KJZZ’s Friday NewsCap revisits some of the biggest stories of the week from Arizona and beyond.
To talk about all the political visitors we’ve had in Arizona this week, a Cochise County Supervisor taking a plea deal in the case surrounding her delay in certifying the 2022 election and more, The Show sat down with Barrett Marson, CEO of Marson Media; and Reginald Bolding, a former state lawmaker.
Conversation highlights
On high-profile campaign visits
MARK BRODIE: Let’s talk about all the frequent flier miles that candidates and surrogates and campaigns are getting traveling to Phoenix. We’ve had vice presidential nominee JD Vance, former President Bill Clinton, former President Trump. President Joe Biden will be here today. Tim Waltz will be here on Saturday. Donald Trump Jr. was here this week. Reginald, I guess this is just further proof that Arizona is important to both campaigns.
REGINALD BOLDING: Absolutely. Arizona is in play. When you look at polling data, and I think folks are starting to say “We feel like Arizona is trending toward Trump.” But then you start to see an onslaught of Trump surrogates. You see Harris surrogates. You see momentum that is bubbling out, and you see ballot returns. I think absolutely Arizona is in play.
And both of these candidates, they have Arizona circled on their map. And obviously they have different pathways to victory. But Arizona provides a backdoor strategy for both campaigns.
BRODIE: Is this sort of a rally the base kind of move? Are any of these people coming here bringing out maybe undecided voters or sort of the new voter, low propensity voter?
BARRETT MARSON: You know, it’s funny you should say that. I actually was at the Vance rally for a whole other reason. And I talked to a reporter, a national reporter who said he actually found an undecided voter in that crowd — at the Vance rally in Peoria at TYR Tactical.
He actually found an undecided. The husband was decided, and he was a Trump voter. But the wife hadn't yet decided. She was still listening. So it surprised me. If you’re going to go to a Vance rally, you might as well be a Trump supporter, right?
But look, the candidates don’t necessarily need to rally the base. They need to touch the people in the middle. And there’s definite enthusiasm on both sides here. Trump is bringing in big crowds, and so is Harris and all the surrogates. The Vance rally I attended, while a small place — TYR Tactical, only a few hundred people — still was overflow, right? People were turned away. So people are excited about this race, and we’ll over probably 80%, engagement this cycle.
BRODIE: But how many people are there, do you think, in the middle? There was that one that one person at the Vance rally who was undecided — is that the only person left in the state who’s undecided at this point?
MARSON: Honestly — this is not going to be a popular opinion — but I say if you’re undecided, maybe sit this one out. What more will it take for you to decide?
After nine years of Trump, we know exactly who he is. Even if we don’t know a lot about Harris, either you love Trump or you hate Trump. There really isn’t much of a middle ground when it comes to him. So what is there to really decide? If you are undecided, what's going to be the tipping point?
On undecided voters in Arizona
BRODIE: Reginald, we’ve heard so much about how the Harris campaign is still sort of in this — I mean, it’s been obviously a very condensed campaign because she got in less than 100 days ago. Usually at this point, candidates really get out the vote mode, like rally the base, get them to vote.
But she’s still kind of in that persuasion mode. Do you think that there is some persuasion left to do in Arizona? Are there people who are not decided yet — maybe they don’t like Trump but aren’t quite sold on her — that having former President Clinton, having Tim Wallz here, if (Harris) comes back, could make a difference?
BOLDING: I think so. Look, there are individuals who are still trying to understand who Kamala Harris is. I think she’s laid out really strong policy plans. And I just wanted to first say, I think she’s being held to a totally different standard than Trump. He has all of these half-baked policies, policies that he’s trying to form, where she’s like being required to come up with real substantive policies, which she’s doing.
And I do think that right now, the folks who are deciding whether or not they’re going to vote for Harris, they’re trying to get more policy information, which she’s delivering upon. But my hope, though, is that at the end of the day you’re asking yourself where do you want this country to go?
I don’t think it’s a coincidence that over the last 10 years that you’ve seen a more polarized environment. You can’t sit down with your coworker and have conversations about politics, and you liken that directly to Trump’s candidacy and him serving as president. And I think folks are ready to really move past that.
MARSON: I will say in my 53 years on this planet, I have never seen a more polarized group of people that when someone is wearing a red MAGA hat, a Democrat, a left-leaning person might look at that person just think “idiot.” And and vice versa when a Republican might see someone wearing a Kamala hat or talking about some liberal positions, they will just think of that person as a bad person.
And it is a shame that we can’t — I yearn for the days, if you will, of a George Bush and even near Bill Clinton, where at least we could have conversations about the peccadilloes that each of them had and the policy differences that were out there without hating the person that you’re talking to.
On the latest poll numbers
BRODIE: Let me ask you about a couple of polls that came out. Obviously polls, snapshots in time. And there’s all sorts of warnings about “Don’t really listen to the polls,” especially as you get this close to the election because votes have been cast there. Votes are already in the bank.
But there are two that were pretty interesting. One from HighGround, local firm, showed that Trump was leading Harris 46.8% to 46.2%. A Marist Poll found Trump leading Harris 50-49. So both basically within a point of each other.
But significantly, we see we’ve seen polls all over the place. You’ve seen Harris up by a couple, we’ve seen Trump up by a couple. Is this surprising to you that it’s this narrow, this close to the election, Reginald?
BOLDING: I don’t think so. I mean, if you look at four years ago, the race was decided by less than 11,000 votes. I’m a strong believer that if the Harris campaign and those who are working to elect Vice President Harris, if they can turn out the base, if they can turn out individuals who really believe in Harris and her policy, I think Arizona goes for Harris.
But if they can’t, if that doesn’t happen, then I do think that election night could be a long one.
MARSON: You’ve got to remember: Even in 2016, when Trump won the state, he did not reach 50%. He’s yet to get to 50% in the state. However, that all being said, I think it’s Harris who has the greater headwinds here in Arizona.
You kind of want to talk about the economy and illegal immigration. Those are the two things that are top of mind for voters. And voters remember four or five years ago that they could buy a house at 3%, maybe even sub-3% interest rate, where they could afford the mortgage payment. Today it’s really difficult to move in this town, in the Phoenix area. Remember, Phoenix had the highest inflation of all the country, and that was right here in the Phoenix MSA.
People remember that. And rightly or wrongly, they’re going to blame the Democratic administration. And they’re going to remember what it was like under Trump. Most people do not remember tweets or how they felt when Trump would say something crazy. They didn’t pay attention to that.
BRODIE: Even with the quantity of the tweets and the statements. As you said, people either love Trump or hate him — most of them anyway. Not everybody, but most people either love him or hate him. And for a lot of people who don’t like him, it’s because of the tweets. It’s because of calling people low IQ or like calling them names and the derogatory and frankly just mean things he says about them.
MARSON: But look, Mark, obviously the listeners here at KJZZ are very well informed people. But there are a lot of low-information voters. People who get home from work, they’ve got to get their kids ready for volleyball practice, and they’ve got to make dinner, and they’ve got to pay bills, find some time to relax and watch “The Bachelor.” You know, they are too busy.
BRODIE: Are you describing your Tuesday night?
MARSON: That’s neither here nor there.
People are kind of busy to watch CNN all day long or a couple hours at night. And so you are relying on all voters knowing that Trump likes Hitler’s generals, right? That hasn’t necessarily seeped into the broader electorate. Sure again, people who watch CNN or MSNBC or listen to KJZZ, absolutely they’re hearing that. But that’s not everyone, right? That is not a majority of voters.
On Harris’ headwinds
BRODIE: So Reginald, as Barrett said, he thinks that Vice President Harris has the stronger headwinds here. And obviously, when you’re thinking about the border and you’re thinking about the economy, which a lot of voters are thinking about, polls have shown that more people think former President Trump will do a better job on those. So if you’re the Harris campaign, how do you try to overcome that?
BOLDING: I think you actually describe what it was like when Donald Trump was president. To be completely transparent, Donald Trump came in riding off the coattails of President Barack Obama’s economy. And then when you look at the last year or so of the Trump presidency, the economy was essentially falling apart. Obviously he’ll have COVID and other things that played a factor there.
MARSON: It wasn’t COVID and other things. It was COVID. And I don’t think voters blame Trump for COVID.
BOLDING: They they might, they might not. But I do think the reality is Trump came in, and he talked about immigration being a primary central issue when he ran for office. He was there for four years. He didn’t do anything about it.
MARSON: I would say there’s a part of a wall that shows he did something.
BOLDING: And then we also know that he said Mexico was going to pay for it. They didn’t pay a penny. And then you also had this idea that he was going to provide jobs and opportunities for minority communities. It didn’t happen. So you remind people of actually what Trump was saying back in 2020, 2016 and ask, did he deliver? And ultimately he didn’t.
MARSON: And here’s the problem with some Democrats, they are denying reality. As Reg should know, Trump is getting a higher percentage of the African American vote and the Latino vote than almost any Republican in the past.
BOLDING: That’s questionable. That’s 100% questionable, but depends on what polls that you’re looking at.
MARSON: I look at the New York Times, I look at almost every poll that shows that.
BOLDING: But you got to look at the crosstabs, and you have to look at pollsters who actually spend time polling in the African American community. And what you automatically see is that 10 years ago and today, there’s no significant difference when you talk about statistical issues with regards to Black men or Latino men who are voting for Trump.
MARSON: I think you see it here in Arizona with Kari Lake and Donald Trump. Trump is leading or tied with Harris, and Lake is way down. I think that’s a lot because of the Hispanic community, Hispanic men specifically.
BOLDING: I want to push back on that, because I think ultimately, once you see every election cycle, you have folks who say, “Well, if Harris wins, then it was white, middle-class women, swing voters who deliver the victory. But if we have a race where a Democrat loses, you know, Hispanic and Black men. We can’t have it both ways.
The reality is, when you look at the cross numbers and pollsters, the reason why Trump is doing much better is because white women in suburban communities, they’re not directly lining up behind Harris the way that they did for Biden. So we can’t have it both ways. It can’t be swing voters delivered when Democrats win but then if Democrats lose, it’s minority voters.
