KJZZ’s Friday NewsCap revisits some of the biggest stories of the week from Arizona and beyond.
To talk about Vice President Kamala Harris’ trip to the border, Gov. Katie Hobbs getting a chance to name a state Supreme Court justice and more, The Show sat down with Matthew Benson of the firm Veridus and former state lawmaker Aaron Lieberman.
Conversation highlights
MARK BRODIE: So immigration, Aaron, has been kind of a liability for Vice President Kamala Harris as she’s running for president now. Is it possible to make a dent in that by visiting Douglas?
AARON LIEBERMAN: Well, I just wonder what Republicans are going to talk about once she’s gone to the border, because that’s been the biggest talking point is, “Where’s she been? What’s she doing?”
I think she has a really good answer on this, which is they tried to get something done politically that would have actually solved the problem. And as she says, President [Donald] Trump wanted to run on a problem, not actually have a solution.
I think it’s a fair point, what took so long? Clearly the executive order has had a massive impact. Illegal crossings are way down. Should it have come sooner? Absolutely. But I think she’s at least kind of fighting to a draw.
What’s really happened on the immigration thing, honestly, is the Democrats have largely adopted the Republican position. Both parties, if you look at what they’re talking about, are really for pro-strengthening borders. Democrats actually want to get something done. And it seems like from the presidential politics perspective, Trump just wants to keep talking about it, to keep it alive as an issue.
BRODIE: Matt, safe to say Republicans will find something to talk about on immigration, even if Harris is at the border?
MATTHEW BENSON: Oh, there’s no doubt. I think it’s a mistake for Harris to be out here going to the border. I think every minute she spends talking about illegal immigration and border security is a lost opportunity for her because the record that the Biden and Harris administration have on this issue is so abysmal.
And Donald Trump, he’d love to have the focus of this campaign in the final 40 days to be on the border. And so I just think Kamala Harris is talking about an issue that’s a loser for her in a state that she is unlikely to win. And so I just think it’s mistake for her.
BRODIE: Is there something to be said — we hear a lot about, especially recently, candidates going to places where they know they’re not going to win but maybe try to lose by less. Is this maybe a worthwhile effort or not a worthwhile effort to try to at least sort of stem the tide a little bit for Harris?
BENSON: Look, illegal immigration has been her weakest issue. And so if we were having this conversation two months ago, weeks and weeks and weeks ago, fine. I could understand it. But at this point, after not visiting the border for so long now at the last minute to go do a photo op in Douglas, I just think it comes across craven and politically opportunistic. And I don’t think voters are going to buy it.
LIEBERMAN: She’s taking a page out of Trump’s playbook. Like in my neighborhood, Paradise Valley, there’s a lot of Republicans for Harris signs going up. And the reality is that’s who kind of decides our statewide elections. Those independents, those — I call them quite literally, and they got me elected to the Legislature, country club Republicans. Fiscally conservative, socially more moderate. I think they want to feel like Harris cares about this issue.
It’s super important on the Republican side. We see that in polling again and again and again. I think she tries to check the box and kind of get over that and neutralize that a little bit. Some of the polling numbers on the economy, she’s come way back. It’s been really interesting to see she’s kind of got that to an even.
And then you’re kind of left with the personality stuff. And most people don’t like Donald Trump’s personality. They feel like he’s kind of a crazy, weird guy. And if she can neutralize the things where he’s had this natural advantage and then make it be about Donald Trump and how kind of crazy he is, I think that’s a winning hand. And I hope she’ll squeak by just like President [Joe] Biden did here in Arizona.
BRODIE: But Aaron, to Matt’s point, doing this now with five or six weeks left until the election, does that do anything? Does it even check the box? Is this a missed opportunity, Matt was saying, maybe to talk about issues that she’s stronger on, where she might not get a lot of bang for the buck going to the border at this point?
LIEBERMAN: Look, politics is about showing up and getting your picture taken and showing people what issues you care about by where you’re spending your time. She’s showing that she cares about it. I just laugh because was it politically craven when Trump was at the border last week? You know what I mean? Like everyone’s trying to do the same thing.
And the reality of the situation is I think she’s trying to get it closer to neutral, to your point, and then give people permission to vote for her. My wife, who is not super into politics I will say, has a theory that where people you star in the polls underreport their Trump vote, that we might be heading towards an underreported Harris vote, where there’s a lot of people who just don’t like Trump enough but don’t totally feel comfortable voting for Harris. If this gets them over that hurdle, it could be the difference in her winning Arizona.
BRODIE: So Matt, Aaron kind of alluded to polls, and we’ve kind of seen them all over the place. We obviously know polls are a snapshot in time. And depending on how the questions are asked and who’s doing it and number of voters, margin of error — all of those are variables.
But I’m curious what you make at this point. It’s almost the beginning of October, and we’ve seen polls that show former President Trump up by 5. We’ve seen polls that show Vice President Harris up by a couple. What do you make of these polls being all over the place on the presidential level?
BENSON: In terms of Arizona, I think the general consensus, if you average these things out, is that Trump is ahead by a few points in Arizona. There was a poll out today that said he’s up 5. I don’t know whether that’s accurate, but I do suspect he is up by a few. And I think that is bolstered by looking at the other polls and seeing where he has made up ground against the Democrats, particularly among Hispanic voters and Hispanic men.
And that is a big problem in the Sun Belt for Kamala Harris. So I would suspect that Trump is in the pole position here.
BRODIE: Aaron, do you agree? If you had to be one of these candidates in Arizona right now, is it better to be Trump?
LIEBERMAN: Just to be clear, I couldn’t spend a minute inside the skin of Donald Trump. So I’m always going to say Harris in that one. But I think the reality is this is a lean-right state. And a more moderate, pragmatic Republican would win the state going away. That’s not who Donald Trump is. And again, it’s those kind of chaotic personality issues, zigzagging.
By the way, he’s also really old. I don’t know if anyone’s kept up. Bill Clinton, I think, is two years younger than him. He was elected president 30 years ago. I think a lot of that is starting to show, and that’s what’s putting the state in play, quite honestly.
Biden eked it out by the narrowest of margins. And I think Harris has a chance. Harris has actually been running, from an economic perspective, a much more conservative campaign than Biden was. She’s not talking about wealth taxes and all those other things. She’s talking about a tax cut for 100 million Americans. She’s talking about, I think there was a whole thing on starting small businesses and tax credits.
She’s actually playing more of that centrist economic music right now than Joe Biden was, for whatever reason. It’s kind of been interesting to see. To the extent to which anybody follows that and gets into that minutia is a whole 'nother question. But I think she definitely has a chance.
BRODIE: All right. So Matt, we’ve talked about the polls for president kind of all over the place. Polls in the U.S. Senate race are less all over the place. Most, if not all of them have shown that Ruben Gallego has at least a lead, oftentimes outside the margin of error, although not always. Do you see this race maybe a little less unpredictable at this point?
BENSON: Yeah, 100%. I think that the polling suggests that Ruben Gallego is up at least 5 points, and I won’t be surprised if he wins by 6 to 8. If Trump wins Arizona by a handful of points, it seems hard to believe that he would outperform Kari Lake by that much. But man, people seem to have really made up their minds about her.
After this campaign and the previous campaign for governor, I just don’t think there are that many undecided voters when it comes to Kari Lake. And, she has just bled a lot of support among the old McCain voters, of which there are many. And so that is really hurting her. And Ruben Gallego has run a smart campaign. He’s a combat Marine, and he is outspending her and outraising her about three-plus to one. So that’s a huge problem If you’re Kari Lake.
BRODIE: Once the campaign is over, there’ll be a lot of time to talk about who did what right and wrong. But I’m wondering, there was a lot of talk several months ago about Kari Lake figuring that she would have a lot of outside money to help supplement what she was able to raise.
And as some of those polls came in and showed Gallego with consistent leads, it seems like some of that money maybe didn’t come through to the extent she thought it would. And I wonder if maybe she was a little too reliant or her campaign has become a little too reliant on outside money, as opposed to money it is bringing in.
BENSON: I think it’s incumbent on every candidate to prove their viability. And she wasn’t able to do that. And the cascade of polls showing her down anywhere from 5, 10, 13 points. The Republicans nationally are trying to find out where’s the best bang for our buck. And it’s been in these other states.
LIEBERMAN: That money is ruthless. They look at a poll and say OK, they’re making choices around where to invest and where not to invest. And she’s clearly on the wrong side of that. I personally just desperately hope she continues running for elective office in Arizona. I think she’d be great for governor for next year. She's fantastic at winning Republican primaries.
BENSON: Don’t speak that into existence.
LIEBERMAN: Kari, just keep going. Three’s a charm. She's great at winning Republican primaries and really struggles in the main election. Hasn’t been a great fundraiser either, but it just gets to people are making really cold calculations. We’re seeing that on the other side now.
There’s an incredible amount of money flooding in here for (CD1 Democratic candidate) Amish Shah, for example, because he’s right in it. He could beat (Republican U.S. Rep. David) Schweikert for the first time. And we’re seeing millions and millions of dollars of ad buys by those same folks who are looking and saying, “Where can we make the biggest difference?” That money is coming from another market, where someone’s further behind and they're triaging and putting the chips where they think they can win.
BRODIE: Aaron, do you agree with Matt’s assessment that the the race for Senate seems to be, at least at this point, Gallego’s to lose?
LIEBERMAN: Yeah, for sure. I think Congressman Gallego has run a great race. He’s really leaned into his biography as a veteran, which he really deserves. He's run a very, very smart race, and he’s running against a candidate who just can’t get out of her own way in terms of getting to the middle. And I think that combination of things has been great for Congressman Gallego. And I think he’ll be a fantastic senator for Arizona.
