Kyl being at the top of the ticket in 2006. That’s right, and he won, right?

We’re in a completely different environment now, where I think the governor’s race has really gotten away from the Republicans, is my personal view. I don’t think Biggs has been a strong candidate, and I think the governor may win by a lot at this point. And so anything related to this university funding wouldn’t have made a difference anyways, because she’s that far ahead.

MARK BRODIE: Do you think it matters, Jaime, in the governor’s race?

JAIME MOLERA: I don’t think it matters. I disagree that this thing is over. I think there’s a chance. I think there’s an opportunity for a comeback.

ROY HERRERA: So you’re saying theres a chance.

JAIME MOLERA: There’s an opportunity. And because Andy Biggs is not an insignificant candidate. He’s very smart, he’s got a long track record, he was a strong Senate president. So, I think there’s still a month to go.

MARK BRODIE: The only poll that really matters is the one on Election Day, right?

JAIME MOLERA: Exactly.

ROY HERRERA: That’s true.

MARK BRODIE: All right. Jaime Molera, Roy Herrera, thanks to you both for the conversation. I appreciate it.

ROY HERRERA: Thank you.

MARK BRODIE: Good morning, it’s The Show on KJZZ 91.5. I’m Mark Brodie. Coming up, we’ll hear from the author of a true crime book about the wrongful conviction of an Apache medicine man.

But first, the baseball playoffs are moving to the divisional series round this weekend, and the Arizona Fall League kicks off tomorrow. But looming in the background of all these games is the expiration of the current collective bargaining agreement on Dec. 1, and the expectation that MLB owners will lock out the players on that date.

As the sides work toward a new CBA and negotiate over issues like a salary cap, there are predictions that baseball could miss games next season, possibly even lots of games. And any change in the schedule could have an impact on the Cactus League.

A newly released analysis from ASU finds a missed Cactus League season would cost the state nearly half a billion dollars in economic activity, based on last year’s attendance.

With me to talk about this is Bridget Binsbacher, executive director of the Cactus League Baseball Association. And Bridget, how do you try to even plan for the next season when you don’t really know what’s going to happen?

BRIDGET BINSBACHER: Well, obviously, it does affect the planning and thinking about it as we approach the 2027 season. But, looking at the history, a labor stoppage, the collective bargaining agreement, that is part of the industry. It happens every five years, and we’ve shown from past history that we can be ready, like that.

And so our facilities are planning for the season, and the collective bargaining agreement, all that discussion is between Major League Baseball and the Players Association. So, we’re not involved in those conversations. We can’t really speculate. But like fans everywhere, we’re just hoping that the two parties come to an agreement so that we can have a season.

MARK BRODIE: So, are the facilities and the other folks involved sort of planning as if it will go on as planned, and then adjust when it gets closer based on what’s happening at that time?

BRIDGET BINSBACHER: Absolutely. Yes, and we’ve talked about this in our operations discussions, which is primarily from facility operators. And they’re all planning and preparing like they would any other year, obviously waiting to hear the latest update.

But, you know — and I hate to say “business as usual” as though this isn’t something significant, because it is. I mean, we know what the impact is to the state of Arizona. That’s what we’ve been talking about for the past week. It is significant. And so, we want to make sure that we’re ready so we can make the most of this opportunity, whatever it brings.

In 2022, that was the last season that we went through this. And the season was delayed a little bit, but we were ready to open our gates as soon as we could, and made the most of that opportunity. And I would repeat the same thing for 2027.

MARK BRODIE: I was going to ask if you take lessons from past instances where this has happened. It sounds like that is very much the case.

BRIDGET BINSBACHER: Well, that was very, very unusual, because we had the season canceled because of the pandemic — I believe it was March 12, 2020. And then in 2021, we had a modified season, reduced capacity, and all of that. And then 2022 was the last CBA. So, yeah.

MARK BRODIE: So you look back to sort of how operations went, at least maybe the 2022 — not so much COVID, but the 2022 season, and maybe look at that and say, “OK, this is what happened, this is how we handled it, this is what worked, this is what didn’t work,” and maybe try to adjust based on that?

BRIDGET BINSBACHER: Yes, and really, it’s just about being ready. And our facilities have shown time and time again with unforeseen circumstances that we can be ready at a moment’s notice. We can adjust and do whatever we need to to make the most of the opportunity.

I mean, last season we recorded an increase for the fifth consecutive season, and we had record-breaking temperatures, heat waves last season. We adjusted quickly. This is the same. We’ll do what we have to to make the most of the opportunity.

MARK BRODIE: What are the biggest challenges in terms of not knowing when the season might start, and maybe to an extent, not knowing if there will be a season?

BRIDGET BINSBACHER: I think for anyone anticipating or participating in any way, directly or indirectly, with spring training, uncertainty — uncertainty is just, it’s challenging for our facilities, for our municipalities, for surrounding businesses. It’s difficult.

And, you know, the Cactus League, again, when we just put out our numbers, this is an $806 million impact, total impact. Nearly $500 million gross domestic product. We generate 5,500 jobs as a result of spring training.

And so, planning for all of that, teeing up all of those seasonal employees, facility staff, all of that, concessionaires, box office — so they’re working, starting to work on that now. Knowing when Opening Day is, based on what schedule we have at this point in time, that’s what they’re doing like they would any other year. And then, as they get closer, they’ll be watching it every day and planning accordingly.

MARK BRODIE: Yeah, I would imagine, especially on the employment front, it would be difficult to hire folks or have them say, “Look, we don’t know when necessarily you’re going to start.” And, you know, people need jobs, they need to earn money, and maybe some of the folks, you know, these facilities that hire take other jobs, and then they get the word, “OK, season’s starting in X number of days,” scrambling maybe to try to hire people.

BRIDGET BINSBACHER: Yeah, very real issue. For spring training, historically we’ve had a lot of these employees are seasonal employees, same thing with our volunteers. There’s over 2,000 volunteers, and then some, representing our nonprofit partners. And, you know, they come from wherever, following their team, winter visitors, whatever it might be, and they’re, too, anticipating what they’re going to do and when the season’s going to start.

MARK BRODIE: How nervous are you about what spring of 2027 is going to look like?

BRIDGET BINSBACHER: Gosh, you know, I’m optimistic. My glass is half full all the time, and in my lifetime, just watching this, I have not experienced a cancellation of spring training. And I started paying attention back in the ’90s when there were some challenges.

And I just, we haven’t seen anything like that, but again, you know, it’s hard to speculate, and I don’t want to think the worst, because we don’t know that the worst is going to happen. And so, we just want to keep moving forward and be as prepared as we can be to make the most of the opportunity. I keep saying that over and over, don’t I? But it’s true, we don’t want to miss this opportunity.

MARK BRODIE: So you referenced the economic importance of the Cactus League to the Valley and to the state. Is it possible, do you think, to make that up? Like, if spring training is shorter than average, or maybe it doesn’t happen at all, is that just a total loss for the state, do you think? Or are there other ways, and maybe some of the facilities can sort of work to attract people from Chicago and Seattle and everywhere else that comes to spring training to see their teams to do something else?

BRIDGET BINSBACHER: I don’t know if we could make it up. The impact is monumental, and we know that 6 out of 10 fans come from somewhere else. And our attendance was 1,753,000, I believe. Six out of 10 fans come from somewhere else in the country. And we know that they’re here for spring training. They’re staying four nights, they’re seeing at least three games, they’re spending nearly $400 a day. And it’s a huge impact.

And our economic impact study, the number we put out, it’s very important to note that strictly measures money and dollars and impact coming from out of state. So the question is, what would the Arizona fans that are already here spending money do?

I also want to point out these facilities do not go dark in the off-season. There are things, thousands of events, activities, tournaments, happening in these facilities all year long. And that drives an impact as well. And this only, we’ve only measured what happens for spring training, which is a mega event. It’s a mega event like a Super Bowl. The big difference is that it happens year after year after year. I don't see how we can make it up.

MARK BRODIE: All right. That is Bridget Binsbacher, executive director of the Cactus League Baseball Association. Bridget, thanks so much.

BRIDGET BINSBACHER: Thank you for having me.

MARK BRODIE: Diesel costs on average about $6.28 per gallon in Arizona as of today, according to AAA Arizona. That’s 41 cents higher than a month ago and more than $2 higher than a year ago. A big culprit for the rise in prices is supply shortages from the war in Iraq and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Those higher prices are affecting school districts across the state, especially those in rural Arizona. The Flagstaff Unified School District runs 31 diesel buses. Last year, the district’s entire fleet drove more than 460,000 miles.

Michael Penca is superintendent of the Flagstaff Unified School District. He joins me now to talk more about how they’re responding. Michael, good morning.

MICHAEL PENCA: Good morning.

MARK BRODIE: So how big of a concern is this for you?

MICHAEL PENCA: Well, it is a big concern because the prices have been so volatile really since last March, and we see a lot of up and down, but kind of steadily increasing. And that’s additional costs for the school district. ... Last year, in our last fiscal year, we spent over $240,000 on diesel fuel, and for much of that year, the price per gallon was in the $2-something range. And now we’re hitting upper $4. Just a couple of days ago, our last purchase for our school district was just over $5 a gallon. And so we could see that cost of fuel go from $240,000 up to $400,000, $500,000 if these prices continue.

MARK BRODIE: Is that kind of what you’re estimating at this point, $400,000 to $500,000, like potentially almost a 50% increase?

MICHAEL PENCA: Well, if we continue to run — ... last August, we were paying $2.53 a gallon. And like I said, a couple days ago, we paid over $5 a gallon. So if we continue to see prices double, that’s kind of would be our rough estimate.

MARK BRODIE: How big of a challenge is — you mentioned volatility. Obviously higher prices are not great for you, but I wonder if the fact that you just don’t know where they’re going to go from one day to the next is sort of an additional challenge?

MICHAEL PENCA: It certainly is. I’m really proud of our transportation staff. They really are monitoring different factors that might increase prices or have an impact on prices. And so that could be production, world events, all those kind of things. And so we kind of are like hedging and like, “It dropped down. Let’s buy today,” and try to fill up our tank so that we can save a little bit of, a few hundred dollars with every purchase just on timing our purchases correctly.

MARK BRODIE: Obviously, your district, like every district, does not have unlimited money. So if you’re spending potentially 50% more on fuel ... where are you getting that money from?

MICHAEL PENCA: Well, it comes right out of our operational budget. And in Arizona, our school districts are funded on what’s called current year funding. So it’s really based on the number of students that we serve over the first 100 days of this school year. But we set our budget last June, we’ve issued contracts to teachers and staff, and so a lot of our expenses are kind of fixed, but our revenue, our students ... the students that show up, that can wane over time over those first 100 days.

Flagstaff Unified School District is a district that has experienced declining enrollment in the ... last several years. So again, we just have to carefully manage our funds. ... Any increase that’s happening in real time this year, as we amend our budget throughout the year, that means we may have to pull back in some other areas.

MARK BRODIE: Like are you looking at potentially fewer teachers, fewer class offerings, that kind of thing?

MICHAEL PENCA: It wouldn’t be in this year, but again, if we continue to see increased expenses — and that can be diesel or other utilities, I mean, the cost of everything, the cost of doing business is more expensive than it was a year ago. And it’s challenging.

I mean, our state increases our base support level by 2% or the lesser of 2% or the cost of inflation. Well, you know inflation’s been running way above 2% for the last several years, but our state funding’s coming in at 2%. And then if you’re experiencing a decline in students, you’re kind of seeing a flat budget. And so, yes, you have to make very strategic and sometimes ... decisions about staffing model, programs, all kinds of things. And that’s a process we go through really starting late fall all the way through next spring before we set the budget for this current year.

MARK BRODIE: Well, so then, as you say, you’re starting probably in the next coming weeks or so to start looking at what next year’s budget is going to be. Are you planning to plan for these continued higher diesel prices?

MICHAEL PENCA: Absolutely. Absolutely. And so that’s — we look at kind of previous year trends, what we’re seeing in real time this year, and then we have to really project out as we set that budget for the next year.

MARK BRODIE: Are there things that you can do sort of within — you mentioned, you know, sometimes you’re buying diesel at — just trying to get it just the right moment. Are there other things you can do to try to reduce the cost even as the price of diesel’s going up?

MICHAEL PENCA: Absolutely. One of the strategies we’re working on right now is just reducing the idling time of buses. And so we’re working with our transportation team and manufacturer. There’s actually timers you can install so that when it hits a five-minute limit and the bus hasn’t been moving, it’s been idling, it can turn it off. So those are ways that we can save a few dollars and a few gallons of diesel here and there.

Over the last several years, we’ve really worked to diversify our fleet. And so we have 31 diesel buses, 15 propane buses, and then we currently have two electric vehicles. And just recently, our governing board approved the purchase of five more additional electric buses. So really that diversity.

We’re a very large school district, 4,400 square miles, largest school district by geographic area in the state of Arizona. And so we are busing students in really from an hour and a half in every direction from Flagstaff to come to our schools. We’re traveling all over most of Coconino County, onto the Navajo Nation to transport students. And so we rack up a lot of miles.

And so we can use those different fuel-type buses strategically to reduce those diesel costs. ... So in town, we’re using electric, propane buses. But we still have to use diesel when we’re going out to Cameron or trips for students down to Phoenix area for athletics, we still have to rely on diesel. And so just how we strategically use our fleet ... continuing that diversification, reducing idle time, and then try to time our diesel purchases ... monitoring kind of the volatile market.

MARK BRODIE: Right. All right. That is Michael Penca, superintendent of the Flagstaff Unified School District. Michael, thanks so much.

MICHAEL PENCA: Thank you for the opportunity.

MARK BRODIE: Silas John Edwards was a towering figure among the Apache people in Arizona about a century ago until he was accused of murdering his wife and put behind bars. He was a healer and medicine man who actually formed a new religion, the Holy Ground Movement, that drew from traditional Apache beliefs as well as Christianity, and he created a new language associated with it. The sect still has followers today.

JACK EL-HAI: In part, it was a response to what was happening on the reservations, primarily the White Mountain reservation, where many of the Apache people living there felt like their lives were not in their own control; that reservation authorities dictated a lot of what they did; had control over their supply of food; where their children went to school; what language was spoken in school — all of that.

MARK BRODIE: That’s acclaimed author Jack El-Hai, who takes on Edwards’ story in his newest book, “The Case of the Autographed Corpse: A Medicine Man and a Mystery Writer in Pursuit of Justice,” out next week. El-Hai told my co-host, Lauren Gilger, many of the early Holy Ground ceremonies were closed to white people. They were for Apaches only. So when the celebrated Apache figure was accused of murder, the waves were felt far and wide.

JACK EL-HAI: All this happened in 1933, and Silas John had just returned home from serving a stint in prison. Silas John was frequently arrested for a variety of things, sometimes for conducting religious services, sometimes for selling intoxicated drinks. So, he was coming out after one of those times in jail, and he and his wife, Margaret, and some friends went out celebrating and visited many of their friends and neighbors, had a night of it.

But during that time, Silas John and Margaret began arguing. Margaret had long known that Silas John was carrying on with another woman. This was a younger cousin of Margaret’s, and they began arguing about it. And the argument reached a peak, and Margaret said, “I’m out of here.” And she left and began walking towards her mother’s home, a distance of a few miles. And while Margaret was on her way to her mother’s, she was attacked and brutally beaten and killed.

The cause of her death, as the medical examiner ascertained afterwards, was blows to her head by rocks. ... Those rocks were found at the side of her body. Two of them were bloody, and the third had these curious scratchings on it. And if you looked at the rock and held it in the right direction, that scratching gave the initials “SJE,” Silas John Edwards, Margaret’s husband’s name. And that’s how Silas John became a suspect.

LAUREN GILGER: Right, the sort of odd thing where his initials were inscribed on a rock. And we’ll talk more about that later. But he goes to prison, to make a long story short, and 17 years later — so like a very long time later — he appeals to this mystery series author, right? This guy who wrote many books under the Perry Mason mystery series. Why would he turn to someone like that?

JACK EL-HAI: In desperation, because those 17 years — Silas John was sentenced to life in federal prison, convicted and sentenced for the first-degree murder of his wife on the flimsiest, silliest evidence you can imagine, including the rock.

But during those 17 years, he was working very hard to try and establish his innocence and secure his own release. He had secured affidavits from people who could vouch for his whereabouts on the night that Margaret was murdered. He applied for pardons and all kinds of legal maneuvers. None of that worked.

So by this time, we’re in the early 1950s, and the writer Erle Stanley Gardner was one of the best-selling authors in the world. He had written many of the famous Perry Mason mysteries — a lot of other books, too. And more importantly, he had established an organization called the Court of Last Resort. ... And the Court of Last Resort investigated the cases of people who may have been wrongfully convicted of serious crimes.

So that is why Silas John wrote to him, to find out if this organization would be willing to take up his own case. And Gardner read Silas John’s letter, was impressed by the letter. Later on, they met in prison. Gardner was even more impressed. And they decided that they would mutually reinvestigate the case.

He went to the reservation, visited the places. Gardner was this great mapmaker, and he drew maps and calculated times and distances. And Gardner concluded Silas John could not have committed this murder of his own wife. ...

LAUREN GILGER: But there was this interesting question, right, of these rocks, which the prosecution, right, had attributed to some sort of Indigenous ritual, putting his initials on those rocks. Is that right?

JACK EL-HAI: That is right. The prosecution in Silas John’s trial made a case that it is an Apache tradition for wrongdoers to leave their name somewhere at the scene of the crime to appease spirits. They never really made it clear what this tradition was supposed to be about.

And during the trial, many Apaches and even law enforcement officers from the reservation testified that they had never heard of such a tradition and that it didn’t exist. And Silas John himself made the point, “Why would I be proclaiming my innocence now at this trial if I had left my name at the scene of the crime?”

But the jury — it was an all-white jury. The trial was held in the federal courthouse in Globe — they didn’t know one way or the other, and they accepted the prosecution’s assertion about this tradition. And that was one of the important reasons why Silas John was convicted.

LAUREN GILGER: Yeah. So, I mean, we won’t talk about absolutely everything that happens here, but I want to pick up on something that you mentioned there, which was that it was an all-white jury, because this is a problem that I think still persists in Indian Country today. There are many wrongful convictions. It still remains a problem there. And Native people are very underrepresented on juries, even when it is a case involving a Native person, correct?

JACK EL-HAI: Yes. Nowadays, the court system on reservations is much more developed than it was then. At the time when this story plays out, all serious crimes — including murder — committed on a Native reservation were considered federal crimes. That means they had to be tried in a federal courthouse by a group of jurors who were in a federal pool. And that just by the nature of all of that excluded Native potential jurors.

LAUREN GILGER: You also report here, right, that there are still followers of the Holy Ground religious movement around today. It still exists. It still exists on the White Mountain Apache Reservation here in Arizona.

JACK EL-HAI: Yes, when I visited the reservation in the fall of 2024, I met with a medicine man who was leading Holy Ground ceremonies. I know there are also Holy Ground followers in the San Carlos Reservation. They are still out there — diminished in numbers, I would say, from the peak period in the 1920s. But it’s still important to many people and still gives many Apache people a foundation and a strong support for their cultural and religious identity.

LAUREN GILGER: So, Jack, I mean, I have to ask you before I let you go, what drew you to this particular story? I mean, it’s a story that not many people probably know anymore.

JACK EL-HAI: Very few people know it, and even when I visited the reservation, few people knew about it. The kind of story that attracts me is one that involves two primary characters who are sometimes working together and sometimes working at odds with one another. I like the sparks and the conflicts that develop between two characters like that.

And so, Silas John Edwards and Erle Stanley Gardner were perfect in that way, because in some ways, they were very different, of course, very different backgrounds, different worlds that they existed in. But they were also two men of about the same age who connected. And it was the realization for me of that connection that they had that clinched it for me, that I wanted to write about the two of them in partnership and to find out how did they work together.

LAUREN GILGER: Yeah. All right, we’ll leave it there. Jack El-Hai joining us, New York Times best-selling author. The new book is “The Case of the Autographed Corpse.” Jack, thank you so much for coming on The Show. I really appreciate it.

JACK EL-HAI: Oh, thank you, Lauren. It was great to be with you.

MARK BRODIE: Thanks for listening to The Show podcast. The Show is produced by Sativa Peterson, Nick Sanchez, Amber Victoria Singer and Ayana Hamilton. The Show was created by Jon Hoban. Our executive producer is Amy Silverman. You can find more of The Show and sign up for our newsletter at theshow.kjzz.org. You can also find us on Instagram @kjzztheshow.