Election Day is less than a week away. But, voters in Arizona have been turning in ballots since the beginning of October.
So far, total returns add up to over 2 million, according to a database created by Sam Almy, a Democratic Strategist with Uplift Strategies.
Every election cycle, he tracks early ballots by party, by age, by gender and more. Almy joined The Show to discuss.
Full conversation
LAUREN GILGER: Good morning there, Sam.
SAM ALMY: Hi Lauren. Thanks for having me on.
GILGER: Thanks for coming on. OK. So let's start with the big picture numbers here right now. We've got about 1.8 million ballots tracked on your database. How does this look in terms of turnout compared to years past?
ALMY: That, that's great. I updated right before I came on and we're over that 2 million mark right now.
GILGER: It went fast.
ALMY: Yes. Yeah, Maricopa had a big file today. Turnout is now at 46.4% statewide. And that looks really in line, it's actually ahead of where we were in 2016, but a little bit behind where we were in 2020 where, of course, everybody was voting by mail.
GILGER: Interesting. OK. So let's break this down by party. You also track turnout rates by party. Where do each of them stand at this point?
ALMY: Right now, Democrats and Republicans are tied in overall turnout at 53.3%, and then independents and other third parties are coming in at 33.8%.
GILGER: OK. OK. So even if they are tied right now, in terms of turnout, like, you know, the number of voters within each party that are voting early, Republicans have a big voter registration advantage in our state that's gotten even bigger it sounds like.
ALMY: Yeah, absolutely. I mean, I think that's the story of this election . In both 2016 and 2020 Republicans had about a 150,000 voter advantage registered voter right now. It's double that, closer to 300,000. And as a result, their ballot advantage over Democrats is they've returned 155,000 more ballots than Democrats.
GILGER: OK. So in your opinion, how could Dems pull out a win in Arizona? How did they do it in 2020?
ALMY: Well, I think in 2020 our big success was voting by mail. But what we're seeing now is sort of a back to more traditional pre pandemic voting patterns where we're gonna see an electorate more similar to 2016. So Democrats are really going to rely on lots of poll voters and early ballot drop-offs, which is a success, a success we saw in 2018.
GILGER: OK. OK. So if we're looking toward Election Day, we've already seen a little more than half of voters for each party already vote, right? Turnouts looking pretty high, 46% overall. What does this mean for? How long lines might be? What overall turnout we're expecting?
ALMY: For overall turnout, I did a little napkin math yesterday and I got about 75%. I think earlier this year, I was looking at 77%. So I think that's gonna be my, my range as my turnout estimate. As for lines at the polls, we may see a little hiccups here and there probably at the start of elections, But with so many counties, Maricopa and Pima in particular, adopting this vote center model, we're gonna have a lot fewer problems at the polls with ID. You went to the wrong location and a lot fewer provisional ballots because of these vote centers that we have.
GILGER: OK. OK. So let's narrow in on some of the demographic trends that you're watching here as these early ballots come in. Politicos are always saying that young voters don't turn out. What are we seeing on that front so far?
ALMY: Well, it, it's, it's like that, Arizona, like many, many sunbelt states, the older voters are definitely voting in force. That's something we typically see. Right now baby boomers, that generation makes up 42% of all returns. If you're looking at millennials and Gen Z, they make up about 23% of returns. That being said two weeks ago, boomers were 54% of the vote, and millennials and Gen Z were 12%. So it does get younger and I do expect it to continue that trend to get younger as we approach Election Day.
GILGER: More young voters voting now. OK. The big story that many are predicting nationally, at least that will come out of this election is, is the gender gap, right? The majority of women say they'll vote for Harris in these national polls. The majority of men say they'll vote for Trump, but women traditionally vote in higher numbers. Is that holding true in what you're seeing so far in these early numbers in Arizona?
ALMY: Yeah, that, that's something that's held true for a number of years in Arizona. Right now, women are turning out at 46% men at 44%, but women have returned almost 100 and 20,000 more ballots around the state.
GILGER: So let's zoom in before I let you go on a few of the competitive districts we're watching this election cycle in terms of congressional races for a moment. In CD1, we have a close race between Democrat Amish Shaw and incumbent Republican David Schweikert. What's turnout looking like there and how might that affect the race?
ALMY: Sure, So turnout is right now it's at 56.6%. So a little, a little bit higher than statewide. You expect that in the competitive district. It is a higher turnout district compared to 2020. They're, they're actually ahead of where they were by a couple of points in turnout. When we look at the Democrat to Republican ballot advantage, Republicans have a return advantage of about 30,000 ballots right now.
GILGER: OK. OK. Let's turn quickly then in the last minute here to southern Arizona CD6 where we have a tight predicted race between Democratic challenger Kirsten Engel and Republican Juan Ciscomani. What's turnout looking like there?
ALMY: Again, another high turnout race right now. They're at 50.1% in overall turnout. This, like you mentioned, this race is close. Democrats have the slightest ballot advantage of 640 right now.
GILGER: All right. 640. Very close. And of course, changing all the time.
