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Arizona is turning into a swing state. What’s behind the state’s new competitive status?

Terry Goddard (left) and Stan Barnes.
Amber Victoria Singer/KJZZ
Terry Goddard (left) and Stan Barnes.

Monday was the deadline for Arizonans to register to vote in next month’s election — we should know in the coming days the final tally of party affiliation before November.

In case you haven’t noticed — and honestly, it’d be pretty tough not to — Arizona is among a handful of swing states in this fall’s election. Along with states like Pennsylvania, Nevada, North Carolina, Georgia, Michigan and Wisconsin, Arizona has gotten a lot of attention from candidates and campaigns, not to mention the TV ads, mailings and texts that go along with that.

Democrats have had more electoral success here in recent years than they’ve had in the past, winning the top three elected statewide offices two years ago and two U.S. Senate seats over the past few years.

So, is Arizona really becoming more purple? Or even blue? Or is something else going on?

Stan Barnes, Republican and founder of Copper State Consulting, and Terry Goddard, Democrat and former state attorney general, joined The Show to discuss why Arizona has been such a swing state over the last few election cycles.

Conversation highlights

On Arizona’s swing-state status

STAN BARNES: I, if you want just one short to the point answer, I think it's the candidates. That's what I think. Yes, we're changing as a state. Our population is a great deal larger than it used to be, than it was when Bill Clinton last won way back in ‘96 or whatever the year was. And, and it's, it's more diverse as well. But I, I think those are secondary features in terms of our recent swing-state nature.

I think it is the Trump phenomenon itself, which we had to get to one point in the show is, is got to be one of the main factors of this. And that's my short answer.

TERRY GODDARD: My father was a perpetual optimist and, and at one time had the misfortune to be chairman of the Democratic Party in Arizona. And every year, every two years, he would say, “this is the year we're gonna, we're gonna take it, we're gonna win the majority in the Legislature.” And after a while I had to just sort of dismiss it as the ravings of a very optimistic and positive person who just wasn't in tune with reality, because it didn't happen and it was year after year after year.

But I think there's some things changing, but they may not be Republican, Democrat, things that are changing, I think. And I interviewed a member of the 25-year-old set, my son, this morning in preparation. And I said, “well, what are your colleagues thinking? What are they talking about?”

And his answer was, “well, it's not political parties.” You know, Generation Z, millennials are very independent. They're libertarian, I guess if you could name any particular affiliation and they're not organizational people. And so what they're looking at is far more issue oriented and I think that's reflected by the fact that the majority party now are independents in Arizona.

So how do you, what color are the independents? They're not red and they're not blue. And so I think we're moving more in a, could I dare say a color of beige or, or something? Something that's not either one.

BARNES: It doesn't get talked about enough, Mark, but Terry's right on point. The 20 years ago, 25 years ago, 30 years ago, Republicans had just over a million registered voters. Democrats had just under a million. And the, the independent or non-affiliated group, was way down in the 200,000-300,000 maybe. And then fast-forward to today and, and the, the major parties are roughly in the same point they always were. But the independent non affiliated guy is way up above them al, which, I mean, that, that all all by itself tells you that the point Terry is making is right is, it's not so much a partisan thing. It's, it's either generational or an attitude thing.

On Trump’s effect on Arizona

MARK BRODIE: So I want to ask you, Stan, about what you said about candidates. And I wonder if, is it too simplistic to say that the MAGA movement has made Arizona a swing state? Is that too simplistic?

BARNES: I don't think it's too simplistic to describe the last eight years because I think that's an absolute political fact. It's one reason we have a Democratic governor, democratic attorney general, Democratic secretary of state, the Legislature’s within one vote of itself. I mean, it, that's because of this phenomenon happening all around us, of the Trump phenomenon, for good or for ill. It has realigned many things and that's why we are where we are.

BRODIE: So, do you think then that if for example, Karrin Taylor Robson had won the GOP gubernatorial primary and let's say there was a U.S. Senate candidate not named Kari Lake and, or let's say a McCain Republican, a Doug Ducey-type Republican. Would we be talking about Arizona as a, a swing state?

BARNES: I, I don't think we would, but we're also trying to imagine something that, that could not exist in those elections. Doug Ducey couldn't win his own primary today and, and Kari Lake just managed to go for gubernatorial, television show to gubernatorial nominee to Senate nominee with barely getting out of bed, it seems, it was so easy for her, but she can't win a general election. And, and that's the phenomenon that's got us in the grip.

GODDARD: And a great county recorder can't get elected in his own party.

BRODIE: Stephen Richer, yeah.

GODDARD: So, one of the reasons why we need to, to think about the partisan primaries as being part of our problem is, is, is right there. Now, I, I think it may go back. I don't want to differ with Stan because I agree with him about the, you know, if you choose candidates the voters don't like, you're probably not gonna get him elected. It may be a little longer than that.

I've always thought that I got elected attorney general by my charm and, and, and physical beauty. But, yeah, good looks and hair, which I used to have.

[LAUGHS]

But, you know, the guy I ran against frankly had said in writing that women who put their children in daycare should be in prison. And, and that did not go down well with a lot of voters in Arizona and then he ended up with his troubles with the state Bar. But, you know, if you have the right opponent, you know, you can get elected.

BRODIE: So, Terry, do you agree though that if, let's say there are more quote unquote, “mainstream establishment republican candidates,” if there were Doug Ducey, Karrin Taylor Robson, and those kinds of candidates, would they be, would they be winning, and maybe would they be winning easily over Democratic candidates statewide?

GODDARD: Well, not in today's Republican party, as Stan says, they wouldn't get nominated.

BRODIE: But let's assume that they could, let's assume that they could get.

GODDARD: Well, and how are you going to do that?

BRODIE: We're talking hypotheticals here.

GODDARD: Let's assume black is white for the moment and, and, and go from there. I think Arizona is still … my political hero is a guy named Burton Barr, who was a pragmatist above all else.

BRODIE: Former speaker of the House.

GODDARD: Former speaker of the House, a strong Republican, former career military and one of the most amazing human beings I've ever known because he understood what it meant to govern. He, he, he, he relished what it meant to govern.

He liked to make things better and, you know, a guy like that, I think could be elected today tomorrow or next, but he couldn't get nominated by the Republican Party in what, 1980 … ‘86 … as governor, he was running for governor, he left the Legislature, but boy, he had all the qualifications in the world. So some of this is not new. Sometimes you just don't see the heroes when they're walking among you.

But I do think there's, there's some myopia, some MAGA mania, whatever it's called, that has caused some people to be nominated that just can't get elected.

BARNES: Mark. I think the point you're making is what, what is Arizona, or the point you're asking. And I say it's still a center right state. It still is. That if you want to be a statewide Democrat and win the U.S. Senate seat, you have to do what Ruben Gallego is doing right now and running to the right of Kari Lake on the border, if he can. He's trying to.

And, and you have to be like Kamala Harris is trying to do, talking about tax cuts for the middle class. When's the last presidential candidate on the Democratic side that emphasized that right out of the chute? I mean, to win in Arizona as a statewide Democrat today, you have to be a conservative-oriented person or perceived as such. And that's, I think that we haven't changed in that regard over the last few decades.

KJZZ's The Show transcripts are created on deadline. This text is edited for length and clarity, and may not be in its final form. The authoritative record of KJZZ's programming is the audio record.

Mark Brodie is a co-host of The Show, KJZZ’s locally produced news magazine. Since starting at KJZZ in 2002, Brodie has been a host, reporter and producer, including several years covering the Arizona Legislature, based at the Capitol.
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