Democrats had banked on abortion as a winning issue for them this election cycle. Vice President Kamala Harris talked about abortion rights with passion. With Proposition 139 on the ballot here in Arizona, politicos thought it might push the state in her favor — and maybe bring some down-ballot candidates along with her. After all, we saw Democrats, on the tails of the repeal of Roe v. Wade, win across the country just two years ago.
But, that’s not what happened this year. Harris lost handily to now President-elect Donald Trump, who appointed the Supreme Court Justices who overturned Roe.
But, abortion rights are clearly popular here and across the country. So why didn’t that translate to Democratic wins?
Shefali Luthra, reproductive health reporter for the 19th and author of "Undue Burden: Life and Death Decisions in Post-Roe America," joined The Show to discuss.
Full conversation
SHEFALI LUTHRA: This is actually very similar to what we saw in states where both abortion was on the ballot and the presidential campaign. There were 10 states where people voted directly on abortion, and pretty consistently people voted for abortion in seven out of those 10 states, and Donald Trump also won in many cases or made serious gains even in states that are typically blue, like New York.
And what this shows us is that people feel very comfortable splitting or in a way depolarizing abortion. They will vote for abortion rights, but that's not the same thing as picking to vote for Democrats. They view abortion in some ways as a nonpartisan issue, and some of them even trust Donald Trump, not to ban abortion if that is something they don't want to happen.
LAUREN GILGER: That's interesting. OK, so it seems like people are separating the issue from the candidates and even from the parties in this case. But Trump is interesting. What did we hear from voters heading into this election about what they thought about Trump and abortion. I mean, he was the person who appointed the Supreme Court justices who overturned Roe v. Wade.
LUTHRA: Trump did a pretty good job kind of muddying the waters around how people perceive him with connection to abortion because he did brag about appointing those justices, but he also said he would veto any national abortion ban. He didn't weigh in specifically on other potential avenues he could have to restrict access to abortions, such as leveraging the FDA or the DOJ to impose national restrictions, but the fact that he said he would veto this ban, it really permeated.
Because a lot of voters would look at him, especially independent, undecided voters, and they would say things like, “Well, I don't think he would ban abortion. I think he's paid for abortions in his life.” And so he had this kind of immunity to abortion politics that other Republicans don't have. They actually trusted him on abortion more than they might any other Republican candidate, and so their concerns about the issue didn't necessarily stop them from voting for him.
GILGER: Yeah, OK, so let's talk about the Harris campaign and that side of this spectrum. Because that was a campaign that ran heavily on abortion. I mean, we saw ad after ad after ad in Arizona about women who had been harmed by the 15 week abortion law that is on the books now here and for not just the abortion measure on the ballot, which expands those rights substantially, but also for Harris on and her candidacy protecting abortion rights. Did they bank too much on abortion as an issue that would turn out voters for her in particular?
LUTHRA: I don't know that we can say that. I think it's still really early for us to make big sweeping claims about what would or wouldn't have won the election for Vice President Harris, and that's in part because this was a really tough election for a Democrat to win, especially someone who was tied to a very unpopular administration.
When we look at the final count of the popular vote, Trump won the popular vote, but not by a huge margin. And what I think that shows us is this was pretty close for a lot of voters, and Harris ran a race that emphasized abortion, which was an important issue for a lot of people, and a lot of people did really trust her on it. The problem is that the economy was also a really big concern for people, and they preferred Trump on that.
GILGER: So I want to ask you one question about what happens specifically here in Arizona and as you mentioned, in other states where abortion rights were literally on the ballot in initiatives as well.
Was this a case in which abortion almost backfired on Democrats? Like people felt like it did, they didn't need to vote for an abortion-friendly candidate because they could at the same time, on the same ballot, vote to protect abortion rights in our state.
LUTHRA: That's a theory that a lot of folks have been exploring, and there's probably some truth to this because people saw, especially in 2022 and 2023, that when abortion was on the ballot, it won. This was the first election post-Dobbs, where a couple of abortion ballot measures actually lost in Florida and in Nebraska and in South Dakota.
But so people came into this election with a level of comfort. They believed, “if abortion is left up to the states, well, I can vote for abortion protections in my state and it will be secure, and I don't necessarily need to vote at the top of the ticket to also guarantee that right.”
And that doesn't take into account necessarily other factors. For instance, if we saw national restrictions on abortion, those would trump state protections, and many states with abortion restrictions don't have popular ballot measure or processes. So a state like Texas, voters can't undo their abortion restrictions there, their near-total abortion ban.
But if you're in Arizona, if you're in a state like Florida where the ballot measure failed, but 57% of voters came out in favor of it. What it tells you is I have a way to make my voice heard on this issue without changing who I vote for for president.
GILGER: Yeah. Let me ask you then about what's next, right? Like what's next for abortion rights in Arizona and nationally, like what are you watching for under a Trump administration on the abortion front?
LUTHRA: In Arizona right now, this ballot measure passed, but ballot measures don't take effect right away. So if you look up abortion law in Arizona right now, It's still legal up to 15 weeks, as is allowed by the law that was passed by the state Legislature and signed by the former governor. But what we will now see is a process of litigation through the state courts in which abortion providers and other folks with interest in the matter can file suit challenging the existing abortion laws and restrictions. And rely on this ballot measure that became a constitutional amendment to get it overturned.
This is an ongoing process that happens in every state when they enact ballot measures to protect abortion rights. You then go through the actual implementation, which can take months. It can take years. It also means rebuilding up access, which in some cases can be weakened because of the impact of restrictions while they're in effect. That's what we'll be watching for in Arizona.
Nationally, I'm thinking a lot, a lot about who is appointed to the Cabinet, who is appointed to advise Donald Trump in different ways, and what we see from lawmakers on Capitol Hill. There is some chatter that some Republicans believe that since they didn't lose the majority in the House, since they gained the Senate, they gained the White House, some of them think maybe abortion isn't this albatross that they were very concerned it might be.
I don't think that's true because we saw that voters largely support abortion rights. But we very well could see lawmakers emboldened to pursue restrictions. We very well could see the executive branch try and take steps to limit access. That is one thing I'll be watching.
And I also think it's worth keeping an eye on states like Texas, like Louisiana, like Florida, like Mississippi. To see if they go further, will they move beyond in Florida their 6-week ban in Texas or Mississippi or Louisiana, their near-total ban to enact even more stringent restrictions, and what effects will those have on people's lives?
