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More Californians are moving to AZ. What impact does it have on elections?

A sign welcoming visitors to Arizona
KJZZ
A sign welcoming visitors to Arizona on eastbound Interstate 10.

If you’ve lived in Arizona for any amount of time, you’ve probably seen the phrase “Don’t California my Arizona.” From politics to bumper stickers, it’s become a common sentiment as we’ve seen housing prices rise and more and more Californians move here.

In 2022, more than 74,000 Californians moved to Arizona. Heading into a big election in just a few weeks, Seema Mehta, a political reporter for The Los Angeles Times, wondered what political impact they might have.

Mehta recently reported on the influx of Californians to the Grand Canyon State and how they might tilt the state’s battleground politics. She joined The Show to talk about why people come here to begin with.

Full conversation

SEEMA MEHTA: There's a couple different reasons. I mean, the one that came out most was lower cost of housing because, you know, housing prices in California, particularly in the LA area, the Bay Area, you know, they've just exploded so much. I mean, it's really unaffordable for a lot of people or yeah, you have people who are making pretty decent salaries who are just like sort of still struggling almost living paycheck to paycheck even though they, you, you have a couple who's making each making six figures.

So, yeah, so the cost housing was, was the most dominant reason and just general affordability because whether it's gas prices or, I mean, obviously if you move to Arizona, your wages could be, they're less than what you may make in California. But the cost of living is significantly less in Arizona. So, so that was the most dominant thing we heard.

The other thing we heard was just sort of unhappiness about some things that you hear about a lot in California, about, you know, the homeless problem, crime. You know, there's some of these things, if you look at the statistics, it's actually not borne out by the facts, like crime in the ‘90s was much worse than it is now. But there is a feeling, I don't know if it's because of social media or coverage or like, you know, Nextdoor, you know, those types of things where there's a lot, a number of people, a large group of people that are, are really concerned about the number of homeless people. You see, you know, in the streets of LA and the streets of San Francisco.

San Francisco in particular, you know, problems with drugs and fentanyl, and then also crime. I mean, you, you see these smash and grab robberies at, you know, Targets and department stores. And I think San Francisco is another great example where you have all these large shops that were once, like, really big, beautiful shops, like in the, you know, in the middle of the city that have closed because A, they don't have as many shoppers going to them. But also because of all the problems they've had with people coming in just, you know, stealing lots of stuff.

LAUREN GILGER: Yeah. So let's talk about where this intersects with politics, right? Like, tell us about some of the people who you profiled in this piece who have moved to Arizona. California is an overwhelmingly Democratic state, but lots of Republicans obviously live there as well. Was everyone who you talked to, who moved to Arizona from California Democrat?

MEHTA: No. So, I mean, I talked to both Democrats and Republicans and you're right. I mean, California is so overwhelmingly Democratic but because it's such a big state, you know, the state has like 5 million plus Republican registered voters, which is the most registered Republicans of any state that ask you your party preference.

So, and I think that often gets overlooked because of how blue, you know, California's politics are, how blue the state elected leaders are in terms of the people I talked to, I talked to people from both parties who have moved there and it's interesting, I mean, they, they share a number of the same concerns about, you know, the cost of living in California. So there's sort of some of the reasons they moved to Arizona were similar or had some overlap, but their political views really differed dramatically.

One woman I spoke with Michelle, I mean, she and her husband are, you know, they're registered Democrats there from the Bay Area. They moved largely because of affordability issues. And she has a beautiful house in Scottsdale with, you know, gorgeous views of the mountains and, and she was talking about, you know, I think she said she paid under $700,000 for it. And she was like, when we moved here, we couldn't believe, you know, what we were able to afford that.

You know, whereas, you know, in California we, they were constantly getting outbid and, you know, people warned her, her friends in California, like, if you get out of the housing market in California, you're never gonna be able to get back in. And she's sort of like, I don't want to like that. She's very happy. She's Democratic. You know, a lot of her neighbors are not, which has led to some, I think at times intense conversations, although it seems like polite conversations. Like it, it doesn't seem like it's ever, you know, sort of gone off the deep end.

And she's also really found a community there that, you know, that she adores. Like, you know, she first started meeting people in the neighborhood through like the local women's like Bunko group. She has a really good relationships with their neighbors and she just loves the natural beauty, you know, seeing shooting stars at night and hearing coyotes and seeing, you know, jackrabbits. And so she has really fallen in love with her life there, but she also brought her Democratic values. And so when Joe Biden won the state in 2021 one of her friends from Oakland texted her and was like, see you did it. And she's like, well, it's not just me, but, you know, there is a possibility that some of these Californians who moved to Arizona helped the president win the state four years ago.

GILGER: Right. Right. So let's talk about that and some of the tensions that you hinted at there that have popped up because of this, like anybody in Arizona has heard the phrase “Don't California Arizona.” There is tension around the number of Californians who have moved here. Republican politicians will often use this kind of mode of attack. What's that look like for the Californians who have moved here?

MEHTA: Actually one other woman, I spoke with Patricia, she was walking with her daughter and her daughter's dog and, I think they were also walking in Scottsdale, and an older gentleman walked by and sort of said, where are you from? And the daughter responded California. He was pretty much like, you know, we don't want your liberal values here. You don't belong here. And, you know, she replied that she's a Republican.

So there is, I mean, there is tension and it's not just about the politics. I think it's also about the idea of Californians moving there and changing the culture of the state, which I mean, it seems like Arizonans are very, very proud of their state's history and, and culture. And so I think it goes beyond politics in terms of people's concerns about what this influx of Californians is going to mean for Arizona's future.

GILGER: Yeah. OK. So let's get to that political question here, which is at the center of your reporting, like is there any way of polling to kind of get at your thesis here? Which is how have these Californians who have come to Arizona affected politics here and how might they affect this upcoming election?

MEHTA: It's hundreds of thousands in the last several years. So it is a significant number of people and the thing is we don't fully know statewide. I mean, I think in talking to political experts, you know, they do believe that they see in certain areas, certain more urban or more dense areas that they see that the influx sort of creating these areas to be like more liberal. And in certain rural areas, they see them and even in some suburban areas, they see that it's actually creating a more conservative areas. So we, they have evidence of changes in various swaths of the state, but we don't know, overall statewide what it means. And that's, I think the question that is going to need to be studied in coming years.

GILGER: Yeah. So Californians who are more progressive might move to the center of Phoenix and sort of be among like-minded people. But you might see more, more Republican-leaning Californians move to those outskirts.

MEHTA: Right. It's again people sort of tend to insert themselves. And this is another example of that.

GILGER: Let me ask you lastly here, what you're watching for heading into November, Seema, as we continue to see Californians move here and you know, there's kind of this long history of tension between the two states. Do you think there will be an impact?

MEHTA: I think that's what we're waiting to see. I honestly don't think we know yet. But I think it's something that a lot of people are going to be watching because it is such a large number of people and there's no indication that this influx is gonna stop anytime soon. I mean, it's not like the cost of living in California is going down. So, so it's, it's only gonna grow potentially exponentially.

So I don't know if after the 2024 election, if we'll be able to definitively say what effects it had. But I do think it's something that, you know, researchers and political experts and strategists are really gonna study to try to figure out, “hey, you know, what kind of impact does it have?” And B, if it is having an impact one way or the other of what they can do to pass, counter it, depending on what they're, what party they're in or what type of messaging they're doing to sort of try to get these people into their camp.

KJZZ's The Show transcripts are created on deadline. This text is edited for length and clarity, and may not be in its final form. The authoritative record of KJZZ's programming is the audio record.

Lauren Gilger, host of KJZZ's The Show, is an award-winning journalist whose work has impacted communities large and small, exposing injustices and giving a voice to the voiceless and marginalized.
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